[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max Rush, Monster stacks, Preflop war

    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Very simple but very interesting spot here IMHO. The opponent is really good reg, I see him almost every time I sit down to Rush tables. His stats: 19/17/2.7, 3bet 6.2, 4bet 4, during ~1300 hands.

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Button ($10.70)
      Hero (SB) ($44.27)
      BB ($5.17)
      UTG ($23.48)
      MP ($10.77)
      CO ($9.45)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
      UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.70, 1 fold, UTG raises to $4.90, 1 fold, Hero ?

      I have basically 4 options here:
      a) standard raise 2,5-3 times;
      b) minraise;
      c) shove;
      d) flat call.
      Which option would you prefer and why?
  • 19 replies
    • Stilleris
      Stilleris
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2008 Posts: 6
      first of all he is raising from UTG, that means very strong hand I think like QQ+ and maybe AKs, and when you raise again like mentioned in a) option, from villain side it looks, that you don't respect his UTG raise, whick means that you have very very strong hand :) but despite that 2,5-3 raise I think is the best option, villain showed too much strenght to stop the action..
    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      Bliausmas: since he is good reg I would prefer to be deceptive here - Your image is very important here - if You are 16/14 then flat call, if You are like 25/20 shove. Versus "normal" opp its easy miniraise for me.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Bliausmas,

      We are near 240BB deep therefore I even find him sometimes folding him here QQ type of hands and that's why I'd really like to just flat his 4bet and play tricky postflop like Check/Raise or something similar. He is mostly giving us a lot more value with such move than if we ship it, he will only Call our shove with QQ+ or something similar, maybe even KK+. Also we keep hands like AJ, AQ, AK or something similar in the pot. :) Which could hit their TP.

      Best regards.
    • h0m1e
      h0m1e
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2010 Posts: 223
      IMO, if he 4bets a lot, then an option is to call and let him donk his 2 stacks to you
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Hmm, interesting opinions I must say :) I actually did the worst possible (except folding of course) action here - raised to ~12$, which obviously showed tremendous strength and led him to fold. Interesting thing is that just before folding, he claimed that he's going to fold KK here. I don't know if it's true but to be honest I don't believe that :) My guess would be QQ.

      About my image - I am pretty sure that this guy uses tracking software and has also a pretty much info about me. Yep, he should see me kinda like 25/20 player with a pretty big 3bet range (7-8).

      Why I didn't flat call here? Because I thought that there are too many flops that I wouldn't like to see. I think the opponent's range is pretty narrow here, standard stackoff range: {QQ+, AK}. And I actually have some doubt about adding AK to his range here, not to mention AJ-AQ. Also, he might be bluffing here with some PP, SC or even AJ-AQ (which would be very strange).
      I mean, the flop comes KJ8 or QJ7 and now what? These types of flop hits the opponent's 4bet range very well, and I would then probably do a mistake shoving with my overpair against his set. So basically I would need to hope for a numbers-only flop in order to stack him off nicely. With a condition that he's not bluffing of course..
      Also I always remember what mr. Harrington had said: "big hand - big pot, small hand - small pot". I find it pretty crazy to go broke being 240BB deep with only one pair. I mean preflop it is fine, but on the flop - tough question :)

      But to be honest I must say that I don't have too much experience in this type of situations. I'll keep that flat calling idea in my mind for the future, thanks :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Interesting thing is that just before folding, he claimed that he's going to fold KK here. I don't know if it's true but to be honest I don't believe that smile My guess would be QQ.

      That's exactly the case, why not to fold KK here? From a reg? I wouldn't even be surprised, we are 240BB deep. He ain't that loose for 6max to easily go broke with them.

      Why I didn't flat call here? Because I thought that there are too many flops that I wouldn't like to see.

      What do you mean? You didn't want to see too many flops? There aren't many flops what would scare you. And we are shipping anyway on most flops, we are just giving him room to CBet and go broke with a lot worse.

      I mean, the flop comes KJ8 or QJ7 and now what?

      So, what with such flops? I'd still go broke, they could easily have hands like AK, AQ or what so ever. Just ship it! We could also hit AK2 flop where he does have AK.

