Why you lose? Learn by Reinforcement and crush!! - asimos Poker Blog

Hey man!

Gonna follow, good luck!

Was thinking to re-start my own blog again, maybe I'll do just that watching you crush

Originally posted by asimos
Goals:
1. stay at 50nl and be winner
2. move up at 100nl.
2. Reach 10K.
3. After 10K reach 100K.

Love your goals, both number 2s and 3 of course ♦

My thoughts on your "questions":

Originally posted by asimos
1) When we raise a paired board ip (i.e. JJ3) we shouldn't do it bc we rep nothing.
On the other hand when we get raised from unknown we fold cause we usually have nothing. Hmm. Why then not raise our air on paired boards if Villain folds a lot?... or if Villain is unknown?

Sometimes it's quite obvious that Villain is weak and/or just mashing buttons and then I try to min-re-raise like 2-2.5x - they usually tank and fold, because duh... of course they represent nothing and the Yeti theorem is unknown to them. And even if they know - they just fold air. Of course if I have a pair or A-high - I sometimes bluff catch instead of re-bluffing, but with weaker part of my range - I do re-raise.

Once they call or shove - it's a good note to have, but it also happens not often.

Originally posted by asimos2) How we should defend vs squeeze from unknown btn when we are utg or mp?

Vs unknown we should defend by folding ♦ Not the top of the range of course ♦

Originally posted by asimos3) Villain 3bets hero's utg and shows 79s. => he 3bets hero polarized. Should hero start 4bet trush and flat strong hands, AA, KK ?

I think Hero should do just that, yeah. Not the TRASH though, some equity/blockers I think are good to have... If Villain is going to keep 3betting hands like this, his 3bet stat is going to be sky-high very soon and then you can 4bet wider too. And calling too, especially if Villain is spewy and aggro postflop. We can check/call medium made hands and bluff catch.

Same goes for any position. I think. Adjusting and re-adjusting is the key. It's better if Villain is in the blinds, so we can flat more in position, etc.

Originally posted by asimos
1) Should take a note when Villain folds his bluff catchers on the river. Then we shouldn't thin value bet, but should bluff him on the river light.

Hmm? How are you going to know he folded a bluff catcher?

Very nice and ambitious goals

I'll try to answer some of those questions:

2) in these stakes just play a solid, conservative game. So 4bet/stack off QQ+/AK; 4bet/fold AQo and call the 3bet with AQs/KQs, maybe JJ-TT and fold the rest. Unless you have some read on the opponent that he might be more light. Because population read tells us that people do not bluff enough in these spots at this stakes.

3) We already know people generally 3bet polarized (specially if they are not in SB), that showdown tells us that villain probably 3bet bluffs too much (maybe only against Hero?), so 4bet bluff him more (AQo, KQo, AJo) and call 3bets a bit more wide. Don't flat QQ+/AK, it's a bad idea, unless villain folds a lot to 4bets AND is very aggro post flop. Otherwise you lose too much EV by flatting these hands.

Hi asimos,
Welcome to the blogs,

Nice intro and nice goals,
I'm in for the journey.

Kind regards,
Fran

Originally posted by asimos
1) Should take a note when Villain folds his bluff catchers on the river. Then we shouldn't thin value bet, but should bluff him on the river light.

Hmm? How are you going to know he folded a bluff catcher?

lets say for example Villain is oop pfr.

[f] cbets T53r / hero calls
[t] A Villain check - calls
[r] Q Villain check - folds

now we know Villain had probably Tx that he folded on the river => he probably folds bluff catchers

if the board had a flush draw we can assume that he folds busted draws / or bluff catchers.. so we should track Villain to make safe assumptions

low WTSD is also good indicator.. but needs large sample

Thanks for replies so far!! Really helpful. Didn't expect all my questions to be answered so fast

Hero's running hot. Hope expected downswing won't come soon!:)

updates:
Conclusions / Notes of this month (should keep that updated):

2) Should take a note when Villain doesn't cbet light. i.e Villain check ip as pfr on Axx to fold vs bet on the turn. => we shouldn't float him light oop, but bet when he checks back.

