Monday Status Report
Hands: 256/250
Hand Review 1/1
iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 53.5 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 5.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
UTG: 18.5 BB (VPIP: 17.86, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
Hero (MP): 192.5 BB
CO: 39 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 40)
BTN: 102 BB (VPIP: 23.13, PFR: 18.80, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 419)
SB: 107.5 BB (VPIP: 73.91, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ K♥
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) Q♥ 3♣ T♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, SB calls 6 BB, fold
Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) 3♦
SB checks, Hero bets 14.5 BB, SB calls 14.5 BB
River: (50 BB, 2 players) 8♦
SB checks, Hero bets 35 BB, SB raises to 84 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 49 BB
Analysis objective:
Relavant questions for this hand:
Should I have called?
Analysis Steps:
1)Determine villain range;
2)Determine equity vs villain range; and
3)Determine if I shouldve called.
1) Determine villain range
So the villain was calling a lot, even with a low hand sample he had VPIP of 74 and a PFR of 4 but I will be conservative and use a VPIP 65% and PFR 4% range on equilab.
This gives us the following range
Spoiler
88-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o
After my flop bet (which I think was correct) and villain call I would give him any draw and any pocket pair or pair on the table, giving us the following range
Spoiler
88-22, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Qh4h, Jh4h, Th4h, 9h4h, 8h4h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, Th3h, Ah2h, Kh2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, Th2h, AQo-ATo, A3o, K8o+, K3o, Q4o+, J8o+, T7o+, 98o
After my turn bet (which I think was correct) and villain call I would give him any draw and only hands with 3's and Q´s giving us the following range
Spoiler
KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Qh4h, Jh4h, Th4h, 9h4h, 8h4h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, Th3h, Ah2h, Kh2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, Th2h, AQo-AJo, A3o, KJo+, K3o, Q4o+, J9o-J8o, 98o
After my river bet (which I think I should not have made as not a lot of worse hands call and almost none better fold!) and his re-raise I would put him in any Strong Q, 2Pair any 3 or a bluff (having no idea about his bluffing frequence iI will give him 20% of his missed draws as bluffs, no idea if it is correct or how you guys do it),
so the final range would be something like this
Spoiler
33, A3s, J3s, T3s, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Ks9s, Kc9c, Jh9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Ks8s, Kc8c, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Kh3h, Ks3s, Kc3c, Qd3d, Qh3h, Qc3c, AJo, A3o, AdQh, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, KhQd, KhQc, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, Kh3d, Kh3s, Kh3c, Ks3d, Ks3h, Ks3c, Kc3d, Kc3h, Kc3s, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs
2)Determine equity vs villain range
Against this range on the river raise my equity with KQ is 48.36%
3)Determine if I shouldve called
Pot = 50BB + "My bet" 35BB +"Villain raise" 84BB = 169BB
Amount to Call = "Villain raise" 84BB - "My bet" 35BB = 49BB
EQ = 49/(169+49) = 22.5%
Analysis conclusion:
So it seems that given the price I was getting I should call... even If i took a lot of blufs out of his range I would still be able to make a profitable call... Hmm
I was not expecting this! But I still think I shouldnt have bet the river because almost no better hands would fold and almost no worse hands would call...