Swayne's Degree

    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Hi, colleagues in FL. recently I got a book called Swayne's Advanced Degree in Holdem. What's good it's almost all supposed to be about FL. What's no good it's pretending to be really advanced in math areas. Same as in real degree - you'd probably won't need 90-95% of your knowledge to be a good guy :)
      Nevertheless there's a lot of info about probabilities, and I like to share some of them with you.
      :diamond: You playing in 10handed table, and gets an Ax. What is the probability for at least one other guy having A in his hole? Answer later.
      :diamond: If all 10 players (presumably loose) go to see the flop, after it most of them will have something for a call (at least A or K high, or backdoor)
      :diamond: When all 5 community cards are on the board there is:
      • 75% chance that straight is possible
      • 49% it has at least a pair for full house or even quads
      • 37% contains possibility of flush

      :diamond: As we know AKo is an underdog to any pair in heads-up. Based on this, when you open with it from UTG (10 handed) theoretically you're an underdog against all remaining players (though I still hope you'll muck your 33 after :) ). Same is with AQo in UTG+1.
      :diamond: With A2o on BU, and everybody folds to you, there's a 33% possibility you're behind blinds. In CO with A2o you're an underdog.
      :diamond: If you get suited cards on 10 handed table there's 36% possibility somebody else have 2 cards of the same suit :f_eek:
      And the answer is: 75% probability there is another ace on the table before flop. In 6-handed? Still 50% :f_eek:
      Good luck at the tables!
  • 5 replies
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Just if you read my first post, I don't advice you to read this book. Strange that Negreanu endorses this one, probably he didn't open it at all or was low on bankroll at the time. Among many dubious statements, I only mention one:

      Most players check and call when on a draw. If you are on a draw, you should aggressively build the pot preflop and on the flop, especially with many callers. ( bolded by author)

      At first I thought maybe it's an error. No author repeated it same way at the end of the chapter. Look at this major advice again!
      1. If you are on a draw, you should aggressively build the pot preflop - that's just funny. If author doesn't know, every hand before flop is on the draw (if you ever may speak about draws preflop :) ). I.e. 72o preflop is in many draws including 2 straight flushes draws, that in case of 7 may be even nuts straight flush draw! Should I aggressively build the pot with it?
      2. Draws are different. I remember one guy donking and re-raising me both flop and turn with gutshot. Probably he got an author advice (though the guy got his out and beat my top 2-pair (AQ btw). That's how PokerStars supports aggressive style :) )
      3. Also it depends of number of opponents in hand and betting history. If you play against one opponent, you may correctly aggressively play your good (8-9 outs) draw only as CBet or having additional foldequity.
      4. Finally situations are different. If you see passive players becoming aggressive, and/or drawing on lower cards for flush or straight, or paired boards, your draw may have much less outs or be effectively dead. Remember - If you get suited cards on 10 handed table there's 36% possibility somebody else have 2 cards of the same suit?

      Believe me, it's much better to read PokerStrategy articles, and it's free :f_cool:
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      Hi!

      hmmmm... maybe what he meant is actually correct in a way. IF by preflop he meant hands that are good multiway drawing hands(like suited connectors/pockets) then its fine to play for a big multiway pot since your implied odds are gonna be soo much better. But in general that preflop part is funny indeed:)

      About the flop play it is true. If you have good draws on the flop(FDs,OESDs) then you can play them for value in mutlway pots.(FD vs 2+ oponents and OESD 3+ oponents)
    • cjheigl
      cjheigl
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 09.04.2006 Posts: 24,496
      I think the idea is this: when you have a good multiway hand like a suited connector or a pocket your equity in a pot with many players is very near average equity or slightly higher. You also have a good playability because you have to hit the flop. Basically you almost can't get into trouble spots where you don't know what to do. So it doesn't cost you much to jam the pot, but the big pot binds the opponents to the pot when you hit your monster, improving your implied odds.

      Examples:

      22 vs a mid to early raiser and 4 callers: 19,3% equity = almost average


      Board:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    19.35%  19.29%   0.06% { 22 }
      UTG+1  23.78%  22.59%   1.19% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
      UTG+2  18.88%  17.74%   1.14% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP1    18.97%  17.83%   1.14% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP2    19.01%  17.88%   1.13% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


      87s vs the same opponents: 20% equity = average


      Board:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    20.07%  19.86%   0.21% { 87s }
      UTG+1  24.26%  23.00%   1.25% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
      UTG+2  18.56%  17.38%   1.17% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP1    18.54%  17.36%   1.18% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP2    18.58%  17.40%   1.18% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      How may I not agree that there are many situations, that you really should play your draw aggressively (though often you play 2 flush draws aggressively and lose a lot of money, and then mathematically correctly collect your flush in battle with one timid guy, and get 1BB for your effort :) )
      If author would say: If you are on a strong draw with positive EV, you should aggressively build the pot on the flop, especially with many callers, there will be no teasing. OK, I give another example of author's approach, now in test.
      As I told you, author put an awful lot of math, and he wants you to remember everything by heart, so first question of respective test 3 is formulated as following:

      1. You are playing limit at a 6-handed Aggressive/
      Loose table and seated on the button. Which of
      the following hands are mathematically correct to
      play?
      o A. KQ
      o B. 77
      o C. A7s
      o D. QJs
      o E. None are playable

      Guess the proper answer? Now look at this question from real (not math) perspective.
      1. If you're a beginner, what are you doing at '6-handed Aggressive/
      Loose table'? Moreover for beginners he had different advice :) If not, does mathematical correctness bother you that much?
      2. From question there's no difference, how hand is really played before you. OK, if you first to act, there's really more math to start or not, but even in this case you may deviate. But on the Button? Even if game is LA, and especially if it's LA, hand may go completely different ways, and this should definitely affect your decision (not even talking about previous table dynamics).
      3. To play is to call or raise? I don't know.

      Did you guess the proper answer? It's D. And fold your other hands.
      If you agree with the author, welcome to Swayne's Advanced degree in Holdem!
    • cjheigl
      cjheigl
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 09.04.2006 Posts: 24,496
      Well the answer to the hands question really depends on how much action was before, how many players are in the pot already, and from which position the action comes from. Against a CO raiser with no callers I would reraise every single hand of this list. Facing a 3-bet or a cap I would probably fold all of them. There is just not enough information to answer this in general.

      If you want a good book about mathematics in poker, try The Mathematics of Poker. Be warned though: it is no easy lecture.