[Closed] NL 50$ - AK preflop

By the way I want to post the results here.

In white

SMOKINACESS07 shows [Js Jc]
52RAVENS shows [Qh Qs]
FLOP [Kh Th 8h]
Hero: folded AK
TURN [Kh Th 8h] [3h]
RIVER [Kh Th 8h 3h] [9h]
SMOKINACESS07 shows a flush, King high
52RAVENS shows a flush, King high
52RAVENS wins the pot ($97.65) with a flush, King high
SMOKINACESS07 is sitting out

Well, unless one of them has 1 PFR or smthing, fold is not the best option. You have to win in 30% of the time.

My thoughts about this hand:

on the one hand action looks very strong... MP1 doesn`t respect our very early bet, therefore, we can conclude that he is holding a monster. even if you are against those kind of hands (JJ+, AKs, AKo) you still have 38% equity.
The thing is - its not always the case, especially on this limit... If MP1 is a bit loose or playing badly then situation may be completely different.

button`s reraise looks even stronger, but again, both players have deep stack. That means if BU feels MP1 is weak or weaker then he is, your presence in the pot won`t deter him from playing against MP1, even if he realizes that you are likely stronger.

My point is - when you are shorstack, action behind you is not always an indication of ultimate strenght, even if it looks wild, like in your example...

Anyway, if we assume that both players hold monsters (JJ+, AKs, AKo) we still have 20% equity... therefore, I would call unless I have any reads (PFR%)

They were both holding monsters, JJ and QQ.

Did u see the result? It was pretty sick to me to see that , lol, but I can´t be results oriented.

Let me try to conclude then, the point here is, basically about reads and stats?

If I know that both players are some kind of tight and may be holding monsters its ok to fold? And if they are just overaggro or loose then I can call. Ok?

By the way, ,thank you, nice post there.

well, I don`t check results before posting, since it can possibly affect my evaluation) and I forgot to check them after)

The main idea is "shallow thinking", which means that SS player should think on zero and first level (sometimes):

0 - what you have
1 - what your opponents have
---------------------------------------
2 - what your opponent likely thinks you have
3 - what your opponent likely thinks you think he has

while thinking deeper (on level 2) sometimes may lead to wrong conclusion, because of the reasons i explained in my previous post.

I would say you are likely making a mistake by folding here... since, if first player`s range is JJ+, AKs, AKo and other is holding a hand like AQ, AJ - your call is justified...

therefore, the only situation where you can afford folding AK is where both opponents have PFR 1% (AA, KK) which is not likely to happen)

btw, against QQ and JJ you have 36% equity, which is 6% more than you need) so you can be happy with your +EV move)

It was pretty sick to me to see that , lol, but I can´t be results oriented.

you have to be EV oriented and EV wise your move is totally correct. EV has nothing to do with results... Every time we make +EV move we gain, conversely, every time you make -EV move (in your case it is fold) you loose.

EV (knowing the results):
call: 0.36*(16.5$) - 0.64*(7.25$) = 5.94$ - 4.64$ = + 1.3 $
fold: 1* (-2$) = - 2$

btw, against QQ and JJ you have 36% equity, which is 6% more than you need) so you can be happy with your +EV move"

Hi You say you need only 30% - Why is that and how do you get to that number ?

Also I assume you get the 36% from a program such as Equilator ?

Thanks

Originally posted by Taswell
Hi You say you need only 30% - Why is that and how do you get to that number ?

Those are pot odds converted in %.
Pot odds: 2.27:1 = 1 / (2.27+1) = 20%

Yes, for equity calculations I use equilator or pokerstove.