[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH JJ allin preflop 44 bb

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.56)
      BB ($21.96)
      UTG ($4.40)
      Hero ($10)
      CO ($17.14)
      BTN ($18.56)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:club:

      UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.40, UTG raises to $4.40 (AI), Hero calls $3.90, fold

      UTG - 36/13/3, 3bet 6.3 (when played the it ębet was ~10), 49 hands

      BB - 18/13/2.4 , 3bet 5, 408 hands

      If I assume that BB will fold, I need 44% equity. Against 6.3 I have 56% equity, so against 10% it will be even more.

      But the problem - his PFR is small, so his 3bet value might be very unaccurate over this sample. And also his 3bet size is huge. But he is not going to play 3bet/fold with this stack, so he goes allin himself and he does not have post flop skills, so he maybe even goes allin with 77+ just not to play post flop.

      In conclusion I think I should fold my JJ and wait till the sample size will be bigger, or I will have some notes. I have not invested too much yet. If his PFR would be big, then we could assume he is maniac and call with JJ.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Limp/Shove from a fishy player is often times a very strong move. Therefore without seeing him picking such lines I might even prefer just fold it. But of course while he ain't even a full stack your play ain't wrong.

      Best regards.