Did I calculate it right ?

    • hohoho321
      hohoho321
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2010 Posts: 493
      SB: $20,37
      Hero: $13,18

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.87 by http://www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:, K: (Коментар)
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0,30, 2 folds, SB raises to $1,00, BB folds, Hero raises to $3,10, SB calls $2,10.

      Flop: ($6,30) 4:, 5:, 3: (2 players) (Коментар)
      SB bets $6,30, Hero raises to $10,08 (All-In), SB calls $3,78.

      After the donk on the flop , I put him on TT-QQ ( or JJ-QQ doesn't matter ) against which I have 36% equilty
      So let'sto calculate my pot odds : call isn't an option
      I must give 10$ to win 12,60+3,70 ( Pot + the money he will pay )
      So the wanted eq will be "x"
      16,30x - 10(1-x) > 0
      26,3x > 10
      x>10/26,3
      x>38% ( that makes it -ev even without the addit. rake )
      Is that calculation right ?


      And can you tell me how to calculate the exact ammount of the money I loose with this move ?
  • 10 replies
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by hohoho321
      And can you tell me how to calculate the exact ammount of the money I loose with this move ?

      Board: 4:diamond: 5:heart: 3:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    36.89%  34.75%   2.15% { AcKc }
      SB     63.11%  60.96%   2.15% { QQ-TT }


      So ignoring the rake completely:
      -10 * 63.11% + 16.3 * 34.75% + 8.15 * 2.15% =
      -$6.31 + $5.66 + $0.18 =
      -$0.47 EV

      I didn't account for the rake at all. You will need to take the full amount out of 16.3 and half that amount and replace 8.15.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Breakeven needed = 44%
      EV = -7.935 (I didn't included the rake)

      Call = False, I mean you shouldn't shove there especially if you put him on that range or any pair (IMHO)

      Look forward to hear from expert voices about :)
    • hohoho321
      hohoho321
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2010 Posts: 493
      @ tokyoaces
      1. so for instance the rake is 0.7 , the pot becomes 15,6 half is 7.8
      Now 8,15-7,8 = 0.35 and the final ev is -0,47 -0,35 = -0,82$ is that right ?
      2. I think there is mistake in your calculation ( probably due to distraction ) because you calculate " -10 * 63.11% " not -10*60.96% as It maybe should be

      @kiromanAAKK how did u do your calculations briefly ?
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Originally posted by hohoho321
      @ tokyoaces
      1. so for instance the rake is 0.7 , the pot becomes 15,6 half is 7.8
      Now 8,15-7,8 = 0.35 and the final ev is -0,47 -0,35 = -0,82$ is that right ?
      2. I think there is mistake in your calculation ( probably due to distraction ) because you calculate " -10 * 63.11% " not -10*60.96% as It maybe should be

      @kiromanAAKK how did u do your calculations briefly ?
      SB: $20,37
      Hero: $13,18

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A :, K : (Коментар)
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0,30, 2 folds, SB raises to $1,00, BB folds, Hero raises to $3,10, SB calls $2,10.

      Flop: ($6,30) 4 :, 5 :, 3 : (2 players) (Коментар)
      SB bets $6,30, Hero raises to $10,08 (All-In), SB calls $3,78.

      Pot $6.30
      Bet $10.30

      Breakeven equity needed 10.30/(6.30+10.30) or 6.30/(10.30/6.30+1) both the case equal to 37.95%

      For the EV I suppose that Hero got 4 outs (2h, 2s, 2d, 2c) and 5 cards seen (2 holding and 3 for the flop)
      So, I calculate like that
      (equity win x win)+(equity lose x [-lose])
      (8.51%*$10.30)+(89.36%*-$6.30) that is equal to –4.75

      Sorry, in the previous calculations I got the wrong amount in the calculation :D
    • hohoho321
      hohoho321
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2010 Posts: 493
      Well , the thing is that I have more outs against the range that I put him(JJ-QQ ) .
      So this equilty of 8% is untrue against this range .
      However if we dont't take in account that , the calcualations u've made seem also right.
    • phathustler
      phathustler
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.01.2011 Posts: 23
      To account for the rake, you want to change the payoffs in the cases where you win.