Tasks (updated):
Play solid poker

Exposing hero's weaknesses: (Here hero's punishing himself to learn how not to do things that he isn't suppose to)
Title: How to spew yourself!!

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $79.30 (158.6 bb)
BB: $22.35 (44.7 bb)
UTG: $26.80 (53.6 bb)
MP: $30 (60 bb)
Hero (CO): $63.75 (127.5 bb)
BTN: $29.30 (58.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN folds, SB calls $1, BB folds

Flop: ($3) T 9 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $4, Hero calls $3

River: ($11) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero calls $15

Results:

Rise and fall

How to not make Ahigh fold:

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $69.70 (139.4 bb)
BB: $20 (40 bb)
UTG: $32.75 (65.5 bb)
MP: $50.50 (101 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $49.75 (99.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q T
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($2.50) K J K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.50) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($7.50) J (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2

Results:

How to not turn you hand to bluff:

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $144.60 (289.2 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $43.40 (86.8 bb)
MP: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 8
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 8 A 3 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB calls $7.50

River: ($33.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $33.50 and is all-in, SB calls $33.50

Results:

How to un - hero call with AA:

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $50 (100 bb)
BB: $67.90 (135.8 bb)
UTG: $86.55 (173.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $50 (100 bb)
CO: $20.50 (41 bb)
BTN: $51.40 (102.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $5.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $10.50, SB calls $5

Flop: ($21.50) 4 5 T (2 players)
SB bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49.50) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $25.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $25.50 and is all-in

River: ($100.50) T (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

updates:
Conclusions / Notes of this month (should keep that updated):

3) probe bets top pair (turn)
4) won't raise tp to small bet (wet board)
5) over protects his tps, i.e villain bets weak Ax on Axxss xs => you can raise bluff when the flush comes on the turn

Brutal..

What's your plan for a session? Do you just sit down and play 4 hours? Do you take any breaks?

If you look at those 3 graphs ~4-6k hands, you can see that your best results are within first 2k hands, then it goes b/e or south.

Maybe you should take a break after 2k if you don't... You can also use HM2 session length analysis tool to check how profitable you are playing say 30 minute session vs 4 hours one.

The hands, my opinion (you see, I got nothing else to do, so I can freely criticize your game ♦):

QTo hand: I would raise the donk on the turn. If raising the river - I would raise bigger. He represents narrow nuts or air, and there are way more air (A-high that is) than he has Kx, I think. So raising turn and raising bit bigger - that's how I would do it.

98s hand: I don't like the shove because you're trying to bluff him off Ax basically. And as you can see - he couldn't even fold JJ ♦ His range is either Ax in WA/WB mode or some kind of a draw. You got weak showdown hand, so vs Ax (or Tx, JJ for that matter) that's a -EV bluff and vs draws - you're ahead. And there are lots of draws in his range.

I like the turn kind of a float/protection/thin value bet, but river shove was an overplay.

AA hand: In a 4bet/called pot his range doesn't contain too many 44-TT that you can afraid of, so that's most likely is a AK with flush draw or JJ+, easy stack off in my opinion. And a good note on a showdown - ???? - PROFIT (someday) ♦

Thanks to DemonRax I discovered a new tool

Seems that hero can't play for more than 40min profitable.. but sample is small. I should have in mind though to track this thing.. and see how it develops.

At the end of the day a spew happy player donated his stack..to fix my Sunday night and start fresh from tomorrow

Tasks (updated)
Mark all the hands that you didn't play solid and try to explain why.

Not solid hand of the day:

Reads/history
Villain barreled bluff on 3bet pot w Ad3d on 2hKh9c 6d 5d run out
Villain 3bets range vs hero's btn {J9(2)}
Afq: 44/42/23

Thinking process:
1. On this flop probably we should be folding. But given the wide Villain's range I thought we were ahead and called, planning to fold on most of the turns.

2. This turn gives hero a gutshot.
It is a fold or raise spot, since I wouldn't be comfortable to call a river shove
with Ahigh.

