No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) (t5480)
BB (t1200)
UTG (t2150)
Button (t4670)
Hero's M: 24.36
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9
, A
1 fold, Button bets t450, Hero ??
Total pot: t375
reads are villain is reg-ish, with proper understanding of the game from what I saw thus-far. I assumed that he had a wide steal-range so that re-steal + the fact there's a frikin shortie on the table and me having him covered would make him really lean towards a fold.
risk:reward isnt great because you are both so deep. his range is tighter than usual because hes obviously committing himself against the BB.
yes you have FE, but risking 4.6k to win 675 isnt good at all, its just an overshove and many bad regs especially on these low stakes will not be good enough to lay down hands like TT or AQ/AK in this spot.
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
risk:reward isnt great because you are both so deep. his range is tighter than usual because hes obviously committing himself against the BB.yes you have FE, but risking 4.6k to win 675 isnt good at all, its just an overshove and many bad regs especially on these low stakes will not be good enough to lay down hands like TT or AQ/AK in this spot.
why should "bad reg" lay down TT AQ/AK if he knows that hero is restealing light here?
its not like hero standard play will be to shove QQ+,AK on that blind level with those stack sizes, which makes hands like TT/AK even AQ clearly ahead vs Hero resteal shoving range
btw I dont think u need to shove there 3 betting to ~1250 is fine for resteal there
Originally posted by TheRebuz
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
risk:reward isnt great because you are both so deep. his range is tighter than usual because hes obviously committing himself against the BB.yes you have FE, but risking 4.6k to win 675 isnt good at all, its just an overshove and many bad regs especially on these low stakes will not be good enough to lay down hands like TT or AQ/AK in this spot.
why should "bad reg" lay down TT AQ/AK if he knows that hero is restealing light here?
its not like hero standard play will be to shove QQ+,AK on that blind level with those stack sizes, which makes hands like TT/AK even AQ clearly ahead vs Hero resteal shoving rangebtw I dont think u need to shove there 3 betting to ~1250 is fine for resteal there
It's not just about being ahead in SNGs...
A program like ICM Explorer will tell you how much equity BU needs vs Hero's range in this spot, but I guess AQ will be a fold even vs ATC
Originally posted by goldchess
Originally posted by TheRebuz
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
risk:reward isnt great because you are both so deep. his range is tighter than usual because hes obviously committing himself against the BB.yes you have FE, but risking 4.6k to win 675 isnt good at all, its just an overshove and many bad regs especially on these low stakes will not be good enough to lay down hands like TT or AQ/AK in this spot.
why should "bad reg" lay down TT AQ/AK if he knows that hero is restealing light here?
its not like hero standard play will be to shove QQ+,AK on that blind level with those stack sizes, which makes hands like TT/AK even AQ clearly ahead vs Hero resteal shoving rangebtw I dont think u need to shove there 3 betting to ~1250 is fine for resteal there
It's not just about being ahead in SNGs...
A program like ICM Explorer will tell you how much equity BU needs vs Hero's range in this spot, but I guess AQ will be a fold even vs ATC
i dont know how do u calculate that in icm explorer with all that bubble factor etc but even if SB (hero) shove as tight as 10% range AQ is easy call based on pot odds
Originally posted by TheRebuz
Originally posted by goldchess
Originally posted by TheRebuz
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
risk:reward isnt great because you are both so deep. his range is tighter than usual because hes obviously committing himself against the BB.yes you have FE, but risking 4.6k to win 675 isnt good at all, its just an overshove and many bad regs especially on these low stakes will not be good enough to lay down hands like TT or AQ/AK in this spot.
why should "bad reg" lay down TT AQ/AK if he knows that hero is restealing light here?
its not like hero standard play will be to shove QQ+,AK on that blind level with those stack sizes, which makes hands like TT/AK even AQ clearly ahead vs Hero resteal shoving rangebtw I dont think u need to shove there 3 betting to ~1250 is fine for resteal there
It's not just about being ahead in SNGs...
