Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

Great first post!

I like the attitude you have towards poker. It's not exactly realistic for a beginner to expect to make a living from playing, is it? A person is much better off concentrating on learning the game until there is some real proof that they have the skills to earn a living from it. Until then, I for one I'm happy with earning just under the min wage at the moment. Sure beats all those hours I put in playing America's Army that I never saw a dime for!

Good luck!

Awesome, awesome, awesome!!

I actually don't have the time to read the whole post right now but I will do that soon. I just wanted to say that it's really great to see another SNG player start blogging!!

Good start hope to see this one updating regularly

Nice read, I like the part where you wrote after an early upswing feeling invincible, maybe thats where I go wrong anyway wish you the best of luck!

Thanks for plaudits, guys!

Will one of you clever folks tell me how to add a link to the blog to my signature like you have?

Tim

Hi, go to my profile at the top left, then edit signature, then options at the bottom left, uncheck deactivate BBcode in this signature! then click insert URL.

Thanks p0kerQT; got it now.

So, a little Sunday update. Played 28 SnGs over last 48 hours for a total profit of $9.60 after losing a bit on Friday. Still making some pretty daft plays at times, though, like calling with medium PPs in later stages - when it's expensive - and then compounding the error by not letting go of them when I fail to hit the flop. Silly me.

On the plus side, one misconception I have mangaged to disabuse myself of, with the help of ICM/Equilator, is the notion that I should be pushing any hand with a King in it when I'm HU. I used to see a king and (regardless of the other card) just assumed it was a good hand. I was surprised to discover that hands like K,4o aren't even in the top 50% of hands! Think I've been leaking quite a bit with that misunderstanding...

Current BR: $229.94
Overall ROI: (2.9%)
ROI last 100 games: (12.8%)
Profit from SnGs: $19.20
Tournaments played: 225

More next week...

How do you cope with a 15 BI downswing?

Well, if you're Tim64, the general plan is to immediately start doubting yourself, like so:

"Maybe I'm actually a really bad, losing, player and the only reason I've been able to break even up till now is unusual good luck. I guess I'd better quit now, while I still have some BR left".

These kind of thoughts go through my head when I have to watch my hard-ground BR of $230 plummet to under $185 in a couple of days play. Hours of careful risk assessment sliding down the tube with a few hesitant folds, a few devil-may-care pushes, some dubious calls, and a slathering of bad luck on top.

Staying positive about your game is the hardest thing in poker, as far as I'm concerned. When I'm playing well and the cards are falling my way the future looks so bright, I have to wear an eyemask. But give me a few lost SnGs in a row and I'm there with the razor hovering over my wrist once more.

Ho hum. Well, I managed a good set just now: 4 trnys, placing 6th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st respectively, for a $12 profit and that's enough to make me think maybe the downswing is just variance after all - but boy do I hate to see the dips in my graph and ponder on all the wasted effort they represent...

More later...

Current BR: $198.34
Overall ROI: (-1.64%)
ROI last 100 games: (-5.4%)
Profit from SnGs: $-13.80
Tournaments played: 281

Hey Tim! So this is where you are, you've abandoned your fellow SSSers, haha. I noticed your absence from our Sample Hands Forum, you were so dedicated in posting hands there. I was myself absent for the past couple of weeks - recovering from a nearly 60BI downswing. I know what you mean by the feeling of no self-confidence, thinking yourself to be a losing player and so on. But we gotta get used to this, variance will be a close companion.

I wish you the best in your endeavor to make decent earnings from poker so you can support yourself with it. It is also my plan, except where I live everything is incomparably cheaper than England, so I won't need to be grinding the highest stakes in order to make a living here =). I hope your wife is not against "gambling"!

Hey mate,

Good to hear from you. Apologies for my quiet exit - have been meaning to drop in to SSS to say thanks for getting me started.

Sorry to hear about yr big downswing - but well done you for dealing with it so rationally.

