[Closed] Middle set multiway: big pot, ugly board

Reraise the flop. Your hand needs to be protected. There is no need for slow play because you get action already.

On the river it is difficult to fold a set in a 17 BB Pot. A flush or a straight is very likely but you need only 5,6% equity to call.

Hi!

I dont mind your flop line since you cannot protect flop with 3bet since pot is so big.Raising here would only be for value but protection comes first I would think.Also you gain more against hands that are close to drawing dead to you.If you had like AA here this would be actually be the standard and best play actually and I think 66 applies as well. I would preffer to put more action on the flop against stronger ranges to induce more action but this is surelly not the case.

Turn is a bad card but you hand is obviously too strong not to raise and river I would not fold. SB can easily have hand like 55 which is probably already enough to call but sometimes hands like KQh/AhK/K6 are possible.

In general...dont fold big hands in big pots unless you have a very certain read.Whenever you make a mistake call it will always be a very small one but when you make mistake fold its gonna be a costy one. And there is also a matter of not being exploitable which you potetially get when you start folding these spots.

clear flop raise for value. if a scarecard peels off on the turn you're much less likely to get action from worse hands. at the sametime you tend to not know where you're at when you do get action so on such a drawy board theres many reasons to fastplay a set in a multiway pot.

thats the worst turn card in the deck and as played i dont know for sure if we have a value raise since we are basically never folding our hand & getting 3-bet like this puts us in a RIO spot.

these considerations lose a little grip when we recognized that we'll often have a bundle of outs to redraw against the range of hands that are now ahead of us.

i don't think raising is that bad, but anything worse either folds or goes into call down mode... and some better hands like straights may just call down. plus, he's also likely to bet/call with a hand like Q♥K which may take this line preflop, would have put in a lot more action on the flop, & may have bet/called the turn anyways.

tldr: jam the flop

edit: a few players have mentioned pretecting our hand against the wide range of draws... against a FD we're a 75% favorite to win. against a straight we're doing just slightly better than that. go ahead & bloat the pot now while you have a strong edge. on later streets this may lead players with such draws to end up showing down because they've hit a decent 2nd pair or pair of aces or w/e... and they figure the pots to big to fold.

Hi!

I still preffer waiting till the turn to raise as protection is way more improtant than value in this big pot and waiting untill the turn,exploiting your good position is the only way to do it.

Sure you may get bad turncards to come but that will happen anyway no matter wheter you raised flop or not.In that case you are gonna be glad you didnt put more money in the pot on the flop.

The problem with waiting until the turn is that there is almost no draw which will fold on the turn if it can call a flop reraise. If a heart falls, a straight draw may fold but then 1 card flush draws may call that could have folded the flop. If Hero reraises the flop, Button will get 7:1 odds. On the turn BB gets only 5:1 odds which is worse but still enough for any good draw. Gutshots don't get the odds at the flop on a reraise but they do get the odds if hero only calls. This means it is better to protect the flop as Button may see one card less with hands that have outs.

As for the argument of waiting for a safe card on the turn there are not many cards Hero shouldn't raise. The 4♥ is one of the worst cards along with 9♥ - 7♥. Anything else Hero definitely should raise for protection. Even on the horror cards an argument can be made for raising as any such card allows for even more draws and it is not clear that Hero is behind. If Hero raises any card on the turn there is no card Hero could use to cut losses. So there is not much to gain from waiting until the turn but hero loses value/protection on the flop.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/fixed-limit/44/1/

Last example in this golden article about protection is very similar to the case we are in. In our case it is actually even easier since whichever card comes on the turn our equity will be higher than in KK case since we have decent redraw outs.

Yes, I know this example. There are subtle differences though which favor a reraise on the flop in my opinion.

The set is a much stronger hand than the overpair in the strategy article. This means, there are fewer draws to protect against. 2-pair draws are not dangerous to the set while they are to a overpair. As a consequence, protection is more important to the overpair than the set. If the 2-pair draw call a reraise on the flop, excellent. It has to call on the turn also because of the odds while drawing dead. The overpair wants those draws to fold, the set wants them to call.

With the set there are some draws against which it has to protect which the overpair in the article has not. These are the backoor flush draws. The overpair contains a very high flush card so it is almost immune against this threat. Heros set doesn't contain a flush card and even if it was, it wouldn't be high enough. The set has to protect against the backdoor draws, which may feel to call correctly for 13:1 odds (perhaps with an overcard) when it has to fold against a reraise.

In the article hand, a gutshot does get better odds on the flop than in heros hand. So a gutshot in the article is more inclined to call the protection reraise than in this hand (7,75:1 vs 7:1). In this hand hero has a better chance to protect his hand with a reraise because it gives worse odds to the opponents than the hand in the article. There are also a lot more gutshots possible in the article hand.

So the differences are:

The set has to protect against fewer draws which favors value play. In the overpair hand there is probably no draw which a reraise on the flop gets to fold while in the set hand there are.

the reason why a set is so much stronger is because even though there are still basically the same number of turn cards which can give our opponents better hands, we have a huge number of outs to a better hand.

our implied odds are also better if we jam the flop since continuing to jam the turn if a board pairing draw completing card peels off is very good for us & will tend to disguise the strength of our hand.

with an overpair we have no such hopeful situations. sometimes we'll have a BDFD, but otherwise our chances of having 10 outs when a draw completing card comes off on teh turn are often slim & usually none.

with such an overpair on such a coordinated board it is occasionally permissible to delay action till the turn if raising the flop will bloat the pot too large to fold, if our read on our opponents is very weak (unknowns), and if our position relative to our opponents may lead us to be trapped for extra bets on other streets (severe rio issues). in that situation i believe we are quite justified in taking a call flop, raise turn line.

in otherwords, jam the flop ainec.

edit: we make a full boat like 1/3rd of the time. thats pretty often. our draw to a hand better than any straight or flush means we should raise in a multiway pot even if our set could not possibly win at showdown. except that against a flush or straight draw we're favored to win with our set about 66% of the time.... best hand, virtually the best draw. so just keep raising till u cant raise anymore.