[Closed] Redesigning the SSS (warning! lots of math)

omg you are a genius , ive been doing a similar thing but i was using standard deviation based on information gathered from poker tracker and using vpip% from each player to calcuate a similar percentage for a raising formulae.

I guess thats why it appears im a maniac because sometimes I get called and get lucky flop when i was really just trying to steal blinds based on standard deviations .

Nice one , but I guess the cats out of the bag now . Although Im guessing you also have a degree in statistics as well right ?

woah this is some deep stuff .... sorry im nt a crazy math person. so what is ur final VPIP and PFR like? it seems like a pretty huge number. has this been working out for u?

to calculate hand ranges maybe u can use the equilator to find the hands u should be raising with based on the %....

Originally posted by noclaninator
-Each opponent reraises 0.5x% when you raise
-If you get reraised then you go broke with 0.5x% or exactly half of what you raised with. This will result in every all in you play being neutral EV since both handranges are exactly the same.

I disagree with this.

Your PFR is 20% @CO so BTN/SB/BB will 3bet you 10% of the time?
Say you isolate 30% , will they be 3betting 15% of the time? Mixing in some 16-24tableaments where they dont even care about dynamics and stuff.

The 2nd sentence is a bit marginal since you dont equilate your range/hand versus a range. It's easier but definitly you miss the small margins and adding that up within 1 million hands played

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Opening 27% in BTn is ridiculous. You should open like 50-80%.

If you open raise 20% then it is optimal (or at least close to optimal) for a villain to 3bet 10%. If someone deviates from this, it is your job as a poker player to figure out how they are deviating and adjust accordingly. If I raise button 27% and some guy decides hes going to bluff shove alot then I should be calling my entire range. I made the assumption that other players will play optimally (or at least close to it) but of course they won't.

For example suppose you are UTG with AJ. This is a fold but if there is some kind of tardfish with a vpip of 95% then AJ becomes a profitable raise from UTG. Likewise if you are on the BU and SB and BB both have fold to steal values of over 90% then you are making a mistake if you are not raising 100%.

Raise 50-80% of buttons = WHAAAAAAT? Do you know how often you are going to get shoved (or at least SHOULD get shoved) if you raise this often? I mean if they don't shove 40% against your button raise then great but if they aren't shoving alot against such a loose raise then threads such as this one become useless since I am already crushing everything I play if they don't notice obvious things such as this.

Having read what Gerv said about equilating hands against ranges this is absolutely correct. One assumption I made that is super incorrect is the assumption that you should call off your stack with 50% of your raising range. This is way too loose for sure. Another assumption that I made is opponents should reraise 50% of your range though this isn't off by much.

If you raise AQ+, TT+ (4.68%) from early position then it is correct for them to reraise AK+, QQ+ (2.57%) AK is a slight equity underdog against this range but an EV calculation shows it is a profitable semi bluff. Jacks are also a slight equity dog but not a profitable semi bluff. (On a side note you will lose about 1.5 bb every time you shove Jacks against a UTG raise which is a lot worse than I thought.) This means against UTG you should reraise more than half of his range. If you make the assumptions that I did then you reraise 2.3% which is not enough here.

If you have QQ then you have 40.2% equity and should not call against this range since you need 42.5% equity to call (not counting dead money and rake). AK suited comes even closer at 41.9%. At higher limits like $5/$10 (where the blind dead money quite exceeds the rake) this is a call but on the limits most people play on it is still a fold. My math says you should go broke with 2.3% when it is actually only profitable to go broke with about 1% (though you can call off about 1.66% without losing much). However if you raise AQ+, TT+ from early and only go broke with KK+ then you of course open yourself up to bluff raises not that many people would try it after a UTG raise. Thankfully, people will invariably reraise a UTG raiser with JJ which makes going broke with AKs and QQ profitable. Still, with the assumptions I made we are calling our stack off a bit too light.

What about button? If button raises 28% then by my calculations sb or bb should reraise 14%. This is approximately 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, A9o+, KJo+. Against this range we can call our stack off with 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ which is about 10%. This is less than half of the range. Again with my assumptions we are calling off too light.

So how often should we call off our stack against a reraise? With the UTG we should raise 4.68% and call off 1.66% (so we go broke about 35% of the time). From BU we go broke 10%/28% which AGAIN is about 35%. This suggests to me that we should go broke with 35% of our raising range from any position and NOT 50%.

I guess this means it is time to redo all the calculations. I think raising ranges from all positions will become a tad bit looser. Remember though that these calculations assume optimal play from all villains. When I say you shouldn't go broke with Jacks; I am talking about against the "perfect" opponent and not your typical fish.

If you play high-er stakes, you ´ll see that many players OR like 50-90% in btn, and 80-100% in SB. Try to figure out what should be his restealing range bvb to make you opening less hands.

Originally posted by Andresart
If you play high-er stakes, you ´ll see that many players OR like 50-90% in btn, and 80-100% in SB. Try to figure out what should be his restealing range bvb to make you opening less hands.

obv u have never played higher stakes than nl25 i guess. opening more than 40% from SB against good players is burning money intentionally

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I felt like doing math today.

On higher stakes (and I've SSS'd up to $5/$10 before) it may be profitable to raise 50% but it is not as profitable if they adapt PROPERLY (important)

Say you raise 50% from the button. I will adapt by pushing all in with 25%. Other player should adapt the same way. Assuming this I will calculate the EV of playing the button this way as opposed to play

(0.75)(0.75) = 56.25% chance of winning the blinds preflop. 43.75% of the time your raises will be shoved on. Against a 25% range you can call about 25% or half the time that you raise

0.5625(1.5) - 0.21875(3) + 0.21875(0) =
0.84375 - 0.65625 = +0.1875bb(0.5) = 0.0938bb/button played

You win about 0.09bb each time you play the button. This number may not mean a whole lot to you but let me assure you that bigger is better. Let's look at my number 28%

SB and BB will have to reraise 14% if I raise 28%. Against this range I can call 12% profitably. I will win the blinds 73.96% of the time that I raise. 14.88% of the time I will get reraised and have to fold; and 11.16% of the time we will play an all in pot. When the all in pot is played I will average 52% equity for an average win of 0.8bb.

0.7396(1.5) - 0.1488(3) + 0.1116(0.2)
1.1094 - 0.4464 + 0.02232 = 0.68532bb(0.28) = 0.1919bb/button played.

And let me assure you if you raise more than 50% that number WILL go down if your opponents adapt properly. The number that I came up with assumes that your opponents are adapting. If there are two fish in the blinds who fold everything then feel free to raise 100% until they play back at you but the 28% number that I calculated is close to optimal if your opponents are adapting.

Remember YOU CANT USE POSITION POSTFLOP in SSS. When TwiceT says in his videos you should open raise 100% of buttons he is very correct because in BSS you can call any reraise and play position postflop. In SSS you can't play position = tighten up your preflop raising ranges.

I recalculated the "optimal" open raising ranges from each position. The numbers did not become a tad bit looser but a tad tighter for each position. The difference is actually so small that it is negligible.

UTG: 7.6% (-0.1%)
UTG2: 8.6% (-0.1%)
MP1: 9.9% (-0.2%)
MP2: 11.8%(-0.1%)
MP3: 14.7%(-0.2%)
CO: 19.1%(-0.2%)
BU: 27.6%(-0.3%)
SB: Still shove 45%

If any if you still disagree with my 27.6% button raising range then please come to any game I am in and sit to my right. I have not been getting my fair share of seafood yet due to extreme overfishing on pokerstars.

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