Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($12.56)
BB ($21.96)
UTG ($4.40)
Hero ($10)
CO ($17.14)
BTN ($18.56)
Dealt to Hero J♦ J♣
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.40, UTG raises to $4.40 (AI), Hero calls $3.90, fold
UTG - 36/13/3, 3bet 6.3 (when played the it ębet was ~10), 49 hands
BB - 18/13/2.4 , 3bet 5, 408 hands
If I assume that BB will fold, I need 44% equity. Against 6.3 I have 56% equity, so against 10% it will be even more.
But the problem - his PFR is small, so his 3bet value might be very unaccurate over this sample. And also his 3bet size is huge. But he is not going to play 3bet/fold with this stack, so he goes allin himself and he does not have post flop skills, so he maybe even goes allin with 77+ just not to play post flop.
In conclusion I think I should fold my JJ and wait till the sample size will be bigger, or I will have some notes. I have not invested too much yet. If his PFR would be big, then we could assume he is maniac and call with JJ.
