- 28.05.2011, 12:27
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- This post has been edited 17 time(s), it was last edited by KillerFishes: 30.05.2011 05:24.

Mathematics in poker by KillerFishes - I. Combinatorics - Basic of Basics!

Mathematics in poker by KillerFishes - II. Range - myth called "NIT"

Mathematics in poker by KillerFishes - II. Range - myth called "NIT"

*If you haven't read my first article, please check it first, it will help you understand today's topic. You can find link to that above.*

Hi there guys,

it’s weekend and it means more Math in poker! Today we will work on ranges and calculating ranges. I would call this stuff again basic of basics, however, I’ve already met a lot of good players who have really bad picture about ranges – that's just enhanced by using HEM,PT (which I recommend to everyone!)

For me, this is the most extended myth in microgame cashgame, I call it NIT MYTH. We will look closer just in any minute.

At first what really RANGE means for us?

Of course range = some cards which are expressed in percentage (for example 10% PRF).

So well we can count it as COMBINATIONS of 2 cards, which are sorted by their strength.

I guess a lot of people just have NO CLUE about what hands are 10% they really can’t make some range conclusion based on informations, which track programs contains.

Just make your guess! What hands do you think is hidden behind PRF 10% write it below before you read any futher…

I have to say that I’ve been playing long time in NIT MYTH – I thought 10% is something like TT+,AQ+ at the worst scenario! Therefore I was easily giving up +EV spots, because I had bad picture about opponents range!

Well then, let’s count that! What RANGE – combinations of 2 cards, we can assume in 10% PFR.

You can try it on your own and just check it in here, you should all be able to do it on your own if you’ve read my first article!

Again we will need this formula:

At first we need m(A), you all already know it’s

P(A) – probability of phenomenom A

m(A) – positive phenomenoms of A (all combinations in 10%)

m – all combinations

Well we got number 133, but now what? What means 133? We already know that ATC have 16 options to be made and any pair 6 of them. Now, we have to count these to get as close as possible to the number 133. I know it’s kind of slavish, however, it will help you a lot)

We will count it by strength – AA,KK,AK and so on (6+6+16….)

As I suppose a lot of you will be quite lazy and just skip the count part, which is the most important I will write it down here: ))

5,7

AA(6),KK(6),AK(16),AQ(16),QQ(6),AJ(16),JJ(6),AT(16),KQ(16),TT(6),99(6),88(6), KJs(4) , A9s(4) ..

88+, AT+,A9s+,KJs+

So this is our 10% PFR range (of course we don’t have to match in every combination, because sometimes players are tend to play more deped on hand playabilities than real value, however, it doesn’t matter at all. The important thing is if you have learned something new and I hope you have.

Still the counting like this is quite difficult I will show you an easier way … You know that for any pair the probability is ~0,5% for ATC(suited and unsuited) 1,2%... It’s much easier than count 16+6+6+16 etc and in like 10s you can have pretty good image about opponents range.

I can advice you just to try it on your own. I think that after like 10 calculations of different situations you will be able to just look at stats and say pretty accurate range. It will help you a lot in your decisions and game, as you can easily say then, how often he will get for example AT+,66+,A2+

As the time will go, you will make your own „checkpoints“ – your first might be 10% we have done up, for example I have engraved in my mind this + 5% 99+,AJ+ …

Right now, you can count a lot of different situations, which you have to face in your daily sessions. Ranges are very important (and be able to calculate 10% -> combinations of cards and back to percentage)

Even though they look so boring and a lot of people can say they won’t lose their time with that. I’m convinced that more than half of them wouldn’t expect that range for 10/10 player, who is usually cold NIT is same, as we had calculated!…

Therefore, MYTH BUSTED!

Thanks for your time, I hope it helped next time we will make some more serious calculations)

Cya,

KillerFishes