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Taking a stab at Supernova

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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Hello, PokerStrategists. This year I'll be taking my first stab ever at Supernova. My only source of income has been poker for a few years now and I've been successful at both cash games up to NL50 and SNGs up to $7 so far. I'm also up a few thousands of dollars MTT-wise, but I rarely play them because I don't like the variance.

This year I have one major goal for my poker career:
:sfishg: Get Supernova status on PokerStars.
Loading…
██▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ 20%

Right now, I'm grinding NL25 full ring Zoom.

I might also use this thread to post some hands and other random stuff whenever I feel like it.

Graphs so far:

NL25:

NL50 (I'm gonna keep to my word and still not show you guys my yellow line) :

My graphs contain no yellow lines (the EV lines) and they never will.

The reasons are:

Spoiler

1. Nothing good will ever come by looking at your yellow line. If it's below the green line, you will ask yourself why are you so unlucky. If it's above the green line, you will ask yourself when will a downswing come or think that you won money because of luck, not because of your skill.

2. The current EV calculation method is extremely inaccurate, in my opinion. If a moron calls you down with 44 until the river in a 3bet pot and hits a set on the last card versus your AA, your EV will be shown as -100 big blinds, which is far from the true value. In an extremely large sample (like a few millions of hands at least) things might even out, but that sample takes years to build and your game is constantly changing, so I really see no benefit in checking the EV line. Ever.


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231 replies
AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Wait, what? :wtf::spit:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 63.56 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
SB: 88.16 BB
Hero (BB): 101 BB
UTG: 169.84 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG+1: 103.12 BB (VPIP: 11.63, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 89)
MP: 206.48 BB (VPIP: 10.01, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 837)
MP+1: 90.4 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
MP+2: 153.4 BB (VPIP: 7.77, PFR: 6.80, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 105)
CO: 132.48 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 14.21, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 197)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: T:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.48 BB, SB calls 2.08 BB, Hero raises to 9.92 BB, fold, SB calls 7.44 BB

Flop: (22.32 BB, 2 players) A:spade: 4:diamond: Q:diamond:
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (22.32 BB, 2 players) A:club:
SB bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

River: (50.32 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
SB bets 32 BB, Hero raises to 77.08 BB and is all-in, SB calls 32.24 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows A:heart: T:diamond: (Full House, Aces full of Tens)
(Pre 67%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
SB mucks 8:club: T:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 33%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 170.8 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Well that was unexpected :thinking:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 253.96 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: 32.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 102.2 BB (VPIP: 9.85, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.17, Hands: 135)
UTG: 49.72 BB (VPIP: 7.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
UTG+1: 112.72 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP: 55.72 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
MP+2: 142.04 BB (VPIP: 13.60, PFR: 11.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.11, Hands: 669)
CO: 67.52 BB (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 14.50, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 336)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2:club: 2:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.48 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.08 BB

Flop: (12.36 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: K:spade: 2:heart:
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN raises to 16 BB, Hero raises to 31.2 BB, BTN raises to 248.48 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 63.32 BB and is all-in

Turn: (201.4 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:

River: (201.4 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:

Spoiler

Hero shows 2:club: 2:diamond: (Full House, Twos full of Threes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
BTN shows 3:diamond: 3:club: (Four of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
BTN wins 193.4 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

The reason for which I prefer full ring games over 6-max: If your only source of income is poker, you want as little variance as possible. Even though the players are tighter at full ring and there are hordes of regulars, I'd rather have a smaller edge over predictable players over having a bigger edge over unpredictable total fish.

In other words, I specialize in exploiting weaker regulars and I'd rather battle players I have a defined edge upon instead of dealing with fish every hand, wondering if that shove comes from a maniac or a calling station who just flopped the nuts.


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satishvasoya
Joined: 22.10.2010

gl sir..will be following..


