[NL2-NL10] QQ NL25 nearly tripled stack

    • DessiP
      DessiP
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2009 Posts: 6,650
      The oponent seems to be an OK player considering the limit. Stats 12/10 (sample: 500 hands). There was something in his stats that made me call. PFR was the same from all possible positions and had only 17% fold vs 3bet out of 6 situations. Now that I look at the hand, I don't at all like how I played it. My 3bet only gets stronger hands to push and weaker ones to fold. With this kind of stats I can easily open with any pair and AJ+. It would have been better to just call and play postflop. Now that I look at all possible ways to play the hand, I don't consider a fold at all. 3bet/fold as well, considering he does not fold anything he raised with. 3bet/fold is at the edge, taking into account that an OK player would only push with KK+ or AK, against this range I am behind. It would have been better to just call and allow weaker hands from his range. I almost forgot, he has PRF 10% EP.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

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      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $6.12
      BB:
      $4.75
      MP1:
      $12.50
      MP2 (Hero):
      $12.28
      MP3:
      $17.46
      CO:
      $14.05
      BU:
      $16.38


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q.
      MP1 raises to $0.88, Hero raises to $2.38, 5 folds, MP1 raises to $12.50, Hero calls $9.90.

      Flop: ($25.13) 2, J, 8 (2 players)


      Turn: ($25.13) 7 (2 players)


      River: ($25.13) 5 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $25.13.
  • 6 replies
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      NH. Easy 3bet/AI for me. Also with 50bb stack.
      You cant call for set value. And you dont really want to contiue with a K or A on the deck.

      If his EP PFR is 10%, his range will be:
      66+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+

      He only folds 17% against 3bet which leaves 8,3%:
      66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+

      Since he should push anything he wants to continue (calling OOP sux badly), his range could be tighter like 4,2%:
      99+, AQs+, AKo

      Even against this tigher range, QQ simply crushes it.
      Player 1: 43,555 % 42,353 % 2,404 % 55,243 % 99+, AQs+, AKo
      Player 2: 56,445 % 55,243 % 2,404 % 42,353 % QQ

      Even if he decides to push really tight like KK+, AK, you have:
      Player 1: 60,143 % 59,925 % 0,435 % 39,640 % KK+, AKs, AKo
      Player 2: 39,857 % 39,640 % 0,435 % 59,925 % QQ

      With the money in the pot, you only need 39,4% EQ so you will still be fine ;)

      T.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey DessiP,

      Against 10% PFR I believe calling in position in order to play against wider range(not for set value) would be my choice. I don't really think this villain would go broke with 83% of his range against a 3-bet. You only have 6 situations in your stats and also those could be made in blind battles or some other particular situation so I would be a bit more conservative here. However, if villian does really go broke that loose then it would be easy 3-bet/broke.

      As played, even with not too reliable stats I don't think one can fold QQ against a player who has 17% fold to 3-bet. Good shove.

      I'll have Gerv have a look as well as this is quite a deviation from standard SSS.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey DessiP!

      In terms of EV one can say that both 3bet/jam and call pre is +EV. The question is where the bigger edge is. With this particular player who plays 12/10 which seems pretty tight and standard I think you turn QQ in some sort of marginalEV hand like TT/JJ.

      Unless you know for sure he will shove with JJ+,AK I really like playing Postflop IP. This keeps his weaker hands in his range + position with a SPR of 10ish

      @ Tampa:
      You assume a low fold to 3bet on 6 samples so I think your numbers are completely wrong here.
      I dont think a 12/10 will stick 66-TT,AJo,KQ in as a 4bet in FR like éver unless you tilt him really hard

      Furthermore calling QQ for set value is ridiculous. We play partly our hand and his hand and that includes floating on K-hi and A-hi boards since this is MSS

      As you displayed with 4 promille equity advantage: I think that calling pre gives you a bigger edge than 4 promille

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by Gerv
      @ Tampa:
      You assume a low fold to 3bet on 6 samples so I think your numbers are completely wrong here.
      I dont think a 12/10 will stick 66-TT,AJo,KQ in as a 4bet in FR like éver unless you tilt him really hard

      Furthermore calling QQ for set value is ridiculous. We play partly our hand and his hand and that includes floating on K-hi and A-hi boards since this is MSS

      As you displayed with 4 promille equity advantage: I think that calling pre gives you a bigger edge than 4 promille

      Best regards,
      Gerv
      Hi Gerv,

      Sure 17% f23bet isnt accurate with this sample size :f_biggrin:
      I think 50-70 f23bet is average at those limits.
      But I've calculated some examples which are all +EV as you stated as well.

      But if we call QQ IP, which hands do we 3bet if we ever 3bet and how do we balance???

      I agree ofcourse that we need to find to most ++++++EV line.

      T.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Advise the judge of taking another look at this thread
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      We don't balance on micro/ssnl

      Furthermore we can't balance and find most +EV spot at the same time

      You merely calculated your equity against ranges but you do not see the end result (EV in numbers, concrete profit)


      Hence we 3bet polarized towards value. But does our opponent know that? Definitly not