What happened to me was, I had AQ (two overcards) and my opponent was double-barrelling every turn, so I re-raised him on the turn, and he had middle pair or something. I still think I made a poor move, considering he very well might have been pot committed when I did it.
When you reach the money in an STT, you do need to open up your play, but yeah, I wouldn't recommend opening it up that much.
It's worth discussing whether pushing with only overcards once you're ITM really is a poor move or not. I guess it depends on your goal--mincashing or making it to 1st place. If your goal is finishing high up, then more care is called for, but if you're happy to mincash, then ITM is the time to cut loose and go crazy.
In MTTs the goal is clearly to make it to the serious money, as such a long time can pass between cashes. But in an STT, cashes occur about 20% of the time for a decent player, so sometimes I guess a mincash is acceptable if the risk you're taking to double your stack is worth it.
Would love to know what others think on this point.
Hey, its all good part of the learning process.....hey like belayd said if u cashed u cashed... alot of things happen in poker... nobody knows, im a beginner too...
Don't dread on it......... hey had u made your hand kudos..... IT IS WHAT IT IS
good luck.... im blasted
@nativehero: Thanks man. I think. 
Originally posted by belayd
It's worth discussing whether pushing with only overcards once you're ITM really is a poor move or not. I guess it depends on your goal--mincashing or making it to 1st place. If your goal is finishing high up, then more care is called for, but if you're happy to mincash, then ITM is the time to cut loose and go crazy.In MTTs the goal is clearly to make it to the serious money, as such a long time can pass between cashes. But in an STT, cashes occur about 20% of the time for a decent player, so sometimes I guess a mincash is acceptable if the risk you're taking to double your stack is worth it.
Would love to know what others think on this point.
There are generally two schools of thought on this, I find. The first is this: "Well, I've already made 1.8 BI, and second place is +0.9 BI, so I can definitely go for the win, as second place only gives me half again as much as what I've already won."
The second, and my one is "I'm guaranteed 1.8 BI now, so let's remove that from the table. It's irrelevant. Second place gives me 0.9 BI, and first place gives me triple that. So while I should play for first, I shouldn't push with crap because I'm already in the money."
Also, hate to say it Belayd, but 20% cashes for STT's will get you broke real fast 
If you finish first-ninth in equal frequency, you'll get a cash percentage of 33.3%. So you need at least like, 36-37%+ cashes to win out. I presume that's just a typo or math derp though
In a FT STT the prize structure is 33% anyway, so cashing 33% of the time should be a matter of simple random distribution. So you're saying that cashing a mere 37% of the time is enough to show a profit?
As for the other question, I understand your reasoning. Thanks
@belayd To be honest, I just estimated that number. Upon further reflection, I figure that it really depends on your finish distribution. If you happen to be really bad at heads-up, and only win 33% of them, you'll need a much larger ITM percentage than if you're a god at heads-up and win 66% of them, since on average each ITM is worth more in the hands of the second player. I have a 38% ITM with a 7% ROI at the moment, but thanks to variance I have a lot more 1sts than I do 2nds and 3rds, so who knows?
--------------------------------------------------
Just tried to come up with a chart that would roughly estimate my ICM ranges in most common situations, using the ICM trainer. First I started with the variables of:
Stack size? (Big, Medium, Small)
Effective stack size? (12, 10, 8, 6, 4 BB)
Position?
First in or calling?
4 or 3 handed?
And went from there. That led to a 210-range chart. Prepared to spend all night on it, I then realised that shoving a medium stack was very different when you covered them to when they covered you, and split the medium stack in half. 280-range chart. Then I figured out I couldn't get 12-BB short stacks in ICM trainer, and I gave up.
So that's how I spent the last hour. ICM: Complex as hell. Attempt to chart it, and YOU WILL GO MAD.
Not playing Poker today, but I shall play some tomorrow. And I'll have to keep learning ICM, as there do not appear to be any quick fixes to learning it. Ah well.
Thanks for reading!
Originally posted by Salivanth
@belayd To be honest, I just estimated that number. Upon further reflection, I figure that it really depends on your finish distribution. If you happen to be really bad at heads-up, and only win 33% of them, you'll need a much larger ITM percentage than if you're a god at heads-up and win 66% of them, since on average each ITM is worth more in the hands of the second player. I have a 38% ITM with a 7% ROI at the moment, but thanks to variance I have a lot more 1sts than I do 2nds and 3rds, so who knows?--------------------------------------------------
Just tried to come up with a chart that would roughly estimate my ICM ranges in most common situations, using the ICM trainer. First I started with the variables of:
Stack size? (Big, Medium, Small)
Effective stack size? (12, 10, 8, 6, 4 BB)
Position?