Mrs Tim is ok with the gambling as she understands that I'm not using my own money. I used to play a lot of chess on the internet - so she's used to not seeing much of me :).

Where do you call home, incidentally? If it's really good value, I might have to move there!

Edit: just saw you are from Brazil! We were there in 2007, but did not get as far in as Brasilia unfortunately...

Hey,

Well, I've recovered every single lost BI by now and am +EV again, getting ready to move up to NL50 finally. I can tell you that at times it was difficult to handle it rationally or with a positive mind.

Yeah, I live in Brasilia, where did you go here, Rio? Brasilia is actually one of the most expensive cities in the country, but still it's very cheap compared to London (is that where you live?).

How is SnG's suiting you?

Liar Dice..............I love that game. Great fun in the pub ♦

Well, I don't know whether Full Tilt is fishier than Party (something I seriously doubt) or whether it's just chance, but since I moved over to FTP things have been looking up.

I'm still running at a modest loss at the SnGs (ROI -4.5% after 350 odd games), but the SSS is going a treat.

I deposited 200$ on FTP a week ago (the equivalent of what I had on Party near the top of my upswing - so mostly winnings), with the intention of turning that into 400$+ by clearing the first deposit bonus. It quickly became clear I couldn't generate rake fast enough playing Sngs at the rate I normally played them, so I'm now playing a combo of SnGs (2.25$) and SSS (NL 25) and it seems to be a match made in heaven.

The time spent on SNGs over the last month actually seems to have made me a better SSS player!? I'm getting better at spotting opportunities for bluff check-raising and maximising value in other ways, like raising more marginal hands in late position. So I'm running at about 5BB/100hnds for April which is a lot more than the 2BB/100 I was on at Party - before I switched to SnGs.

All very promising and my 200$ at FTP is now a shade over 265$ after only a week's play. I've promised myself I won't move up to the 5.80$ SnGs - or to NL50 for that matter - until my overall BR is over 250$. (I have to 'notionally' deduct about 50$ from the 265$ figure to reflect the fact that in order to deposit the 200$, I had to use about 50$ of my own money due to the downswing). For some reason, it's incredibly important to me to be able to say: "I didn't invest any of this money myself - it's all winnings from that original PS $50". A partial fiction, maybe, but it keeps me honest and mimimises any risk to my own money!

More soon...

Current overall BR: $226.27
Overall SnG ROI: (-4.57%)
ROI last 100 games: (-9.45%)
Profit from SnGs: $-45.95
Tournaments played: 340
Ring Games (SSS NL25): winrate 5BB/100

With great fanfare and adulation from the crowd, Tim64 finally broke through the $300 barrier. Spectators marvelled at the consumate ease with which Tim leapt over this symbolic boundry, tearing the tape as he crossed the finish line, six crisp fifties bulging in his pocket.

Well, I guess you can tell I'm feeling expansive and pleased with myself today. My overall BR stands at an earth-shattering $327.45 and clearly it's time to put a deposit on the Ferrari 308 GTS I keep seeing at my local garage. On second thoughts, maybe the Ferrari will have to wait.

The increase is part bonus clearance and part profit (a ratio of bonus:profit of about 60:40) but even the profit element is pretty satisfactory.

The $300 mark means it is time for two poker developments and a poker-treat. I've graduated to $5.50 SnGs now and, after a little bit of time getting used to the slower graduation of blinds compared to the speed tourneys on Party, I seem to be doing a bit better. I've nearly got to break-even after a long time of being in negative territory and the possibility of a positive ROI bekons enticingly once more.

Simultaneously, I've moved up to NL50 FR, which is a real achievement for me. It's a great feeling being able to shove $10 into the pot when re-raising an opponent' raise with A,A, and knowing that you have an 80% chance of making $10 with one click of a mouse.