      So, in those above EV expressions, you'd change the 16.3 and the 8.15.
      For example, if the rake is 5%, then you'd use (0.95)(16.3) = 14.485 in place of 16.3.

      Doing that, I'd get
      (.3475)(0.95*16.38) + (.6311)(-10.08) + (0.0215)(0.95*16.38*0.5)
      = - 0.7868

      We're using 63.11% because the probabilities we use are
      probability of us winning, probability of us losing, probability of us tying.
      We win 34.75% of the time, and we tie 2.15% of the time. The times we lose are the times we don't win or tie, so that's the remaining 63.11% of the time. (As a check, the probabilities have to add up to 1.)

      You can figure out the required break-even equity required by using a variable in place of the equities or probabilities, setting it to 0 and solving. That is:
      unknown equity * winnings + (1 - same unknown equity) * ( - losings) = 0
      and solving for the unknown equity. So in particular here (not accounting for rake):
      x(16.38) + (1-x)(-10) = 0
      x = around 0.38, so 38%


      Aaaand, just for fun.
      http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28b%29%28q%280.95*16.38%29+%2B+%281-q%29%28-10%29%29+%2B+%281-b%29%28%28.3475%29%280.95*16.38%29+%2B+%28.6311%29%28-10.08%29+%2B+%280.0215%29%280.95*16.38*0.5%29%29+%3E+0
      That should be the equation with an unknown chance that they are bluffing and an unknown equity against their bluffing range. The graph that should show up on that page has shaded blue regions where it would become profitable to shove if you knew that they would bluff with probability at least b and you had at least equity q against that range. (Only the positive values are meaningful)

      Hopefully I didn't make any mistakes in all of this.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Originally posted by hohoho321
      Well , the thing is that I have more outs against the range that I put him(JJ-QQ ) .
      So this equilty of 8% is untrue against this range .
      However if we dont't take in account that , the calcualations u've made seem also right.
      So, if we count more outs as u would like considerate (10 outs = 2h, 2s, 2d, 2c, Ah, As, Ad, Kh, Ks, Kd) then the call become (even if marginal, I mean bordline) with a positive expected value (of 4.032 about EV) with a breakeven equity needed of 37.95% far off Hero equity of 63%

      @phathustler: my calculation for the EV doesnt count the rake and plus is part of a calculator where it simple takes advantage of one of the COTW by 2p2 that simple take the some outright$EV like (equity win x win) + (equity lose x - lose) as be taught by Harrington in any of his books under the voice "expected value". It come necessary to grid value for the sake of the tool and not as flexible mathematical quantity variable otherwise it will result impossibile to setting a default calculation. :)
    • hohoho321
      hohoho321
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.07.2010 Posts: 493
      ok , now I understand all I need .
      Thank you
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by hohoho321
      2. I think there is mistake in your calculation ( probably due to distraction ) because you calculate " -10 * 63.11% " not -10*60.96% as It maybe should be
      Oops, I did make that mistake! It sounds like you got enough information from the rest of the thread though. =)
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by kiromanAAKK
      Originally posted by hohoho321
      Well , the thing is that I have more outs against the range that I put him(JJ-QQ ) .
      So this equilty of 8% is untrue against this range .
      However if we dont't take in account that , the calcualations u've made seem also right.
      So, if we count more outs as u would like considerate (10 outs = 2h, 2s, 2d, 2c, Ah, As, Ad, Kh, Ks, Kd) then the call become (even if marginal, I mean bordline) with a positive expected value (of 4.032 about EV) with a breakeven equity needed of 37.95% far off Hero equity of 63%

      @phathustler: my calculation for the EV doesnt count the rake and plus is part of a calculator where it simple takes advantage of one of the COTW by 2p2 that simple take the some outright$EV like (equity win x win) + (equity lose x - lose) as be taught by Harrington in any of his books under the voice "expected value". It come necessary to grid value for the sake of the tool and not as flexible mathematical quantity variable otherwise it will result impossibile to setting a default calculation. :)

      The call really isn't that bad. I doubt his range is only TT-QQ. If he calls 4-bets with that his also bad enough to call AQ, AJ, KQ that now flopped a FD and your actually ahead some %% of the time which bumps your equity up to 40%. If there would be 100BB stacks i think its a pretty easy call, given its 130bb stacks it becomes a little more marginal and probably neutral EV.