[Closed] nl100 Rush blind battle vs reg

Was the bluff raise river against you? Im not too sure if i like the river bet, and it could certainly induce a raise. But this is a bvb spot, where he certainly can float alot and this board hits his range pretty much. Your bet sizing on the river could have given away a tell but with very little draws busted draws other than KQ that floated or weak sd hands(turn into bluff) tt flatted your min raise, this is definitely a tough spot and i would be inclined to fold alot as unless he picked up on ur river sizing tell(really dot like it) he has more combos in his range that would call down vs bluffs than try to rep a bd flush which u could actually have. Overall i dont like your play if u c/mr, i dont think u can value bet the river and anyway you have already gotten extra value.

p.s. i was typing this on my iphone while out accompanying someone shopping..
what i meant was i don't like your play on the river, i'm cool with your flop and turn play

Thanks for this, supeyrio. Yeah, the bluff river raise was vs me (some while ago, though).

So, in principle is the ch/minR on turn okay? I mean we charge draws and get more value from Tx.

How does this compare to ch/call turn?

On river you would prefer checking I guess, and then likely fold to a bet since he is checking behind pretty often? And we are mostly behind his betting range?

What value hands would you expect him to show up with when he raises the river like this? And what hands in my range could call a raise of this size?

(He can certainly have TT here, ofc, but I think he would normally 3b the turn for value with straight and flush draws on board.)

cheers,
T

if he bluff raised you, then i doubt he'll do it again since firstly, you've shown that you're inclined to call down. secondly, players generally use certain lines as bluffs and then adjust later on to become a value line after they think that their opponents have picked up on the earlier read.

we get extra value definitely, and also possible free showdown vs stronger Jx who maybe afraid to bet most rivers.

i think ch/call turn is standard play, since if we ch/mr we may get a funky min3b or something.

if i ch/call turn, i really find it hard ch/calling river again, since very few combos are bluff betting, and he's not going to value bet his weak pairs and probably try to show it down i guess.
i usually try to play more straightfwd OOP vs a less than standard player unless i have good reads.

i can only think of a flush, or at worse a Q9. i doubt sets would shove on the river and i do think he could 3b turn to make it less than 1psb on the river for easy shove.

cheers

If villain is any good, just fold that trash preflop. As played pre and flop, don't rly understand why would you ever c/mr any hand on turn? I'd say on river, you're 90%+ beat by flush that villain is raising big for value since you rep 2pair/sets/draws on turn with your c/mr. Just can't follow your thought process, your turn c/mr vs. KQ/98 is way too thin and way too small imo.

If villain is any good, just fold that trash preflop.

Agreed - the raise is probably too thin. However, villain's fold vs steal is 79% (74% in bb) so when we risk $2.50 to win $1.5 we need him to fold 60% even if we give up and ch/f on every flop, so it cant be too bad imo.

As played pre and flop, don't rly understand why would you ever c/mr any hand on turn?

Well, we will often be check/folding on the turn oop - epecially vs decent villain when bd hits his range.
Especially when villain is likely to bet the turn if we check, check/call or check/R should have a higher ev than barreling since we likely have to fold to a turn raise.

In this hand, I agree that our hand is not rly strong enough to ch/R for value. However, I think there is something to be said for ch/R turn to get a free showdown? Otherwise, we check/call turn and then have a tough decision on the river if villain bets again. As played when villain just calls our ch/R we can put him on a medium made hand or draw I think.

However, given this I agree that betting the river is a mistake - it doesnt fit with our assumptions since the draws fold (or bluff raise) and the weak made hands are prolly too weak to call so we valuetown ourselves vs better. In retrospect, the only reason for betting this river is to incite villain into bluffraising his missed draws/turning w/m/hs into a bluff. I think this can be ok but it requires stronger nerves than I have!

Just can't follow your thought process, your turn c/mr vs. KQ/98 is way too thin and way too small imo.

Overall, I agree. But it depends on what the ch/R is intended to achieve. If villain has a draw or Tx on turn, we are better off when he pays $16 to get to the river than when he pays $8. The other point is that with our small flop bet and small ch/R we are more likely to confuse villain into making a mistake of some kind.

I still have some trouble putting villain on a hand he can play this way, other than KcQc. Even then I think his river raise size is too polarised since if we had a set on the turn we would never raise that small.

Again, if he's any good, he's not going to be folding vs. your 40-50% sb steal range with >70% of his hands when he's IP. You just can't stare at his fold to steal values, because that's also when he's oop so that won't cut it. It gives you an idea of how light he's playing back but if he's anything but another nit/fish, there's no way you can open J9o profitably oop. I didn't even mention that you're over 200bb deep, which should make you less likely to open any hands from sb. There's just nothing you want to hit with J9o oop that you want to go broke with. It's simply a fold preflop, unless he's a) a nit b) a fish c) too straightforward.

Well, we will often be check/folding on the turn oop - epecially vs decent villain when bd hits his range.

