[Closed] 33$s&g video by theNose (sick)

there's a crucial difference between the two hands. In your 93o hand the shorty is already allin. In nose's example the small stack isn't. So you should have more fold equity in nose's hand than in yours. Although I wouldn't push as hero with Q2o because there are so many donks in the 33's who don't know when to fold a hand. And imo the small stack isn't small enough to make such a play profitable.
If nose had reads on villain as a good regular, the push might be ok.

'so many donks in the 33s'? O_O

The higher buyin doesn't put them off? :/ I thought the lower limits were bad enough.

So you should have more fold equity in nose's hand than in yours.

yeah, but the raise basically tells me he doesnt have FE, because a regular (or at least, someone with more then 2 braincells, would've pushed preflop, or fold maybe. So we did have a good read on this one. But anyway, I just dont like the hand on the donkeylimit, just wanted to share with you.

there's a crucial difference between the two hands. In your 93o hand the shorty is already allin.

true.

Originally posted by shakin65
there's a crucial difference between the two hands. In your 93o hand the shorty is already allin. In nose's example the small stack isn't. So you should have more fold equity in nose's hand than in yours. Although I wouldn't push as hero with Q2o because there are so many donks in the 33's who don't know when to fold a hand. And imo the small stack isn't small enough to make such a play profitable.
If nose had reads on villain as a good regular, the push might be ok.

imo, it's a bit of a bad answer, since if we do some math, we can say:

How much folding equity do we need to make it a correct move:

93o: 10-30% (depends on his calling range)
Q2o: ehm about 80-90%?? I mean, you expect him to fold, because he HAS to fold, but this push, the FE barely covers the misclick-calls. if he calls, were quite a lot behind, and were out of a tourney where we had a (pretty much) guaranteed 2nd place, plus a HU edge, because we are better then the partydonk that will reach HU in that tourney.

So it might be different, but I wouldn't say it's so important. As long as my fish doesn't call ATC, then I made the correct move, and as long as your fish calls you 30% of the time, you play ------------ev$ there

If nose had reads on villain as a good regular, the push might be ok.

Well, we know with 100% certainty that he is not a good regular, because a good regular would've pushed into thenose, and let him make a decision for his tournament life.

I think it's not important what a correct move would be by the villain. In this case sklansky is definitely wrong with his "we make small mistakes, and play in such a way, that our opponent makes many big mistakes". We want him to make a mistake, but not this one! Because this mistake, made by mr. fishyfish in sb, is -ev$ for thenose. However, I think we can expect him to make this mistake, because he doesn't have a brain.

Big Leak? ♦

Originally posted by helemaalnicks
imo, it's a bit of a bad answer, since if we do some math, ...:
Q2o: ehm about 80-90%??

To do some math you need to know (or estimate, but based on what?) villains raising range in the Q2 hand and his range he would call noses push with. An extrem example would be: Villain raises with top 7% and calls a push with it. So you wouldn't have any fold equity.
In noses hand you can assume that villain raises preflop something like 25% and calls a push with 6% (88+, AQo, AJs). So villain would call noses push in ~25%, when he's holding top 6%. In 25% nose will be 24/76 underdog. In 75% nose wins the pot with his push.

EV (fold) = 0,3082 (30,82% expected proportion at the prize pool with his stack of 6600$)

EV (push) = (0,75 * 0,3483) + [0,25 * [(0,76 * 0,091) + (0,24 * 0,4267)]]
EV (push) = 0,2612 + [0,25 * (0,0691 + 0,1024)]
EV (push) = 0,2612 + 0,0428
EV (push) = 0,304 (30,4% expected proportion at the prize pool)

Conclusion: Given the assumptions above about villains raising and calling range the push isn't + EV compared with the EV (fold).

But obviously we don't know villains raising range. So math isn't always the appropriate tool to find hero's best line. And that's why I didn't do any maths in my first response.

The difference between yours and this hand was shown to you by Shakin I think, so I will say what I think about this hand here.

I would fold my Q2 here, because we don't know the other player very well and a call will cost us a lot of money.
But if we had 1k more stack I would shove, if we had a suited connector, any pair, most Aces, face cards and so on...

Because we have a ton of FE here.