[NL2-NL10] TT and JJ against SSS player

    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      Two hands where villains are probably SSS players.

      In best case I am against AK which is coin-flip. Should I fold?

      Hand 1:
      CO:
      $5
      Hero:
      $4.75

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T:club: , T:diamond: . CO posts a blind of $0.25.
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP3 folds, CO raises to $5.00 (All-In), 4 folds, Hero raises to $4.75 (All-In).

      Hand 2:
      MP1:
      $5
      Hero:
      $4.30

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J:club: , J:diamond:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.00, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $5.00 (All-In), 6 folds, Hero raises to $4.30 (All-In).
  • 8 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      1) If we are up against SS player, then his range is: JJ+, AKs, AKo. We have 33.6% of equity against it and need minimum of 33.3% -> call (edited)

      2) the second one is a bit more tricky.

      If we assume the normal SS reraise range: JJ+, AKs, AKo against which we have 36% equity, we have to fold, because we need 43% of equity. Besides, if the short stack is smart, he wouldn`t reraise with AK, since he doesn`t get enough equity against our range from UTG (the same JJ+, AKs, AKo). so if we think that he is smart)) and not reraising with AK, then our equity drops to 20%...

      In both hands we have to be sure that they are true short stacks, though)
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      OK thanks ... But I have one small problem. Where did you get 39% in first and 43% at second hand?
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      Get equilator from the download area and plug in your hand and the range of the opposition. Have fun
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      This two numbers aren't percentage of winning hand, but pot odds. I get it now. When I was calculating them I completely forgot to include blinds. :D

      Edit: NO! Crap .. Still don't get it! Now I am so confused ....
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      Ok, let me try to go through entire situation for the first hand, because these calculations are quite new to me.
      If we want to have positive EV following condition must be true:
      If we want to have positive expectation, pot odds must be higher than odds of winning our hand. Odds are ratio.

      I will do this for the first hand.

      1. Equity:
      In our case Equilator gives our TT against villains range of JJ+,AKo,AKs 33,6% equity (rounded to 34%). This means we must win 34 cases out of 100 cases. So we can write this as 66:34 and cancel to 1.94:1.

      2. Pot odds:
      Now I must determine pot-odds.
      I have chance of winning:
      0.1 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 1.5 + 1.5 + (4.75 – 1.5) = 6.85$
      Expression in parantheses tells us how much is left to the hero after raise.
      For that I must pay 3.25$.
      So it is 6.85:3.25 and if we cancel this 2.1:1.
      We can convert this into percents. We get (1/(2.1+1)) = 32%

      3. Conclusion:
      pot odds: 2.1:1
      odds for win: 1.94:1
      Pot odds are better than 1.94:1 so calling here is EV+.

      If we are looking at this from percentage view, equity percentages must be higher than in percentage converted pot-odds.

      4. Expected value:

      EV = (0.336 * 6.85$ – 0.664 * 3.25$) = 2.30$ - 2.16$ = 0.14$

      Our call here is EV+ in long run, but just slightly. So when doing such calls I want to have some more dead money in pot.

      Are these calculations and thinking correct? I have no clue where your 39% has come from. What am I missing?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Ok, I made a calculation mistake, but lets start from the beginning:

      If we want to have positive expectation, pot odds must be higher than odds of winning our hand. Odds are ratio.

      correct

      1. Equity: In our case Equilator gives our TT against villains range of JJ+,AKo,AKs 33,6% equity (rounded to 34%). This means we must win 34 cases out of 100 cases. So we can write this as 66:34 and cancel to 1.94:1.


      2. Pot odds: Now I must determine pot-odds. I have chance of winning:


      vice versa. Odds (equity) - chance of winning
      Pot odds (% need to win) - must win

      EDIT: Unless I understood you correctly. If you meant that you should win in 34% of the time and have a chance to win 6.75$ then you are right.

      0.1 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 1.5 + 1.5 + (4.75 – 1.5) = 6.85$


      for the simplicity we assume that blinds are raked. 0.25(utg) + 1.5(your bet) + 4.75(CO`s raise) / 3.25 (call) = 2:1 = 1/3 = 33.3%

      => 33.6% (odds to win) > 33.3% (need to win (pot odds %)) => call. obviously marginal) but, the remote possibility of him playing this hand with a range different then assumed will make it more +EV.

      39% was my miscalculation) besides, my conclusion was also wrong.
      we had to win in 39% of the time, but had only 33.6% of equity) clear fold) anyway, sorry for this)

      So I use percentages, but you can do it vice versa, if you want. Find equity, convert to odds -> compare with pot odds. In this case pot odds should be higher.

      What I do is convert pot odds to % need to win and compare with equity. In this case equity should be higher)


      You calculated EV correctly, my number is a bit different (because I raked the blinds)

      EV = (0.336 * 6.5$) – (0.664 * 3.25$) = 2.184$ - 2.158$ = 0.026$ ))

      But lets assume 1 out of 10 times the guy plays it slightly different by any reason (girlfriend, alchogol, mood, etc.)

      - he adds AJ and AQ to his range (we have 44% equity now)

      0.9*0.026$ + 0.1*( 0.44*6.5 - 0.56*3.25 ) = 0.0234 + 0.104 = 0.1274

      It won`t make us millioners long term, however, it increases our EV 5 times))
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      Thank you very very much. Now I can do some calculations myself. It will be a lot of fun playing with numbers.

      1.
      2. Pot odds: Now I must determine pot-odds. I have chance of winning:

      I meant if I invest 3.25 I have chance of winning 6.75.

      2.
      => 33.6% (pot odds) > 33.3% (odds) => call.

      You probably meant: 33.6% (odds) > 33.3% (pot odds) => call.

      3. So raked blinds means that approximately combined amount of BB and SB is taken by the house as rake?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      yeah, you are right about number 2) sorry again, was sleepy)

      3) yeah, this is correct. If you want to be 100% accurate, the rake is 34.25c))

      partypoker takes 1c from each 20c of the pot on NL 25$

      this information can be found here
      http://www.partypoker.com/how_to_play/rake_and_blind.html

      Thank you very very much. Now I can do some calculations myself. It will be a lot of fun playing with numbers.


      always gald to help, but don`t forget to post it) so we can check it)