If that's the case, you should tighten up your a) preflop range b) cbetting range. You're putting in dead money in the pot both preflop and on flop, if you'll be c/fing often on turns.

In this hand, I agree that our hand is not rly strong enough to ch/R for value. However, I think there is something to be said for ch/R turn to get a free showdown?

Again, if villain is good. There's no way, you can ever c/mr turn for free showdown. What do you do, if villain 3bets you on turn? I do agree that he's probably never doing that with a decent draw but to me it seems that he can easily have just pure air on turn (or any gs), since you're opening too light which means he can easily float the flop with more than half of his defending range. Given the stack depth I don't think it's a horrible spot to 3bet a draw on turn from his part because you propably need 44+ to actually call down after that.

Also, when you c/mr turn, you're not trying to get stacks in. Ever. Which actually means that you never have a real hand on turn. So I actually don't 100% agree with my first thoughts about his raising range on river. There probably are a decent amount of bluffs in his range, because you never have a real hand on river to call a raise with unless you just rivered a flush.

Vs. me that could easily work out pretty well with the line you took but it's just because I wouldn't have a clue what you're trying to represent with that line you took. Also I don't ever see you calling the river raise without a flush so maybe that is well played, even though I rly don't get the idea behind it.

Obviously I don't know anything rly about the villain. But given the stats you provided he could be a decent player.

You are also making an assumption about how light I am opening as a general rule. My raise first in from SB is 28%, not 40-50%, which would indeed be pretty suicidal.

Dont get me wrong - I'm not really trying to defend opening J9o here vs this guy - I think its loose and we could comfortably fold. J9o is bottom of range and definitely a fold vs someone who defends widely.

I cant find a way of accessing stats for calling BB vs SB open raise on HEM - is there such a thing? But if it is something like 65% + (and I would expect it to be, even for a good player in position, playing Rush) then the preflop raise needn't be unprofitable per se (but I agree it might become bad depending on how we play post).

Originally posted by Shevtshenko.
Vs. me that could easily work out pretty well with the line you took but it's just because I wouldn't have a clue what you're trying to represent with that line you took .

agree with this. this line would baffle me alot too and i believe people take this lines dont have a standard range. i've also done this with some success albeit small sample size and i didnt really study too much into it before hand just pure poker instinct.
this is also why i like it because it's out of the box poker. just whether it is applied in the right situation takes more indepth studying definitely. but the point is it confuses good regs and they will start to make mistakes.

28% vs. good players is a lot. You need to be soul reading postflop to profit with all those hands. The 40-50% just came from my assumptions on how wide a range fits J9o into it but I just checked that it's actually within top 30% of hands, which still puzzles me a bit.

And no, there still isn't any stat for one defending vs. sb steals in hem. Even though I think I've asked and begged for it at least for 6 months.

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Again, if he's any good, he's not going to be folding vs. your 40-50% sb steal range with >70% of his hands when he's IP. You just can't stare at his fold to steal values, because that's also when he's oop so that won't cut it. It gives you an idea of how light he's playing back but if he's anything but another nit/fish, there's no way you can open J9o profitably oop. I didn't even mention that you're over 200bb deep, which should make you less likely to open any hands from sb. There's just nothing you want to hit with J9o oop that you want to go broke with. It's simply a fold preflop, unless he's a) a nit b) a fish c) too straightforward.

I pretty much agree with this.

Of course how light you can open depends on how much the opponent defends and how big your skill advantage (or disadvantage) is, but just as a point of reference: I know of players who open as tight as 12% in the SB vs regs.

As played whether we can checkraise the turn for value like this or not depends on how much he 3bets.
If he's 3betting a lot he doesn't have hands like KJ and maybe not even QJ in his range because he'd 3bet them for value pre.
In this case I like the c/r , but I'd usually still make it slightly bigger than a mincheckraise because no reg ever bluffs by mincheckraising - he will perceive this as stronger as if you made it $19 IMO.

On the river with your read I like the bet/call a lot. There aren't too many better hands he can show up with at this point.

Okay, thanks everyone for their comments on this interesting hand. Villain showed up with QTo here.

I guess his best line is to check behind on the turn given that he can't really bet for value vs me (but perhaps he does not want to give KQ a free card), and also wants to balance his air?

On the turn my line makes no sense to him so he calls (maybe putting me on KQ or Air). I don't think he can possibly be calling my ch/R on the turn already thinking he is behind and intending to bluff any River so he must think he is good at this point.

On the River, however, my bet size looks to him like it is for value and he realises:
1. he is beat, but
2. My range is not that strong (which is correct)

So he bluff raises big. I think his line is okay but problem is he is repping so few hands (to make up for this he makes the raise pretty huge).

I am too much of a station to give him credit ( and I have read that he is capable of bluff raising).

Finally, I have reflected on this hand and I agree that opening this wide against such a player is a recipe for disaster (very bad for my nerves!)