[Closed] Has variance " memory"

There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.

I can say that i have this problem!My solution?Win one big pot!It rebuilds my confidence instantly! ♦

Originally posted by Schris7
My problem is that i loose motivation when i win or gain when i loose.

Ok, to be honest I have to say that I think this is very weird...
When I'm on a run and winning a lot I am more self confident with my game and I want to play more to keep my hot run up and keep winning.
But maybe I play a bit more cautious when I'm on a loosing streak (I know I shouldn't but that's a different topic).

On a different matter a "flip" is never exactly a flip. The pair is mostly a favourite (except against suited connectors), so in the long run you will win more with your PP when you have a "flip"...

Originally posted by Fongie
There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.

well i think i ve played a lot but still the feeling is the same

Originally posted by pinnryder

On a different matter a "flip" is never exactly a flip. The pair is mostly a favourite (except against suited connectors), so in the long run you will win more with your PP when you have a "flip"...

you re going into details and u miss the whole point i believe.

I know what you mean... After a hot session you think if I play anymore I'm 'due' for a downswing. Ideally if you KNOW your game is faultless you should ignore all results and treat it as one big session. Obviously that's not possible. Maybe when you have winning sessions you could make a habbit of studying instead of playing the next session. This way you will skip the downswings and have only upswings

Originally posted by GunFlavoured
I know what you mean... After a hot session you think if I play anymore I'm 'due' for a downswing. Ideally if you KNOW your game is faultless you should ignore all results and treat it as one big session. Obviously that's not possible. Maybe when you have winning sessions you could make a habbit of studying instead of playing the next session. This way you will skip the downswings and have only upswings

Firstly, you can not possibly "know you are playing faultless" when in fact there is no such thing.

The rest of that post is a level I am sure.

The question is how much of this current slide downward is our direct fault for faulty play
and review and find these leaks and plug them. But it is like a sinking ship with 3 holes in
the side and only 2 plugs. You plug two holes and the water comes in the third so you
take one of the plugs and move it and this dance goes on forever. This is poker and
its learning curve.

That aside I agree with the one long session but not avoiding playing so back to the main post..

I had a fantastic run for 2 weeks straight where every single day
was a winning session. And good profit every day. It lead me to try
my best to focus on the fact that it will not live forever and that I
will go through a rough time eventually and to remember these good
times when my next rough time comes.

I did not however dread playing for fear it was around the corner.

I also failed in my atempt at focusing on the good when bad came as when I moved up
and got bitch slapped and not even that badly I tilted and got pissed. I agree totally
with Fongie. Once I play enough of the new limit to see a standard pattern of rising
over time with the dips doing their natural thing I will just playon unphased.

But along with the playing on and more volume has to come in more study and self control
otherwise our play gets worse as the effects of the negative get a hold of us.

Someone on these forums said it before I forget who so sorry for no quote but you
can not play your way out of a downswing. And that is especiialy true if we take a long
term sample (lifetime) and see that over all our profit has been going up so there is
no such thing as a downswing in the firstplace.

Originally posted by Fongie
There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.

My sick run at the $1000 freeroll would strongly disagree with that ♦. I'm not talking about winning 3 coinflips in a row. I'm talking about winning AK off VS AK off VS JJ by making a flush on the river. I rivered a flush like 3 times with nonsuited cards.. it was rediculous.. Never seen anything even close like that.

Quick question: Why do you ask questions you already know the answer at?

I'm not that experienced player and i didn't play so many hands so i can tell how big upswings and downswings can be so can you tell me is this normal. I'm playing mostly heads up SnG lately and in last 4-5 days i had terrible downswing i'm constantly losing all-ins when i am 70 -80% favorite. For instance AK vs A2 or AQ vs QT or KK vs 77. I dont know exact number but in 50 cases where i am 70% favorite i lost 35 times. Its really frustrating lose so much with things like that. Is this normal is that happening to you guys as well??

I can't quite believe this thread. They're independent events. There's no memory. It's psychological.

You're a hair's breadth away from saying it's rigged.

And while I'm on the subject, how can this possibly be the 'top thread of the week'! You have lots of videos by earnest young German men saying how we should be playing the +EV line because we will make money that way in the long run. And then this!

Does variance have memory? No

Is the moon made of cheese? No

Sorry to vent, but really! Pffffff

You have a thing for earnest young German men I take it?

In all seriousness this thread can be good for newer players or people going through a rough time.

jbpatzer u could be less sarcastic and if u cant then dont bother to post .

I clearly say in the end its psycological issue and that i wanted to hear opinions of people that maybe have the same problem .

First off (and I don't mean offense) this thread is mixing apples and cherries. Math and science are one side while feelings and mental approach on another. It is a hugely demanding task to make one work for another, either way u approach it. Humans as a species have a remarkable talent to "create bridges" between gaps that are so far apart it is amazing we are even able to comprehend (a little bit) of either side of the breach.

On the one hand OP takes on variance (cause/effect/consequence/w.e. u want to call it) which in itself has so many factors that it is impossibly arrogant to say (OP said it a few posts later) that going into details does not matter. Details matter the most. I'm sure that if any of us would be more successful even by 0,1% at the start of our poker experience, we'd all have completely different bankrolls to the ones we have. Details are key and will always be key.

On the other OP tries to make sense of what he is feeling (and how to improve on that) through what kind of results he gets through using the amount of knowledge about sngs, which produces a random result. It is (at best) unhealthy to approach poker in this way mentally. Result of ur action is the most unimportant thing at poker. What Schris7 (and so many others) are doing is self-destructive. It is never possible to be certain that because u've won AKo vs. 77 (u can insert any kinds of hands for preflop here) once that u will also win it the next time. Or perhaps even ever again.

And there in lies the problem of many poker players (even me). Shaping the proper mentality is probably the test many more fail at than learning and understanding correct play in every situation. It seems this happens because of that remarkable human trait I mentioned at the start of this post. I guess a good starting guideline for how to improve ur poker approach would be to go against ur basic instincts and try to see things in a more empirical sense. Emotions have very little to no room in poker. Yet we can't ever ignore or block them out completely.

This is an immensly complex topic. Mainly because people are so different and what works for someone might not work for anyone else. If one is absolutely certain that they want to pursue a poker career, this is only one of the (very hard) problems that have to be resolved properly. People think poker is just about math and statistics. Or grinding and starting at a screen. Or having no life and spending every waking hour clicking and watching money fall into the players laps. Depending on who u are it is more/less about ur mentality as well. This thread illustrates that, and how important a solid mental approach should be, perfectly.

Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.

No it doesn't and it won't in the future

OK. Point taken. Was feeling a bit grumpy. And with regard to the 'earnest young German men' remark, I always find it a bit galling when they're so manifestly better than me at poker. I'm a 44 year old maths professor, so I see you university students far too often already! Seriously, I'm willing to learn from anyone, and appreciate all the help I've had from this site.

http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html
i really like this simulation... you can see sick runs without losing money

Originally posted by Atoks

Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.

thats basic human nature though

Originally posted by fun101rockets

Originally posted by Atoks

Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.

thats basic human nature though

Yep. That's why I wrote earlier in the post that u have to resist ur basic instincts in order to build up the proper mentality.