I told myself once I reached $325, I'd get myself a copy of Barry Greenstein's Ace on the River (for when I don't have access to PS's fantastic articles ), as a treat to reward all the grind. So I've just been on Amazon and done the deed. I think it's important occasionally to reward yourself so that you can feel the grind has a purpose. The size of the treat is not the issue - a bottle of wine or a gourmet burger will work just as well.

The real queastion is what BR I will need before I can reward myself with that Ferrari?...

Thanks for reading.
Tim64

Current overall BR: $327.45
Overall SnG ROI: (-0.87%)
ROI last 100 games: (5.73%)
Profit from SnGs: $-9.90
Tournaments played: 373
Ring Games (SSS NL50): winrate 1.85BB/100

The heater I'm on just keeps on pumping out heatwaves! Despite my pocket rockets losing out to a pair of kings with the inevitable third king on the Turn, my BR has swelled over the last 24 hours. This time yesterday, I was on about $285 and now I'm up to $412(!), an increase of $127 or 44%.

I'm learning how important it is to have the cards falling your way though, and so I'm aware of two unassailable facts:

a) this huge increase is at least 50% luck; and
b) the compensating downswing could be just around the corner.

For now, though, I'm smiling

Here's an example of the kind of fishy play that's lining my pockets:

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;MP2$42.20:12/58 /25 /3.0/14 /33 /-/0 ;Hero$17.95:///////;[/tg]
0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with K♦, J♣
MP2 raises to $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.75) K♣, 6♠, 4♣ (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $3.00, MP2 calls $2.50.

Turn: ($8.75) 8♥ (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5.00, MP2 calls $5.00.

River: ($18.75) J♥ (2 players)
MP2 bets $33.20 (All-In), Hero calls $8.95 (All-In), MP2 gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $36.65

Results follow (highlight to see):
Hero shows two pairs, kings and jacks (Kd Jc)
MP2 shows a pair of sixes (6c 7c)

Hero wins with two pairs, kings and jacks (Kd Jc)

I'm guessing that when his draw didn't complete on the river he thought he'd semi-bluff at the pot with his 6's, on the offchance I had also been drawing and had nothing. But I was never laying down J's and K's - however aggressively he waves his big stack at me

More later,
Tim

Current overall BR: $412.40
Overall SnG ROI: (-0.65%)
ROI last 100 games: (6.04%)
Profit from SnGs: $-7.40
Tournaments played: 375
Ring Games (SSS NL50): winrate 27BB/100(!)
Ring Games overall (as of Feb 09): 2.2BB/100

You're building up quite the 'roll!

Very nice progress!!!

Keep up the good work. I hope your luck will last a little longer

On the average UK public holiday, most husbands are required by their wives to wash the car, mow the lawn or put up a bookshelf. My wife, unusually understanding as she is, has let me off and turned a blind eye to this morning's poker. Which is just as well, because it was a juicy session indeed. Some lovely SnG suckouts have pushed my ROI comfortably into the black at last (two $11 tourneys: placing first and second for a $50 session profit) and a good SSS profit ($36 for 550 hands) completed the morning's work. To top it off nicely, just before the end of the session, my final raked hand released another $20 of bonus.

When I first deposited at Full Tilt, I was a bit worried that I wouldn't be able to clear the $200 bonus in the 4 month time period allowed (I was on 2$ SnGs and NL25 at that stage). But now it seems I will have cleared the whole bonus in only a month or so – all being well, so rapidly have I been able to move up through the limits.

I had only a brief spell at the $5.5 SnGs and only 2,674 hands on NL 50 before I had the necessary bankroll to move up again. In my first post of this blog I admitted that I dreamed one day I'd be able to make a living playing poker. I still rate my chances of this as being no better than, say, 33%, but given that when I started I estimated them at less than 10%, it shows I'm feeling considerably more confident.

When you're getting as lucky as I have recently, it's almost little bit frightening. You keep expecting the downswing to come and hit you in the jaw. As you move up throught the limits you know that when that downswing comes, it will take you for hundreds of dollars rather than tens. I guess I just have to keep playing my best game and hope the cards keep coming good.