      Also I always remember what mr. Harrington had said: "big hand - big pot, small hand - small pot".

      Most often I'd say that postflop, not preflop. :) But of course it also goes for perflop play. But usually you aren't getting your money in preflop that easily if the opponents don't have a good hand, nowdays even harder since people have a lot to learn from net and play tighter.

      I find it pretty crazy to go broke being 240BB deep with only one pair. I mean preflop it is fine, but on the flop - tough question

      What do you mean by tough? There aren't flops that we would be that scared of much, only monotone ones, which 1card FD we don't have. But even there I'd go broke. It's even tougher for them to go broke with hands like JJ, QQ, KK preflop against you being that deep.
    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Interesting thing is that just before folding, he claimed that he's going to fold KK here.
      If this is true and his 4bet is close to 4% then we have nice spot for 5-bet bluffs :-) (only deep)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by YourDoom
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Interesting thing is that just before folding, he claimed that he's going to fold KK here.
      If this is true and his 4bet is close to 4% then we have nice spot for 5-bet bluffs :-) (only deep)
      I would never advice to bluff in such spots being so deep. Way too dangerous and risky.
    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      6.70 is alredy in pot, lets say bluff will cost us 10

      if we put him on (QQ+, Ako, AKs, 94o) - 3.47% while 94o substitutes bluffs.

      if his call/shove range is just AA (0.45%) it will work ~87% of imes and it is ~+4.5$ EV
      if his call/shove range is KK+ (0.90% it will work ~74% of times and it is ~+2.35$EV

      calculation is conservative since we put him on 3.47% range, of course we cant 5-bet bluff many hands, but polarizing AA:"rags" 1:1 seems fine to me. Calculation also does not include increased chance that we get called/shoved with AA in hand, plus he will also 4-bet us less in future.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by YourDoom
      6.70 is alredy in pot, lets say bluff will cost us 10

      if we put him on (QQ+, Ako, AKs, 94o) - 3.47% while 94o substitutes bluffs.

      if his call/shove range is just AA (0.45%) it will work ~87% of imes and it is ~+4.5$ EV
      if his call/shove range is KK+ (0.90% it will work ~74% of times and it is ~+2.35$EV

      calculation is conservative since we put him on 3.47% range, of course we cant 5-bet bluff many hands, but polarizing AA:"rags" 1:1 seems fine to me. Calculation also does not include increased chance that we get called/shoved with AA in hand, plus he will also 4-bet us less in future.
      First of all, we are playing against UTG(stats=nit). He wont have a bluff here ever, he often does 4bet against us with a made hand.

      Therefore range (QQ+, AK), since he will often just Call with hands like JJ. Which is 2,56% and if he Calls us with 0.90% (KK+) that also means we are getting +EV but that doesn't mean that we are always going to do that. Since we will never know where we stand against him and how loose he is going to Call us or fold. One day he might fold the QQ, other day he might find to go broke against us since we have been 3betting him a lot. For example QQ+ it's totally -EV. If you want the calculations from my side then write me in private and I will send them but in this post I'd rather prefer to avoid them, since we would like to keep the basics in NL10.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Ehh, what's the difference what's opponents 4bet %, if we want to bluff 5bet him being very deep, assuming he will only go broke with AA? The only difference I see is that if his 4bet range is 3%, he will always fold AK's and QQ's, and if his 4bet range is 6%, he will also fold some 99's and 76's. Am I wrong?
      By the way I don't like 5bet bluffing idea in NL10 at all.

      Veriz - so basically your suggestion is to flat call here with an intention to shove any flop? In other words - you better take the risk of making nasty mistake on the flop going broke with one pair against better hand, but having chance to extract more value; rather than ending it preflop with a bigger chance of opponent folding his monster?

      And about Harrington's rule - yep, that's what I mean. I think going broke preflop with one pair is OK, but on the flop being 240BB deep - it's a little bit too crazy for me :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Ehh, what's the difference what's opponents 4bet %, if we want to bluff 5bet him being very deep, assuming he will only go broke with AA? The only difference I see is that if his 4bet range is 3%, he will always fold AK's and QQ's, and if his 4bet range is 6%, he will also fold some 99's and 76's. Am I wrong? By the way I don't like 5bet bluffing idea in NL10 at all.

