Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($128)
BB ($106)
UTG ($147)
Hero ($257)
CO ($176)
BTN ($116)
Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:spade:
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, fold, BTN calls $3, fold, fold
FLOP ($10.50) Q:club: 5:spade: Q:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $6, UTG folds, Hero calls $6
TURN ($22.50) Q:club: 5:spade: Q:diamond: 6:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero calls $14
RIVER ($50.50) Q:club: 5:spade: Q:diamond: 6:spade: 7:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets $29, Hero calls $29
utg 32/15/1, cbet 30%, 175hs.
BU villain is an aggressive, loose regular: 29/24/4, wts 33, 750hs. Bet vs missed cb in position, 83%
I put villain's range for betting here: Qx (realistically QT/QJ/QK - I assume he squeezes AQ with squeeze percentage of 14%), 55, air, & some medium pocket pairs. I think we can assume that the air part of his range has almost no chance to catch up. Each of the Qx hands we currently beat have 3 outs to make a better fh and 3/6 outs on flop/turn to split by pairing the board.
main question is about T+R. If villain puts me on a medium pocket pair (TT/JJ) he could try to get me off these hands and raising turn will prevent him barrelling. On the other hand if villain has a worse Qx, in theory the raise should get stacks in -- although villain may be good enough to get away.
On the River could not decide whether or not to shove. Mainly depends on whether villain will call KQ/QJ/QT... when we shove the River we are repping the nuts so I'm not sure. If he's only calling 55 or turned 66 then of course we cannot.
Thanks