One hand, then, before today's specially extended barrage of stats. This is my biggest pot to date and was probably a very risky play by me:

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;Hero$30.90:///////;MP2$172.20:57/37 /16 /1.2/29 /29 /-/40 ;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♦, A♣
2 folds, MP2 raises to $3.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9.00, BB folds, MP2 calls $6.00.

Flop: ($19.00) 2♣, 5♥, 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($19.00) 7♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $22.00, Hero calls $21.90 (All-In), MP2 gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($62.80) 2♦ (1 players)

Final Pot: $62.80

Results follow (highlight to see):
Hero shows a pair of deuces (Kd Ac)
MP2 shows a pair of deuces (8s As)

Hero wins with a pair of deuces (Kd Ac)

It's hard to say exactly why I made the call. I think it was that the size of Villain's overbet make it look like he really didn't want me to call it - it didn't look like any kind of value bet. If I'd known he was on an OESD, I probably wouldn't have made the call - despite being favourite (though maybe I should have). When he flipped over A8s my first thought was 'bluffer! I have you beat'. Then I realised any 4 or 9 would give him the pot. So... I just held my breath and waited for the beautiful, wonderful, fantastic deuce on the River.

Statistics (as of Feb 09)

Current overall BR: $816.35
Overall SnG ROI: (5.85%)
ROI last 100 games: (22.37%)
Profit from SnGs: $74.10
Tournaments played: 389
Ring Games winrate (SSS NL100): 12.33BB/100
Ring Games winrate (SSS NL50): 12.38BB/100
Ring Games winrate (SSS NL25): 1.96BB/100
Ring Games winrate (SSS NL10): 1.82/100

Sure enough I came crashing to earth at around two in the morning after doing so well for so long. I have managed to wipe almost $200 off my BR in about 4 hours play.

That equates to an hourly wage of -$50 and so it occurs to me that it would be cheaper for me to pay my future employer to let me sit at a computer and spellcheck random documents for 8 hours a day! ♦

The bad news about the downswing is that it wasn't actually a downswing at all, just incredibly fishy play by your overconfident author. Basically I continued playing in the rather loose manner I've been employing of late and it eventually turned around and bit me in the ass...

The good news is that I've identified where I was being 'over optimistic' and vowed to eliminate these mistakes. All my losses were at SSS NL100 where I was stupidly underestimating my opponents after being on lower, fishier tables for so long. This afternoon, though, I played a couple of 11$ SnGs and came in third in each. Alongside the SnGs, I played two SSS NL100 tables - and did so absolutely 'by the book'. Thus, I managed to make a small dent in the loss and so cheered myself up a bit.

I'm almost through my last slug of bonus now. Once that's cleared I'll have to decide what and where to play next. Current plan is to pay myself back the money I owe myself (treats and a small BR loan) and then deposit the remaining BR (hopefully about $500) back at Party. I amassed a load of unspent points there and can nearly afford to buy a $100 bonus cash thingummy from the Points Store. I'll grind that off, and then think about shifting the whole lot to Stars to whore away at a $600 FDB.

Short Term Goals:

1. finish reading Silver NL articles [complete]
2. restart the Silver SnG articles (I'd got halfway through when I realised they assumed knowledge of post-flop play I hadn't grasped) [awaited]

Medium Term Goals:

1. Maintain recently re-acquired Gold status. [complete]
2. Start working my way through Gold articls (NL and SnG). [complete]
3. T/fer BR to Stars - via Party - and assess suitability of platform. [complete - but chose Titan instead, somewhat regretfully]
4. Earn Platinum Status [complete - though this will be a very short term status]

Long Term Goals:

1. Build a BR of $2,500 (I think this is what I'll realistically need to have any shot of making a living from the game - ignoring the small issue of insufficient skill ) [complete]
2. Choose a game with best overall earning potential given my playing style. [complete: SnGs]

Oooooh! So much to do. So little time. Why did I only discover this game now????