      What do you mean? There is a lot difference what's his 4bet, against an maniac on higher limits we easily can bluff but not against nit. But just avoid such moves on micro stakes, less variance, more money. :) Also with 4betting % we can calculate either it's profitable or not. It's a lot to do with it.

      Veriz - so basically your suggestion is to flat call here with an intention to shove any flop? In other words - you better take the risk of making nasty mistake on the flop going broke with one pair against better hand, but having chance to extract more value; rather than ending it preflop with a bigger chance of opponent folding his monster?

      Which mistakes do you want to make? The biggest mistake you could do here is just shoving being so deep, he would just fold hands like QQ. But otherwise if we just Call he would easily go broke with them with OP on flop. And his range is way too small what would but risk against us, we would win a lot money in long run with that and I never see this move as -EV or losing money.

      And about Harrington's rule - yep, that's what I mean. I think going broke preflop with one pair is OK, but on the flop being 240BB deep - it's a little bit too crazy for me :)

      And you want to say that you are going to fold on flop against him? :f_biggrin: Trapping is the best play here against such opponents. +++++EV +++++PROFIT.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Also few adds:

      Think of the cases for example he has (AK, QQ+) 4bet range:

      AK in 4bet, we Shove -> he folds, lost a lot value.
      AK in 4bet, we Call -> he might still CBet, we earn money, he might hit, we earn again money. And he wont really hit that often to make our Call mistake.

      AK conclusion -> we earn a lot more money if we just Call and let him hit.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 91,844% 91,193% 1,301% 7,506% AA
      Player 2: 8,156% 7,506% 1,301% 91,193% AKs, AKo

      I would never be scared to Call with such equity against him. If he hits, then lucky him.

      QQ in 4bet, we Shove -> he folds, lost a lot value.
      QQ in 4bet, we Call -> he easily go broke with that hand postflop, we get a lot value from him. And also he wont hit that often against us.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 81,547% 81,330% 0,434% 18,236% AA
      Player 2: 18,453% 18,236% 0,434% 81,330% QQ

      Either I wouldn't be scared of such Call against QQ, he wouldn't hit that often.

      KK in 4bet, we Shove -> he might Call maybe even fold, lost a lot value.
      KK in 4bet, we Call -> he easily go broke with that hand postflop, we get a lot value from him. And also he wont hit that often against us.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 81,946% 81,715% 0,463% 17,823% AA
      Player 2: 18,054% 17,823% 0,463% 81,715% KK

      Read about QQ.

      Conclusion? I think I don't have to write it even, and pretty sure you see the difference. You lost a lot value.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      OK, I give up now :) Probably you're right, I chose the option with less risk and less EV. I just wouldn't know how to deal with the situation when K or Q shows on the flop and the opponent shows a lot of strength.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      OK, I give up now :) Probably you're right, I chose the option with less risk and less EV. I just wouldn't know how to deal with the situation when K or Q shows on the flop and the opponent shows a lot of strength.
      So? Let him, he could easily try to CBet there with hands like AQ or AK, doesn't have to be always QQ or KK (and this will happen rarely). You might be kinda money scared or something like that. :)
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      I don't argue with that, I really feel a bit uncomfortable playing very deep stacks and knowing that I "have" to stackoff with one pair. Well, I think confidence will come with experience here, nothing new.
      P.S. You really think he could 4bet like this with AQ? :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      I don't argue with that, I really feel a bit uncomfortable playing very deep stacks and knowing that I "have" to stackoff with one pair. Well, I think confidence will come with experience here, nothing new.
      P.S. You really think he could 4bet like this with AQ? :)
      I just said about some other range from some looser guy, this guy doesn't 4bet there with AQ, never, way too tight for it but AK could be in his range and often that's also not the case.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      And by the way, stacking of preflop is a lot other thing than stacking on flop. :) On flop you could easily make mistakes but not preflop with AA. :f_biggrin:
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Well yes, that's what I said first. That was my way to avoid costly mistake on the flop. I agree I should've been more greedy here though. I'll definitely keep that in mind facing similar situation next time :) Cheers!