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[Closed] 5$ 99 on the bubble

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The blinds are super-low to be this far in the sng, but I'm the shortie with almost 0/0 vpip/pfr on this table. Button is a good reg, and I thought I'd often run into Ax hands here, or even KT+ or the likes which he could fold...
Should I've just folded, or is it an ok push?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $60(BB) Replayer
SB ($4,360)
Hero ($1,260)
CO ($4,102)
BTN ($3,778)

Dealt to Hero 9♥ 9♣

fold, BTN raises to $180, fold, Hero raises to $1,260 (AI), BTN calls $1,080
[
FLOP ($2,550) J♠ 4♦ 8♦

TURN ($2,550) J♠ 4♦ 8♦ 6♠

RIVER ($2,550) J♠ 4♦ 8♦ 6♠ T♠

Spoiler

BTN shows A♠ J♥
(Pre 45%, Flop 88.0%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero shows 9♥ 9♣
(Pre 55%, Flop 12.0%, Turn 4.5%)

BTN wins $2,550


3 replies
stevegold87
Joined: 18.06.2009

You are right, the blinds are so small I am very tempted to tell you to fold, but at the same time you are the shortstack here,

Isn't this a 88+ spot? At this point you want to up.

(Just checked with Wiz and it's a 88+ AQ+ spot, good shove imo)

If you make them more tight it's TT/JJ+ AK spot....

According to your reads it's a fold. But Pushing would not be a mistake imo also.

P.S : 0 vpip would be impossible considering their stacks. And therE's a huge difference if BTN is VPIP 8 or VPIP 16..

VPIP(let's assume here they openraise everyhand they put money in) VPIP = 8 : JJ+ AK
VPIP 16 : 99+ AJ+


Schris7
Joined: 15.01.2007

easy push since good regs are quite active in btn especially vs other tight regs


Hlynkinn
Joined: 14.06.2008

Regs are opening wide here and calling you probably too tight... so yea 88+ AQ+ looks good here...
the reg raise/calling with worse Ax and KT here would be really bad play... But I think 99 is still a push here if he's that bad =)