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[Closed] 100 rush trp brl or not?

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peche025
Joined: 14.12.2008

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($60.20)
Button ($100)
SB ($147)
Hero (BB) ($122.45)
UTG ($106.65)
MP ($204.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
UTG bets $3.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) K, Q, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Hero raises $12.50, UTG calls $8.50

Turn: ($32.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $20.50, UTG calls $20.50

River: ($73.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Total pot: $73.50

Villian is a reg, no history 22/20 300 hands, I couldn't decide weather to fire the third barrel or not. I think regs should be deciding on the turn to call down if the river if safe but most regs aren't. I do think his range is quite strong I expect 2pr+ straight and sets, do you think he'll fold enough to shove?


4 replies
randomdonk
Joined: 02.08.2009

bet, he should be 3betting the flop with most of those hands u said.
buuuut flop c/r in this spot seems pretty terrible to me. just think of ranges and what would u do in his shoes.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I don't like the call preflop without any reads.
Even if he raises as loose as 17% of hands we're still only slightly ahead:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    46.16%  43.18%   2.98% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
MP3    53.84%  50.85%   2.98% { AQo }

But we'll have to play OOP postflop so the opponent has an inherent advantage that I believe can not be compensated by our small equity-advantage.

Especially w/o history I like to 3bet this preflop to get some history going and create an aggressive image.

As played I agree that on this flop there's not much sense in checkraising.
There are only few hands that we're behind of that will fold at some point, mostly AK and AA.
Against all other hands we're so far ahead that we don't really need to worry about protection.
So a c/c on the flop is my preferred play as well.

Once you do checkraise and bet the turn I think you should shove the river.
It's hard to tell what his range looks like, he certainly has sets and even AJ in there that were too afraid of the flush to shove flop or turn, but imo he should be able to fold those because it's hard to imagine we'd ever play anything worse like this - there aren't many A :club:x hands in his range so he should not expect us to be bluffing with a busted FD too often (at least that's what I would see and think in his shoes, ofc you never know if he has the same thought process, maybe he just sees "busted FD" without thinking about ranges too much.


Bierbaer - would you only call pockets there?
What would you call against known reg with solid stats in blinds? Is it even profitable to call pockets? Or just play 3b/fold?


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd also 3bet-or-fold those unless he's very tight.
If he's not tight (let's say less than 12%-15% openingrange UTG) his range is too wide to call for setvalue and you can definitely not outplay him postflop with an underpair because you don't have potequity to back your bluffs up.
Ofc on some boards you can make some +EV moves but I think overall it's not possible to play +EV with the call pre.