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

funny fish, don't you know not to play in the shark pool? _pleased:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 124.92 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 128)
SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 229 BB (VPIP: 15.01, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.74, Hands: 965)
UTG: 109.48 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 72)
UTG+1: 98.16 BB (VPIP: 14.45, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 1.67, Hands: 173)
MP: 193.8 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (MP+1): 131.72 BB
MP+2: 164.76 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 51)
CO: 76.48 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: _, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:heart: J:club:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.4 BB, 2 players) 7:club: Q:spade: 3:spade:
Hero bets 12.2 BB, BTN calls 12.2 BB

Turn: (43.8 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

River: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets 8 BB, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 70.48 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 394.24 BB (VPIP: 18.46, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 12.24, Hands: 133)
SB: 145.16 BB (VPIP: 21.13, PFR: 8.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
BB: 99.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: 260.76 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 193.92 BB (VPIP: 19.52, PFR: 13.78, 3Bet Preflop: 6.20, Hands: 593)
MP+1: 91.16 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP+2: 99.4 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 125.2 BB (VPIP: 18.38, PFR: 13.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.77, Hands: 136)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6:heart: 6:club:

fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 2.4 BB, MP+2 calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (10.6 BB, 4 players) 6:spade: 5:diamond: K:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 8.08 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 8.08 BB, fold

Turn: (26.76 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:
Hero bets 22 BB, MP+2 raises to 88.92 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 66.92 BB

River: (204.6 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:

Spoiler

Hero shows 6:heart: 6:club: (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 53%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
MP+2 mucks K:spade: J:heart: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 47%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 196.6 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

I made a tight fold today versus a 14/12 TAG with 0.8 river AF. I think it was the right decision and that he most likely had 22/33/99 or a made flush (less likely). I think he rarely has a king there ( both combo-wise and play-wise) and he would never bluff.

Feel free to share different viewpoints.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 449.88 BB (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 112)
SB: 125.96 BB (VPIP: 15.49, PFR: 11.27, 3Bet Preflop: 1.85, Hands: 142)
BB: 68.04 BB (VPIP: 12.98, PFR: 9.16, 3Bet Preflop: 3.09, Hands: 421)
UTG: 212.16 BB (VPIP: 14.27, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.98, Hands: 981)
UTG+1: 135.68 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 43)
MP: 96.76 BB (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 13.21, 3Bet Preflop: 2.00, Hands: 107)
MP+1: 131.56 BB (VPIP: 11.55, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 3.92, Hands: 814)
Hero (MP+2): 100 BB
CO: 126.24 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.10, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 99)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:heart: A:heart:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 2:club: K:club: 3:spade:
UTG bets 4.24 BB, Hero calls 4.24 BB

Turn: (15.88 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
UTG bets 9.08 BB, Hero calls 9.08 BB

River: (34.04 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
UTG checks, Hero bets 16.24 BB, UTG raises to 195.84 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler

UTG wins 63.52 BB


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iSoOwnYou
Joined: 27.11.2014

Hi good luck with your goals this year, making a 4k bankroll from fpps also sounds very nice! Good luck :f_drink:


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Thank you and satishvasoya for the good wishes! _drink:


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Have you ever represented a monster so well that your opponent folded before you bet? :fuckyeah::yaoming:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 12.82, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
SB: 30.4 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 172.48 BB (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 112.12 BB (VPIP: 8.74, PFR: 7.10, 3Bet Preflop: 7.25, Hands: 183)
UTG+1: 185.32 BB (VPIP: 13.41, PFR: 8.54, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 84)
MP: 114.6 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (MP+1): 108.44 BB
MP+2: 87.12 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 134.32 BB (VPIP: 18.55, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 548)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: Q:spade:

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 9.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 6.6 BB

Flop: (19.8 BB, 2 players) T:club: K:heart: K:spade:
fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 18.92 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

I dodged this one after a few seconds of thought. Against the mid stack I'd have gotten it in, but the small blind call from a reg was something suspicious _confused:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 102.68 BB
SB: 103.52 BB (VPIP: 13.98, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 4.20, Hands: 332)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 125.76 BB (VPIP: 15.08, PFR: 11.81, 3Bet Preflop: 5.98, Hands: 712)
UTG+1: 125.2 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 1.75, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 58)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.57, PFR: 9.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.84, Hands: 144)
MP+1: 41.6 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 91.96 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 5.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 244)
CO: 148.4 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:spade:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11.68 BB, SB calls 11.28 BB, fold, MP+1 raises to 41.6 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 29.92 BB

Flop: (95.88 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 3:diamond: K:club:

Turn: (95.88 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

River: (95.88 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:

Spoiler

SB shows K:spade: K:heart: (Four of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%)
MP+1 shows A:diamond: A:heart: (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 91.56 BB


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NutzAreOk
Joined: 28.01.2011

Which one you think looks more stronger line here, SB coldcalling your 3bet or SB 4betting?