First in or calling?
4 or 3 handed?And went from there. That led to a 210-range chart. Prepared to spend all night on it, I then realised that shoving a medium stack was very different when you covered them to when they covered you, and split the medium stack in half. 280-range chart. Then I figured out I couldn't get 12-BB short stacks in ICM trainer, and I gave up.
So that's how I spent the last hour. ICM: Complex as hell. Attempt to chart it, and YOU WILL GO MAD.
Not playing Poker today, but I shall play some tomorrow. And I'll have to keep learning ICM, as there do not appear to be any quick fixes to learning it. Ah well.
Thanks for reading!
Interesting blog and nice that you spend quite some time in it on theory. However, I would like to point out a few things in this post:
1. Winning a HU does not come down to mere HU skills, it is also higly dependent on the amount of chips you will have when you come HU (duh). So this means that it is also highly dependent on factors like chip accumulation on the bubble and 3 handed (either as a CL or as a midstack vs smaller stacks).
2. While it may be a good thing to try and make a chart for every possible situation (I think most of us tried that), it can also be a dangerous thing. If you start using charts during play you will often not analyze the situation carefully enough and you will likely miss some important factors that should influence your decision. Furthermore, you will start playing like a robot, and if there is one thing that you should always avoid, even in SNG's, is to start playing like a robot.
Just my 2 cents.
1: Excellent point. I can't find any fault with it, and you're definitely right.
2: Yeah, the plan was to start with the charts, and then start adding in additional factors. So if from a certain point you were meant to push 40-55% of hands, I would label it as 40%, and when I started memorising the charts, start opening up, say, noticing I have a bigger stack than usual in this position and thus being okay with shoving my 50th percentile hand. Of course, it failed, but that was the concept. I agree, playing like a robot is a bad idea.
Played a set today, which included a fair bit of HU goodness. I'm not sure exactly how much I won in the set, but it was substantial, and it's put my BR above 200. Something that's really cool is that I'm running at 11.4% ROI, but still slightly below EV. Not sure what this means, I know I'm not that great a player, my ICM has SOOOOO many holes it'd be easier to say where it wasn't bad.
Here's my first 100 tourneys, in graph form!
Looks like a very small amount, when you see it in a graph like that. No wonder 100 tourneys isn't statistically significant. Still, in that time I've had a 13 BI swing and come back out of it. The next hundred should go by a lot quicker, now that I'm 8-tabling. If I do a graph every 100 tourneys, it should get one up every couple of weeks. I'd like to get volume in like crazy to clear my bonus, but it probably isn't gonna happen.
I'd say my ROI is being affected by finish distribution variance. Atm I have a 16.7% 1st place finish, which I'm pretty sure is unsustainable. 2nd and 3rd are at lower levels, so my total ITM% isn't ridiculous, but still.
I'm thinking of moving to the turbos. I have very little confidence about my ICM, but my shorthanded play does seem to be pretty decent, and half the players on normal don't seem to know push/fold mode, let alone ICM. Essentially, here are the things to think about:
A) Turbos, if I can do as well at them as I do in the normals, would lower my ROI, but increase my $/hour.
B) To do so, my lategame would need to still be superior to the field.
C) On the Turbos, people would be better at the lategame, due to more time to practice.
D) Because I'm not the only one aware of A) there could be more regulars at the Turbos.
It's worth considering though, a higher $/hour and a chance to clear my bonus faster. Any advice from people with experience at both normal and turbo 9-man SNG's at low stakes would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks for reading!
Played two sets of eight today. 8-tabling is hard when sets go well, I end up with a huge amount of tables that are 6-handed or less. But I'm not completely spazzing out at those points, and my EV ROI is still fine, so I'll keep 8-tabling.
Over a few sessions I've gone from 13 BI below EV to about 2.5 BI above EV, which is pretty neat. I have a HEAP of 1sts, 17.6% (A little more than 1 in 6), an ITM of 40%, and an ROI of 15.6% (13.6% EV ROI). Yeah, 100 and change SNG's isn't a good sample size. I'd be thrilled to maintain a 10% ROI for as long as I'm at these stakes though.
BR's looking pretty good, at 220 bucks now. Studying ICM, getting pretty good at BvB pushing at various stack levels, which I think has the fewest variables. Gonna move into BvB calling next.
Volume is good, getting quite a lot of games in, and it's looking like these SNG's are a lot better than cash games for me.
