Silver Odds & Outs - Example 2 [discussion]

    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      I hope PS won't mind the image included here.


      Few may know that today is when I intend to study poker. The topic I chose for this morning is Odds and Outs. To facilitate this learning I've found something that may warrant a little discussion.

      Example #2 from odds and outs (page 3).

      I wanted to talk about the number of outs we're giving ourselves on the flop vs these villains for our 1 card flush draw.

      After the button folds on the flop, we're left to assume that we're up against 3 opponents rather than 4. From here we go on to give ourselves 10 outs.

      Lets consider a preflop situation where MP3 open limps, CO raises, and Button folds. Both blinds call and we are again 4 ways to the flop.

      Now, CO bets, SB raises and we're considering our outs. The cost to continue may change since 2 players are left to act behind us BUT this largely influences our odds and I would like to discuss our outs.

      So, with this new situation how many outs do we have? Our article suggests we have just 7 outs now. I think this represents a kind of disconnect.


      To really illustrate my problem, imagine a flop scenario where 9 players are involved. The preflop/UTG raiser bets, everyone folds to the small blind who raises and we are again 3 handed. Once again we would have 10 outs.... ? I don't think so. I think we would be correct in discounting our outs much further because of the number of players who saw the flop.

      I guess I'm advocating for two factors when discounting outs:

      1) the number of players who saw the flop.
      2) the number of players who are very likely to continue to the turn.

      Number 2 may be more important with respect to the action we are facing on the flop... but sometimes number 1 will significantly influence our outs.

      In the revised scenario i've presented we give ourselves just 7 outs... but I think this situation is much closer to a 3 way hand and our outs are not quite as good as 10, but better than 7.
  • 3 replies
    • Helipacter
      Helipacter
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2010 Posts: 474
      Won't we be adding too many assumptions into our calculations when doing this?

      I mean you can't say for sure what the people seeing either the flop or turn have, so you won't be able to narrow down the field enough in terms of outs. You can certainly put them on ranges, and then calculate the combos for each, but you would then have to branch out the worst and best case scenarios for both. Seems a little Rainman to me, but then I'm not a math-guy.

      Though it certainly would be interesting to test this over a session review and see what you get.
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Basically, I think that the example i gave is very similar to the example given in example #2. Hand values should run pretty close in value despite the differences between examples. However, using the article leads us to make some pretty different conclusions about those hands and I think this is interesting.

      Regarding your post, I haven't really given a method for re-calculating our outs... but I think you're right in suggesting that making an adjustment like this is tricky business.

      I think we can assume something like: they're unlikely to fold strong hands or draws, and the more players that see the flop the more likely we are to be up against a strong hand or draw.

      Another way to put this is to say we can assume that the our pot equity on the flop will depend significantly on the number of players who see the flop.

      I think both assumptions are general enough so I'm not suggesting anything drastic... but unfortunately they also don't say much at all (as is often the case with general assumptions).
    • Helipacter
      Helipacter
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2010 Posts: 474
      I've thought about this a lot since my last post. It would be interesting to see which hands vary from the PS assumptions in the examples/charts, and which are the same - but that is a lot of work, and it could be that there's not much variance at all.