[Closed] SNG Way over EV

standard i think

Well im looking at your lifetime graph and your ev line is the same as your actual line..

Originally posted by ReaZoN999
Well im looking at your lifetime graph and your ev line is the same as your actual line..

i had runs like this one

I can't post my graph but I'm over ev for 1600 games so it can be pretty standard to run good for awhile.

Just don't lose faith when it turns around and u run like death. Ask Faarcyde about his 3 months of breakeven streak. Happens to us all.

PS. if someone could link me to how to post a graph I would be very thankful. Cheers

The difference between the green line (observed ROI) and red line (luck-adjusted ROI) is supposed to have average value 0. In small samples from the same person or from different people, sometimes the green line will be far above the red line, and sometimes the reverse will be true.

I think typical differences in ROI between the red line and green line are about +- 100%/squareroot(n) after n tournaments, and it's not shocking to see a difference of about twice that. One of my students was ahead about 1% after 50k tournaments. Another was ahead 5% after 2.5k tournaments. Another was ahead 10% after about 500 tournaments. Others have been behind by similar amounts.

It is dangerous to extrapolate too much from a small sample. If you take a coin flip on the bubble and win, this does not mean coin flips on the bubble are safe for you.

If your red line is flat, you should look for leaks and missed opportunities even if your green line looks great. In fact, there is a slight correlation between your red line and green line. The red line is biased in the direction of the green line. If you get no cards or bad luck early, you can't use your skill advantage later. So, your red line tends to be lower when your green line is, and you should worry less about a flat red line if you are losing than if you are winning.

Originally posted by madison79
I can't post my graph but I'm over ev for 1600 games so it can be pretty standard to run good for awhile.

Just don't lose faith when it turns around and u run like death. Ask Faarcyde about his 3 months of breakeven streak. Happens to us all.

PS. if someone could link me to how to post a graph I would be very thankful. Cheers

You go on http://imageshack.us, you upload your image and copy paste the "forum" link in here so the image apear in your post.

Originally posted by pzhon
The difference between the green line (observed ROI) and red line (luck-adjusted ROI) is supposed to have average value 0. In small samples from the same person or from different people, sometimes the green line will be far above the red line, and sometimes the reverse will be true.

I think typical differences in ROI between the red line and green line are about +- 100%/squareroot(n) after n tournaments, and it's not shocking to see a difference of about twice that. One of my students was ahead about 1% after 50k tournaments. Another was ahead 5% after 2.5k tournaments. Another was ahead 10% after about 500 tournaments. Others have been behind by similar amounts.

It is dangerous to extrapolate too much from a small sample. If you take a coin flip on the bubble and win, this does not mean coin flips on the bubble are safe for you.

If your red line is flat, you should look for leaks and missed opportunities even if your green line looks great. In fact, there is a slight correlation between your red line and green line. The red line is biased in the direction of the green line. If you get no cards or bad luck early, you can't use your skill advantage later. So, your red line tends to be lower when your green line is, and you should worry less about a flat red line if you are losing than if you are winning.

Thanks, great answer

What kind of leaks should I look for? Bubble play? ITM play? Early play?

Here is my finish distribution:

1 - 14.6%
2 - 13.0%
3 - 14.2%
4 - 10.9%
5 - 10.9%
6 - 9.7%
7 - 14.6% (Terribad right?)
8 - 6.9%
9 - 5.3%

I might play a bit too loose when I get in the money?

Is there any usefull stats I can post?

This is the second graph I have like this, the other one was almost the same.

Im going to put in some more volume this next week and we'll see what happens.

Originally posted by ReaZoN999

Originally posted by madison79
I can't post my graph but I'm over ev for 1600 so it can be pretty standard to run good for awhile.

Just don't lose faith when it turns around and u run like death. Ask Faarcyde about his 3 months of breakeven streak. Happens to us all.

PS. if someone could link me to how to post a graph I would be very thankful. Cheers

You go on http://imageshack.us, you upload your image and copy paste the "forum" link in here so the image apear in your post.

Thanks

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Here you go
Also, I had some disconnect issues so that is why 3rd is a little higher than it should be.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Originally posted by madison79
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Here you go
Also, I had some disconnect issues so that is why 3rd is a little higher than it should be.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Thx for your post. This is giving me more ideas of what a sng graph can look like.

This is a mix for 7$ and 15$ games?

Oh, im also playing Turbos. I guess this type of SNG has a bit more variance since the blinds go up so much faster.

Originally posted by ReaZoN999
Oh, im also playing Turbos. I guess this type of SNG has a bit more variance since the blinds go up so much faster.

Yeah plus they have more regs in them than the non turbos. Nonturbos had more room to play post flop at the end, which I felt better at than most.

U are just lucky in all in spots (EV line isnt perfect, for example cant show that u invested 3/4 of your stack preflop with AA, some fish called with 22 spikes set and rest money you put behind on flop, or that u constantly pushing into monsters from SB/BTN etc...), be prepared that eventually after big sample your green line will be very close to the red line. I played more than 35k sng and it always ended like that.

For example this month on new site (still really small sample)

/

You can see that after 250 sng my graph was very similar to yours.

Originally posted by Barin22
U are just lucky in all in spots (EV line isnt perfect, for example cant show that u invested 3/4 of your stack preflop with AA, some fish called with 22 spikes set and rest money you put behind on flop, or that u constantly pushing into monsters from SB/BTN etc...), be prepared that eventually after big sample your green line will be very close to the red line. I played more than 35k sng and it always ended like that.

For example this month on new site (still really small sample)

/

You can see that after 250 sng my graph was very similar to yours.

Oh wow I see now.

Im scared

The red line is a magnet for the green one!

Red line tells you a surprisingly true story about your actual winrate.
You actually should prefer a rising red line for a rising green because then you know you are a winning playing, not just hitting positive variance. At least that is what i have found from myself and other winning players.

Heres my graph from FTP. Mostly 12's but also some 6'50 and some 22's. All 9-man turbo.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Originally posted by Ceramic
Red line tells you a surprisingly true story about your actual winrate.
You actually should prefer a rising red line for a rising green because then you know you are a winning playing, not just hitting positive variance. At least that is what i have found from myself and other winning players.

Heres my graph from FTP. Mostly 12's but also some 6'50 and some 22's. All 9-man turbo.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Nice graph man, ty for posting!

1 thing to remember is that if you get it in behind but it's still a good call your red line will drop and I think it takes into count preflop equity.

so If you have:

5bb in the SB and shove AJ which is super standard but the
Big stack BB calls with 10 10 red line might drop but you could still win the race.

I would worry more about making good decisions than your red line. imo