Thanks for reading!
A bunch happened today, so get ready for one of my epic-long posts. In fact, I'm dividing it into TWO posts, my goals for June post, and my daily journal type post.
Firstly, my goals for June. I still have a bonus in dire need of clearing. It has about 60 bucks (600 SNG's) worth on it, and I'd really like to get it cleared. So this month, I'm gonna try to put in some volume that's far greater than what I've tried before, though I've been playing quite a lot in the last few days and can handle it fine. So my first goal is to play 500 SNG's this month. (24 down so far)
My second goal is to be able to switch to the Turbos. This means I have to study my ICM, including a specific leak I've noticed that doesn't come up much on the normal speeds. When most players are short-stacked, and there are 5+ people still in the game, I have no idea what to do. I only know how to play push-fold on the bubble, and even then not very well.
Thus, I want to get better at ICM this month, especially 5-handed plus. I'm not going to set a specific amount of hours for this, I just want to be more confident at it. Confident enough to move to the turbos. If I feel that I can do that mid-month, I will do so, and maybe increase the volume requirements for the rest of the month accordingly.
Thirdly, I want to watch more videos. I watched a couple today, but all in all I've only watched five videos about SNG's. I'd like to watch more, so I'm aiming to watch 15 SNG videos this month.
Lastly, related to the first one. It's now become a lot easier to get to Gold, requiring 500 points in one month. Assuming I do 2.5 sets each day I play, that means I need to play 25 days to get that. 2.5 sets per day over 25 days happens to be exactly 500 SNG's, so getting Gold is going to be my final goal for this month.
It's a pretty ambitious month, yes, but if I fall slightly short of my goals I'm not going to beat myself up. I feel that as long as I keep my drive and passion, I will be able to achieve these goals.
So my four goals for this month:
Play 500 SNG's.
Become confident enough in my ICM to switch to Turbos.
Watch 15 SNG videos.
Reach Gold status.
Wish me luck!
Now for my daily journal post.
I played 3 sets of 8 SNG's today, and variance was kicking my ass. I didn't tilt, but was quite surprised at the end of the day to see myself going from 6 bucks over EV to 20.5 bucks below it. That's a 12 BI swing in one day. Now, I expected these swings to occur. I just didn't expect them to happen so suddenly. I'm not gonna moan or quit playing or anything, but this is an honest recount of my experiences, and my experience was that I was stunned that I could swing as much as 12 BI of EV in just 24 tournaments.
I'm still up money overall, partly thanks to the 10 bucks of bonus that I received today, though I don't know if HEM counts that. Even so, I still managed to lose about 20 bucks, and I'm back at 200 dollars again.
I watched a couple of videos today, both by pzhon. One was all about ICM, the other one was about folding wars, which also included a lot of ICM, and I had a realisation. An idea I'd heard about months ago, I suddenly realised not only that it was correct, but HOW it was correct. It happened when I saw a chart about risk aversion in SNG's, depending on the amount of players in them. It went up from 55% at 9 players to 65% at 4 players, then went down when the bubble burst. Then I realised:
"The rules of SNG's are just ways of simplifying the mathematics behind them. The reason I'm supposed to play tighter in the middle stages of the SNG's completely eluded me until now, but now I see: It's just a way to get beginners to conform to the maths. So if someone more experienced than me tells me to do something, do it, and find out how the maths behind it works."
Someday, I shall have to actually learn the maths to be good at SNG's, but for now I'll settle for the rules that make you loosely follow it.
Lastly, I had a very interesting hand today. I've posted it in the Hand Evaluation forum, but I also wanted to share it with you guys. Here it is:
No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (CO) (t1485)
Button (t1380)
SB (t1755)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1845)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1125)
MP2 (t1410)
MP3 (t1500)
Hero's M: 33.00
Preflop: Hero is CO with 2
, 2
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, Hero calls t30, 2 folds, BB checks
Flop: (t135) K
, 10, 2
(4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets t120, Hero calls t120, 2 folds
Turn: (t375) 5 (2 players)
MP1 bets t120, Hero calls t120
River: (t615) 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets t855 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: t615
Until this hand, I believed I would never fold a set at the micros. The way I see it, he was doing everything short of waving a neon sign around that said "I'M ON A FLUSH DRAW!" to show me what he had. Even a mediocre hand-reader such as myself was able to put him on a flush, and thus, when the third heart came, I folded my set, and died a little inside.
And that was my day. Hell of a lot of Poker, and Poker study. I think I'm becoming a wee bit obsessed with this game...
