[Closed] $6.50 FML spot

I would call....
you are getting great odds and can also go for first after winning here....but if you fold you cant get better than second

i guess you cannot fold here. the pot odds are too great. click and pray.

have to call ATC here. odds are too good and we will be AI next hand if we fold while the other SS can safely fold on the BTN.

not a nice spot but no more options

I think its much closer than 'have to call due to good odds'

If I fold here, next hand I have 50/50 chance of winning my all-in. If I win that, I'm pretty much guaranteed 2nd, and the other guy 3rd, so the equity of folding is around 25%.

It's not clear that calling is going to be that much better- pretty sure it depends on BU's range. If he shoves 50%, I have 30% equity vs that range with 92o.

So my equity is approx 0.7*20+0.3*((0.7*30)+(0.3*50)) = 24.8

Thats 70% chance of coming 3rd, and in the 30% when I win, lets say on avearge I win 30% of HU matches

Basically if I am doing the calculations right it should be ridiculously close. Not sure what BU is shoving here, had him marked as a multitabler and hasn't done anything stupid yet. The main problem is that 92o is so bad, with some average hand it would be a clear call.

Fold: 425 chips, 0.2784, SD: $5.39
Win: 3850 chips, 0.3533
Lose: 0 chips, 0.2
Tie: 1925 chips, 0.3208

Equity needed: 51.13%
Chip odds: 11.04%
Risk premium: 40.09%
Chips gained by marginal call: 1543.43.
Ties count as 78.81% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $9.2.

The risk premium calculated here doesn't make sense. It doesn't corrrelate with the tie factors

Tie Factors:
------ 11110 765 1625
11110 ------ 50.8 50.1
765 75.6 ------ 50.4
1625 78.8 50.4 ------

maybe pzhon can elaborate

the math in these types of hands is quite complex. If you think about it logically, you are going to have to gamble with ATC before your other SS opponent is all-in.

Either you gamble now, for a chance to win a 4k pot.

Or you fold and you will only win a 1.7k pot

You can not fold and get 2nd, you will have to either win this hand or win the next one to stay alive because you are auto-all-in before your opponent.

Playing for a 4k pot rather than a 1.7k pot will obviously give you more equity.

Now the hard part is calculating the probability of getting a hand with more equity against the BS range when you are in the SB and whether that outweighs the advantage of winning a 4k pot vs a 1.7k pot.

I am not the best person on these forums to help with such hands (pzhon is the expert), But I find thinking about these kinds of problems logically tends to lean towards the correct answer.

Also, with a 4k stack if you win now, you will have FE for HU. which is another huge future game aspect to consider.

Hopefully that made sense... sometimes answers arent clear in situations like this.

The biggest factor that sways me to getting it in now, is the size of the pot we can win (giving us significant FE). We have to gamble, so taking the better risk:reward seems logical to me.

Its a tough spot... we would love to be the BTN in this situation, then all our decisions are really easy.... but it doesnt always work out like that.

waw this really is a FML spot allright ♠_o:

In some hands, the ICM is not going to estimate your equity accurately (and then ICM Explorer will not help much directly). The ICM doesn't see position relative to the blinds, but that position is important here, and it means that if you fold, you will be in much worse shape than the ICM estimates. That means you are not as risk-averse as ICM Explorer says. ICM Explorer assumes that if you fold and outchip the short stack 350:90, you are a big favorite to make the top two instead of closer to even since you would post the small blind all-in.

If you fold and then win in the small blind, the short stack could still survive two showdowns while you post the big blind all-in. It's not easy to see through that, but winning next hand might still let you bust out 15% of the time. Folding and then winning gives you a little chance to place first, but let's say 6%, for about 6%-79%-15% in case you win, or about 3%-40%-57% from folding, total 24.9% of the prize pool.

If you call and win, you aren't guaranteed to make the top two, but you have better chances, although you may have to sacrifice some chances to win. I would eyeball it as that calling and winning is worth about 27%-66-7%. With 30% wins, that makes calling worth 8%-20%-72%, total 24.4% of the prize pool. So, from this calculation, the decision looks like a close fold.

Also, with a 4k stack if you win now, you will have FE for HU. which is another huge future game aspect to consider.

I would call that negligible rather than huge. The extra chips give you a greater chance to win, which is important, but how you might get to play is unimportant. Once you get heads-up, unless you have a read that you have a large skill advantage in that phase of the game, you should assume that your chance to win is in proportion with your stack. If you start with 25% of the chips, you should assume that you win about 25% of the time.

Also, with a 4k stack if you win now, you will have FE for HU. which is another huge future game aspect to consider.

I would call that negligible rather than huge. The extra chips give you a greater chance to win, which is important, but how you might get to play is unimportant. Once you get heads-up, unless you have a read that you have a large skill advantage in that phase of the game, you should assume that your chance to win is in proportion with your stack. If you start with 25% of the chips, you should assume that you win about 25% of the time.

I was assuming an unknown opponent on the 6s will not know how to call when HU for 5BB effective stacks. Therefore we have a skill advantage by shoving atc every hand (exploiting an unknown's tightness). However if we do not have FE HU, we do not have this extra edge.

Suppose your opponent would misplay at an effective depth of 5 or more bb, but you get heads-up with 3 bb. Play normally, and you will double up to 6 bb about half of the time, and then you get the benefit of his misplays.

Similarly, if you have lost folding equity earlier in a tournament, it is not lost permanently. You might regain it by doubling up. If you have a skill advantage with a 5+ BB stack, this should be reflected in your equity with a smaller stack, too, even if you think you can't outplay your opponents much with a small stack.