A program like ICM Explorer will tell you how much equity BU needs vs Hero's range in this spot, but I guess AQ will be a fold even vs ATCi dont know how do u calculate that in icm explorer with all that bubble factor etc but even if SB (hero) shove as tight as 10% range AQ is easy call based on pot odds
How do you work that out? AQ is a flip vs a 10% range
To break even in chips BU has to win 45%. If the risk aversion is greater than 5% its a bad call, which it obviously is here.
Ok I ran it through explorer.
Button needs 57.43% to call, if I have done this correctly. Never used this program before 
So AQ is a clear call vs ATC, but a clear fold vs 10%
Fold: 4220 chips, 0.1929, SD: $17.38
Win: 9490 chips, 0.3358
Lose: 0 chips, 0
Tie: 4745 chips, 0.21
Equity needed: 57.43%
Chip odds: 44.47%
Risk premium: 12.96%
Chips gained by marginal call: 1229.75.
Ties count as 62.53% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $19.07.
Originally posted by goldchess
Fold: 4220 chips, 0.1929, SD: $17.38
Win: 9490 chips, 0.3358
Lose: 0 chips, 0
Tie: 4745 chips, 0.21Equity needed: 57.43%
Chip odds: 44.47%
Risk premium: 12.96%
Chips gained by marginal call: 1229.75.
Ties count as 62.53% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $19.07.
i dont get how do u get to those numbers and what did they mean?
do u calculate by yourself (what mathematical equation you use) or did you use some program, can u explain it to me please?
you did it wrong goldchess
Equity needed: 71.61%
Chip odds: 43.33%
Risk premium: 28.28%
AQ and AK are clear folds even if hero reshoves ATC.
villain can only r/c strong pairs.
@TheRebuz: we use the ICM model in a SnG to calculate $EV compared to cEV. we can not use chip odds because there is a significant 'bubble factor' or 'risk factor' in this hand. as you can see our chip odds are 43% but we have to factor a 30% risk premium because of our risk-aversion on the bubble which makes strong hands like AQ/AK clear folds.
3betting small is an ok option, however a lot of players on this limit will flat the 3bet which is very bad for you because you have to cbet and end up bloating the pot oop with A9o which is easily dominated etc etc....
Originally posted by goldchess
A program like ICM Explorer will tell you how much equity BU needs vs Hero's range in this spot, but I guess AQ will be a fold even vs ATC
My intuition was right at least 
By the way should the bet for the BB not be 150 rather than 400?
I forgot to put Hero's bet in the bet column, I just assumed it would do it automatically.
Originally posted by goldchess
By the way should the bet for the BB not be 150 rather than 400?I forgot to put Hero's bet in the bet column, I just assumed it would do it automatically.
whoops yes sorry
Equity needed: 71.34%
Chip odds: 44.47%
Risk premium: 26.87%
Chips gained by marginal call: 2549.87.
Ties count as 74.8% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $19.42.
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
you did it wrong goldchessEquity needed: 71.61%
Chip odds: 43.33%
Risk premium: 28.28%
AQ and AK are clear folds even if hero reshoves ATC.
villain can only r/c strong pairs.
@TheRebuz: we use the ICM model in a SnG to calculate $EV compared to cEV. we can not use chip odds because there is a significant 'bubble factor' or 'risk factor' in this hand. as you can see our chip odds are 43% but we have to factor a 30% risk premium because of our risk-aversion on the bubble which makes strong hands like AQ/AK clear folds.
3betting small is an ok option, however a lot of players on this limit will flat the 3bet which is very bad for you because you have to cbet and end up bloating the pot oop with A9o which is easily dominated etc etc....
yea yea i agree about all that that you need to fold strong hands cos is bubble etc cos variance i bitch i get that concept
but how do u get that "risk factor" and "rick premium" how can you know what is risk factor and risk premium co u can calculate...
the risk-premium is the difference between $EV and cEV. This is fundamental to the ICM model and SnG strategy. This is a result of converting chips to a $ value. I suggest you read some of our SnG articles here:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/#basic
and watch some bronze level videos such as this:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/12410/
To calculate the risk-premium (the excess over cEV to get $EV) you can use programs such as ICM Explorer or SnG wizard. Or you can do the ICM calculation by hand (just google ICM calculation)