Thanks for reading!
HEM does consider rakeback and bonuses in a separate graph line. Just select Options > Rakeback and Bonuses and enter your bonus amounts.
Regarding the hand you posted: There must be something I'm too inexperienced to understand, but why didn't you 4bet him once you had your set and smelled him chasing a flush. You might have been out, but he might have folded. Did you have a read on him that he just doesn't fold his draws?
The goal of 500 STTs in one month is ambitious, and I'm observing with great interest to see whether it can be accomplished by anyone other than a weekend binge 22-tabler. But great show on becoming comfortable 8-tabling. I'm still stuck on 2! ♦
One other detail: I thought you posted a graph showing that you were running considerably under EV. Did that change to put you 6 BI over EV before the most recent crash?
EDITED for typo.
I'm not sure what you mean by 4-bet, since I wasn't 3-bet at any point in the hand, but I mentioned the line of re-raising him on the turn in the hand evaluation forums. Why didn't I do it? I was thinking stupidly during the hand. I thought "If I raise to, say, 360, he calls, and if the third heart comes that sucks for me" but I should have thought "82% of the time, this move inflates the amount of chips that I win. The other 18%, it inflates the amount I lose."
500 STT's can be accomplished: I have calculated it should take me about 3 hours a day worth of playing. A lot, yes, but not unachievable.
Lastly, I was 6 dollars above EV, not 6 BI, but yes, I was above EV before the recent crash.
Hi Sal,
I dont think you can ever slow play in this spot as the flop is draw heavy,reraise to $360 and shove the turn,by calling the turn you gave him a free draw and there were a lot of scare cards out there,any ace,king,queen jack,ten nine or heart could have beat you so you needed to be aggressive to get a fold.
cheers Gordy
Hey gordy: Good to see you back! I dunno about re-raising the flop, I think calling is fine there but I definitely agree I should have raised the turn rather than give him the river so cheaply. I wouldn't have folded to anything but a heart though. Sets are the nuts at the micros, I've only ever folded one once, and that was this hand.
Was a good lay down sal. Unfortunately a hard hand to protect on the turn being as if you jammed you might have gotten called. A reraise on the turn may have shut this hand down but in the micros I've seen too many completely disconnected flush cards call any bet (even without the nuts) on the river with a flush draw.
in the end it seems you saved some of your stack to get it in later with a cooler...hopefully
Short post today, to make up for the huge update(s) yesterday.
Played one set, won $ but lost $EV, which I suppose I should be feeling bad about. I was gonna play another, but then Belayd and I started talking, and I ended up giving him a bit of a coaching session focusing on short-handed play. Unfortunately, we ran into better hands and finished 5th and 3rd.
Other than that, not much has happened today. Hasn't been much of a day for Poker. Planning to get a few sets in tomorrow though.
There's another problem that's cropped up. I've now found out that tournament tickets that one buys with FTP's can't be redeemed for T$, so they have to be played instead. I was planning on buying an mFTOPS ticket and cashing it in for T$ to boost my roll a bit, but that's no longer an option. I currently have 2400 FTP, and I'm not making thousands of them per month, so I'd like to find some sort of cheap way to spend them effectively. Taking a shot at the mFTOPS at my skill level seems like burning money, tbh, but it may simply be the best option. Any ideas?
Well, that's about it for today, so here are some statistics I'm gonna start including. Until a week from now I decide they aren't necessary and cut them from the blog. It'll happen. Just you wait.
SNG's played this month: 32/500.
BR: $207.29
Running: 5.6 BI below EV.
Thanks for reading!
Originally posted by Salivanth
There's another problem that's cropped up. I've now found out that tournament tickets that one buys with FTP's can't be redeemed for T$, so they have to be played instead. I was planning on buying an mFTOPS ticket and cashing it in for T$ to boost my roll a bit, but that's no longer an option. I currently have 2400 FTP, and I'm not making thousands of them per month, so I'd like to find some sort of cheap way to spend them effectively. Taking a shot at the mFTOPS at my skill level seems like burning money, tbh, but it may simply be the best option. Any ideas?
You could buy Steps SNG tickets although I'm not sure whether or not these are good value.
Tickets at Step 3 and above can be used to buy in to normal tournaments and SnGs - it's basically like a huge satellite system. This allows the possibility of starting at Step 0 or Step 1, getting a Step 3 ticket, and using it to buy into a tournament
Sorry, brooks, but I don't see any steps tickets purchasable with FTP. How do I find them?
