[Closed] Something about variance.

nice article!

I don't like ps's brm. Off course early on playing 30-50 BI is fine, but my BRM is:

Move up with 110 buy ins for the next limit. Move down with only 100 BI on the current limit. This way, I always have at least 150-200 Buy ins for each limit. I wouldn't like to go broke, and I play with minimized risk, since the money is good on every limit I played till now.

wow cool charts. so how do i find out my ROI? (i assume its pretty low ♦ ) after how many games will i be able to get a gauge?

about 1000 :P.

ROI is your total profit divided by the total amount you've bought in for..

so if you've got 200$ profit over 50 games of $10+$1 sitngos, this is 200 divided by 550$, or 36.4% ROI

ohh! thanks for the info. now only gotta play 800 more games to find out. i think i'll be happy not to bust out before then. hehehe ♦

if you follow proper BRM i'd say you don't need to worry about that!

my ROI is 18% after 1000 games and I have 100 buy ins for the limit I play whats my chances of going broke?

also need to know when you start moving down.

if you move down at 50buy-ins (100 buy-ins for the limit before), i'd say it's very very close to 0

nice graphs!!!

made some money with cash-games but somehow im playin 45er sitngos for now... started with 1.1$ on Stars for about 30% ROI... cashed out a lot in the past...

kept my winnings of the last weeks to play for higher limits... and i also prefere a more secure BRM than Pokerstrategy... maybe its ok for 1table-sitngos but i think it is more possible to get broke at mtt`s....

i used to move up to a higher level with 80-100 BI and switched back when i felt im wrong at this level (happened twice from 6.5$ BI to 3.25$)

now im playin 6.5$ (10%ROI) and 12$ BI (75% ROI not this many games played)

what is a good ROI for 45er sitngos???

is there any fishy smell left at 27$ BI 45er sitngos????

big up

lx

Originally posted by chenny8888
about 1000 :P.

ROI is your total profit divided by the total amount you've bought in for..

so if you've got 200$ profit over 50 games of $10+$1 sitngos, this is 200 divided by 550$, or 36.4% ROI

I find there is something wrong with this sentence, you bought in for a total of $550 but your total profit is $200. Doesn't this mean you are behind by $350? Or is there something I don't know. sorry noob here

Profit=winnings-buy-ins
200=750-550

ROI is return on investment, you invested 550 and got 750 back making 200 on your original investment of 550 so your return on investment is 200/550*100=36.4%

What is a good average of a beginner for ROI? I'm sure anything positive but what is usually considered doing decent?

depends on stakes. at the $1 Im sure +15% is easily attainable for a good player. 10% is decent

Does the ROI already include the rake? Is it just money you have after 1000 games minus money you had before?

I'm asking, because the rake in the 1$ games is 20%, in the 2$ games it's 10% (cake poker).Imagine no poker bonusses and a ROI of 10% in the 1$ snG's, does it mean that a ROI without rake would be 30%? Accordingly, in a 2$ game with only 10% rake it's 20%effective ROI, making the money per time earned twice as high because of the higher ROI, and another 2 times as high because of the higher stakes?

And when playing with a 33% rakeback(i.e 13% rake in the 1$ games, 6% in the 2 $ games), the ROI would still be 6% higher in the 2$ games?

That would mean: If you would use 50$ to play the 2$ games, the ROI might increase a lot, so the "only" reason to stay in the lower limit is the BR management(a 20% lower chance to go broke)?

And another question:-)
according to the charts, with 50 BI chances to go broke are about 20% for a "decent" player. I think it is quite a lot, especially because I don't know whether I'm decent or not^^ Is it even a good idea to use the starting capital to build up a bankroll in SnG's, or should i play something different with less variance, and come back when my money increased enough to stand the variance in SnG's? My bankroll decreased to half the amount recently, meaning the chances to go broke should lie around 40% now, even if i had 10% ROI....

Originally posted by farbwenz
Does the ROI already include the rake?

Yes, Return on Investment, your investment includes the rake.

Experiencing my first downswing:

I have had near enough 10 consecutive non cashes in 1.20 sng's on stars, at this rate I'll be broke in no time.

Is this normal, I'm trying to follow the strategy listed to the letter.

Interesting observations. This is why I stopped playing normal speed double or nothing. The rake is so high it's pointless, it takes a major part of your earnings.

Originally posted by farbwenz
Does the ROI already include the rake? Is it just money you have after 1000 games minus money you had before?

I'm asking, because the rake in the 1$ games is 20%, in the 2$ games it's 10% (cake poker).Imagine no poker bonusses and a ROI of 10% in the 1$ snG's, does it mean that a ROI without rake would be 30%? Accordingly, in a 2$ game with only 10% rake it's 20%effective ROI, making the money per time earned twice as high because of the higher ROI, and another 2 times as high because of the higher stakes?

And when playing with a 33% rakeback(i.e 13% rake in the 1$ games, 6% in the 2 $ games), the ROI would still be 6% higher in the 2$ games?

That would mean: If you would use 50$ to play the 2$ games, the ROI might increase a lot, so the "only" reason to stay in the lower limit is the BR management(a 20% lower chance to go broke)?

And another question:-)
according to the charts, with 50 BI chances to go broke are about 20% for a "decent" player. I think it is quite a lot, especially because I don't know whether I'm decent or not^^ Is it even a good idea to use the starting capital to build up a bankroll in SnG's, or should i play something different with less variance, and come back when my money increased enough to stand the variance in SnG's? My bankroll decreased to half the amount recently, meaning the chances to go broke should lie around 40% now, even if i had 10% ROI....

hey Unam, tnx for this post but now that i learned what ROI is and i searched on sharkscope what my averege ROI is, its just 2%, is it that horrible, what should normal ROI for decent sng player??? tnx

Hi, I can't see the images.
Anyone can upload on imageshack?

Thx!

The chart images are gone, pls fix this! I want to see them.
yy