Given that Villain is capable of bluffing here I thought that a min raise could work.. and always there is a straight possibility as a back up in case he calls. Of course Villain shoves

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $53.75 (107.5 bb)
BB: $48.25 (96.5 bb)
UTG: $72.10 (144.2 bb)
MP: $52 (104 bb)
CO: $20 (40 bb)
Hero (BTN): $51 (102 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB raises to $4, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.25) K 8 8 (2 players)
BB bets $4.10, Hero calls $4.10

Turn: ($16.45) T (2 players)
BB bets $8.20, Hero raises to $16.40, BB raises to $40.15 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

If he's wide and aggro as you say, there's no reason to raise the turn. You're folding out worse hands and rarely better hands here. Basically you can call down vs the range he's going to fold here.

Originally posted by DemonRax
If he's wide and aggro as you say, there's no reason to raise the turn. You're folding out worse hands and rarely better hands here. Basically you can call down vs the range he's going to fold here.

So he isn't folding AQ, QQ, JJ here? And if call turn how play the river?

Nice

Stats so far over 20K hands:

Thoughts

• Hero's fold vs flop raise seems exploitable
• Hero's steal from CO probably should increased
• Hero's steal from SB is smaller than used to be at 25nl, but this is
  probably bc 1) people defend more 2) not enough hand history.
  However a lot of guys seem to fold vs min raise even in this limit. However
  not sure if I should change my default to x3.
• 3bet is low.. but the plan is to play solid Maybe I should start extending my 3bet range slightly though.
• probably should play some looser. Do I play tight cause I don't have enough hand history, or I just play like a chicken?
• Hero usually 4bets x2 the 3bet size + little more both ip and oop, but people seem to call a lot. Then hero cbets sth like 1/3 pot size bet and people seem to fold a lot. Is that normal?

not solid hand of the day

Villain had bet river oop after: call flop vs cbet /[t] check / check:

on K92 63r w A8o
on 2Q4 33 w 72o

That means that he bets here w Ahigh, small pp. We beat Ahigh, but loose vs 4x, 9x, or smaller pp, so I thought a raise could work. Of course Villain called (although he tanked and called 1 sec before time out :))

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25.35 (50.7 bb)
BB: $72.95 (145.9 bb)
UTG: $58.40 (116.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $55.30 (110.6 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $57.85 (115.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 3 3
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 9 5 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.25) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.25) J (2 players)
BB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $4.75

Results:

pssssssssss

not solid hand of the day

I thought villain:
1) doesn't have AK in his range
2) could have KQ
3) doesn't have many QT
4) TT probably would have fold until river
5) my small sizing on the river might induced a light raise
6) I am in top of my range

.. still wanted to fold so much that I ended up calling

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $26.50 (53 bb)
BB: $53.50 (107 bb)
Hero (UTG): $51.10 (102.2 bb)
MP: $80.10 (160.2 bb)
CO: $12.40 (24.8 bb)
BTN: $12.15 (24.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) Q J 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

River: ($17.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $17.90, Hero calls $13.40

Results:

there's a video somewhere on this site that analyses fish lines. - looking in your DB at hands where you saw the showdown and faced a raise or check raise. pretty much every time villain had the nuts.

sucks to fold there, I can't fold sets myself..

gl with your challenge

He has the AK.... he has the AK, .. he has the AK....

wwwwww tttttttttttt ffffffffffff

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $29.35 (58.7 bb)
BB: $353.30 (706.6 bb)
UTG: $13.05 (26.1 bb)
MP: $55.55 (111.1 bb)
CO: $22.85 (45.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $56.45 (112.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP calls $2.75

Flop: ($8.75) 5 K Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

Turn: ($19.75) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $13, MP calls $13

River: ($45.75) 7 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $33.95 and is all-in, MP calls $33.05 and is all-in

Results:

session finished little earlier than planned caused I noticed that lost my concentration. Have to work on this.

not solid hand of the day

Villain marked as fish. Although of semi-happy result not sure if and when I should have folded. Probably turn was a fold..

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $89.50 (179 bb)
BB: $104.20 (208.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $54.80 (109.6 bb)
MP: $94.40 (188.8 bb)
CO: $176.70 (353.4 bb)
BTN: $27.25 (54.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.75) Q 5 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP raises to $5, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($13.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $13.75, Hero calls $13.75

River: ($41.25) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $41.25, Hero calls $34.55 and is all-in

Results: