Quick question on BR management

    • Frankyx911
      Frankyx911
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 25
      easy question but i wonder...

      I've set myself a 20 buy-in/limit move up/down witch failed when I first hit NL10
      SO I uped it to 25 buy-in.... now im at that 25 Buy-in for the next limit but...

      When I've put that bankroll rule I was playing only 2 tables at a time...

      I am now playing 9 tables at a time ... and... 25 Buy-in -9 active tables leaves me whit only 16 Buy-in (not that i think I can loose all 9 at the same time but still)...seems a lot to put more then 1/3rd my bankroll in play at a time ...

      Anyone as an Idea of ... how many Buy-in I should roll whit at 9 tables?
      Just to make sure i dont get it wrong and end up whit a bad session that automaticly mean going down in limits...
      Any articles out there ?
      What rules do you use for bankroll management ? If any
  • 6 replies
    • gsergiul
      gsergiul
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2010 Posts: 234
      Around 40 imo at least to be comfortable, EVEN if you lose all you still won't have a HUGE blow to your br, but if you have 25 a big chunk of it will be gone and you'll be left with a huge dent in your bankroll / morale.
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Silver
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      In my opinion 25BI is fine unless you make your living from poker and cant afford to move down when you hit some rough times. You have to remember that there is nothing to be upset about when having to move down after a failed shot, and at the micros I personally would recommend aggressive BRM so you can move up as fast as possible.

      That said, you dont want to play outside of your comfort zone, so if you require 40BI to feel safe there is nothing wrong with that either.

      Hope it helps.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Some people want a bankroll for psychological reasons. If you need 100 buy-ins to be able to play your A-game, then you better have 100 buy-ins.

      However, there is another very real reason to need a bankroll, and that is to weather the downswings which will occur. The downswings depend on your win rate. If your win rate is half that of another player's, or your win rate at a lower level, then you will see downswings which are twice as large, so you need twice the bankroll to be as safe. You NEED to know your win rate to know how large the downswings will be. Other people can tell you about their win rates, but not yours. If you don't know that you are a winning player at all, you need to set a budget for poker rather than thinking about bankroll management.

      A good bankroll formula is

      bankroll = comfort * SD^2 / WR

      where comfort depends on your risk tolerance and ability/willingness to move down. A comfort level of 2 is aggressive. A comfort level of 4 is conservative. SD is your standard deviation, which is reported by programs like PokerTracker and Hold'em Manager, and it is typically about 90 big blinds/100 hands for 6-max players who buy in full, but it depends on playing style. WR is your win rate. For example, if you use a middle-of-the-road comfort level of 3, and your SD is 90 big blinds/100 hands, and your win rate is 6 big blinds/100 hands, then your bankroll should be about

      3 * 90^2 / 6 = 4050 big blinds = 40.5 buy-ins.

      If your win rate is only 3 big blinds/100, then you need twice as many, or 81 buy-ins.

      If your bankroll drops below this amount, it doesn't mean you have to stop. However, playing with less than half of the recommended bankroll should be viewed as an expense.
    • Frankyx911
      Frankyx911
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 25
      Thx for all your response pzhon i like your math based BR management as it adjusts to your mind state
      I wouldnt be as comfortable playin NL50 as NL5 it makes sense to give a rating to comfort that could change as you move the limits too...
      I've finally decided to go to 20BI for NL5...
      good thing its up 18BI in the past 4 session ... or 2 days :D
      9 table rocks !! :s_biggrin:
      think ill up it to 25BI for NL10 as hmmm 90$ is about what i make a day workin so ... comfort took a drop lol
    • Frankyx911
      Frankyx911
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 25
      BTw... you must need a big sample to have a good equation too cuz my BB/100 is kinda ridiculous ATM... on 28k hand sample 22,4bb/100

      And i dont know how to calculate my SD... Read somewhere real quick that an aproximation would be 10x BB/100
      Standard deviation is a number that most people don't calculate and can be tedious to do so which is why many people use 10 times their win rate as a standard approximation


      that would give me ... at a comfort of 3...

      3* 224^2 / 22.4 = 67.2 lol
      (this is FR too)

      I'm using holdem manager but i've got no idea of how to calculate SD any help pls? :D
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Using 10 times your win rate as your standard deviation might accidentally be correct, but it will often be very far off. If your win rate is small, this does NOT mean your standard deviation is small. Standard deviation is reported by programs like PokerTracker 3 and Hold'em Manager, so just look it up there, or use something like 90 big blinds/100.

      The win rate you are supposed to plug into the bankroll calculations is your true win rate, not your observed win rate. In practice, you don't know your true win rate, you just make estimates, and one source of danger is overestimating your win rate so that you think you are safer than you are. A rough 95% confidence interval for your win rate after n * 100 hands is your observed win rate +- 2 SD / sqrt(n). So, if your standard deviation is 90 bb/100, a 95% confidence interval after 10k hands is your observed win rate +- 2 * 90 / sqrt(100) = observed win rate +- 18 big blinds/100.

      Usually, you can say you have strong evidence that you are a winning player long before you have a tight estimate of your win rate. So, you might say that in case your win rate is only X, then your bankroll needs to be Y to provide the safety you want. Update this as you play more hands and have a better idea what your win rate is.