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[Closed] 99 vs fish, fold pre?

5 Posts
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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,460)
BB ($1,500)
UTG ($1,485)
UTG+1 ($3,010)
UTG+2 ($1,757)
MP1 ($1,383)
Hero ($1,450)
BTN ($1,455)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ 9♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to $120, fold, fold, Hero calls $120, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($300) K♠ 8♥ T♦

UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

TURN ($300) K♠ 8♥ T♦ 7♦

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $160, UTG+1 calls $160

RIVER ($620) K♠ 8♥ T♦ 7♦ J♠

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $240, UTG+1 raises to $600, Hero raises to $1,170 (AI), UTG+1 calls $570

He was raising almost every hand, i guess i should've 3-bet and try to get it in pre against him.

as played, would you bet fold against his small raise after making the low straight?


4 replies
Anssi
Joined: 03.07.2008

If he actually plays something like 80% of hands, I'd prefer a raise pre. Calling just leads you into many very hard situations. I'm not folding the river, but I don't think I'm 3/betting it either.


LgWz
Joined: 26.05.2007

Anyone likes checking the turn?


Anssi
Joined: 03.07.2008

I think betting is better. He has swown weakness + you can take him to value town.


3betting pre looks best against this guy.

when i do analysis on 3bets i want to see how much equity i need to call a 4bet shove.

Equity needed: 44.25%
Chip odds: 38.18%
Risk premium: 6.07%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.348% 45.61% 00.74% 426394068 6924342.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 53.652% 52.91% 00.74% 494675232 6924342.00 { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }

against this guy we can easily call a 4bet shove. Id expect him to ship worse pairs and worse aces as well.

so 3bet, take the initiative and go from there.

i bet this flop when checked to. by checking behind you basically give up on the hand (its unlikely he will check twice and a lot of turns will hurt your pair)
we are looking for value against draws mainly.

turn seems std to me as played. Again he is very weak, so we want value from his overs,draws etc...

river bet/call . dont bet/3bet.

he can still c/raise sets and 2-pair combos and even complete air as a bluff especially if hes spewy.