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Idiots - where would we be without them? :megusta:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 188.32 BB (VPIP: 24.26, PFR: 21.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 173)
SB: 137.24 BB (VPIP: 13.10, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.45, Hands: 606)
BB: 162.56 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 55.72 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
UTG+1: 298.32 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 5.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
MP: 102.76 BB (VPIP: 10.50, PFR: 6.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 181)
Hero (MP+1): 100.12 BB
MP+2: 125.6 BB (VPIP: 16.05, PFR: 12.35, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 81)
CO: 95.8 BB (VPIP: 41.94, PFR: 29.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:club: A:club:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) J:heart: A:spade: 5:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
UTG bets 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

River: (27.4 BB, 2 players) 2:club:
UTG bets 42.72 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 42.72 BB

Spoiler

UTG shows 7:diamond: K:diamond: (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 38%, Flop 5%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows J:club: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 62%, Flop 95%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 107.76 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

I think a SB reg calling my 3bet is much stronger than a 40BB stack shoving because the SB is most likely aware of the fact that the middle stack will almost never call, but shove or fold instead. It's pretty much a face-up trap set for me. He was probably hoping I was less experienced and fall into it.


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

Also,a decent regular would very rarely (if ever) coldcall a speculative hand or AK out of position versus a raise and a 3bet. With AK you make a pair one out of 3 times and you also have reverse implied odds versus 2 players, not to mention the danger of getting shoved pre-flop. Because of the raise and 3bet, you might have discounted outs for pairing your hand(because a 3bet range usually has lots of aces and some kings) and be quite behind versus a pair, so calling a shove is not a great option.


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

_evil:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 120 BB
Hero (SB): 100.4 BB
BB: 94.92 BB (VPIP: 27.40, PFR: 12.33, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 73)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.50, PFR: 8.25, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 1,077)
UTG+1: 116.44 BB (VPIP: 15.27, PFR: 11.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.39, Hands: 1,156)
MP: 56.96 BB (VPIP: 16.88, PFR: 8.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.08, Hands: 161)
MP+1: 152.68 BB (VPIP: 13.50, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 627)
MP+2: 83.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 165.88 BB (VPIP: 15.60, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 144)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: K:heart:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 13 BB, fold, UTG+1 calls 10 BB, fold

Flop: (30 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 3:heart: 7:club:
Hero bets 18.88 BB, UTG+1 calls 18.88 BB

Turn: (67.76 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
Hero bets 68.52 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 64.72 BB


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

It took him his entire 50 seconds time bank to fold his overpair, but he eventually auto-folded it(ran out of time) :yaoming::profit:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 40.24 BB (VPIP: 29.31, PFR: 24.14, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 58)
SB: 106.88 BB (VPIP: 17.00, PFR: 14.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 602)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.80, PFR: 11.20, 3Bet Preflop: 4.60, Hands: 252)
UTG: 42.76 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 162)
UTG+1: 191.68 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: _, Hands: 3)
MP: 165.84 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP+1: 138.84 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 64)
Hero (MP+2): 134.64 BB
CO: 107.16 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB

Flop: (37 BB, 3 players) T:spade: 7:club: 6:spade:
SB bets 21.2 BB, Hero calls 21.2 BB, CO calls 21.2 BB

Turn: (100.6 BB, 3 players) 3:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 101.44 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 96.08 BB


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metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

I think this JJ hand is spew really. There are way too many guys at nl25 zoom who just always cry call overpairs and in this spot honestly it wouldn't be that bad because you pretty much rep nothing.


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AlphaVillain
Joined: 09.10.2014

That is true if his range only consists of overpairs, but his range here is a bit wider and I don't want to give free cards. He could have things like a flush draw, overcards, FD+overcards, T8s+,88,99 etc. I don't think he'd check a monster(like a set or straight) on the turn with all those draws versus 2 players out of position. I only assumed he had an overpair after he took his entire time bank to think about the decision. That being said, I like my play here, but I would not have done it if I knew he had exactly an overpair in this spot.

Also, I think I can represent an overpair, a set and one of the 2 straights. The bluffs he might put me on are generally some flush draws, so I think my range looks reasonably strong, but I did this for protection value at the time of playing.


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