Girah

I love it. Its like a mathematical proof of making decision on every street

(didn't read the 2p2 discussion)
Hand 1 is only good if villain is very disciplined and knows you're solid imo. I guess it's fine cus we don't have any bluffs in our range at all if we don't turn a hand like this into one. Just hope he's capable of folding QQ+. On nl200 i'd fold

And hand 2 I'd be very keen on bluffing like this as the villain cus our percieved range is so weak while his range includes all the flushes and some straights. But really no way anyone can say to call or fold without knowing villain

hand 1(QQ) :
Villain could have a very large bluffing range here considering he double flushdraw on the turn he has many missed draws. Also he could have bet the turn without any equity planning to barrel almost every river.
This is a river he will most certainly bluff with his whole air range because it's a scare card for us.

Villain could in theory also be valuebetting worse hands, although I dont know many hands that get to the river like that.
The problem for me is that I have no idea what villain thinking about our range here.
For me this is never a snapcall (I might fold even) but I can believe you that a call is +EV here.

hand 2 (99)
Wow I dont get this hand at all, considering you reads I doubt villain is bluffing here often, and I'm not so sure he's folding to a raise with our spewy/creative image.
Are we repping 8s full? thats a really smart part of our range.
Also villain could easily have trips/straight or a boat.
And he's not folding that imo.
I would fold.

The intro was a bit loud/annoying, but who cares - great content afterwards. I really liked your methodical, systematic approach to explaining these hands in detail and would like you to make a lot more vids in a similar fashion

It would be great if you could expand a bit on what your actual ranges are in the spots discussed. One example: while discussing your riverplay with 99, you made a point about only being able to bluff here with hands like 77, which doesn't account for many combinations. How do you play 33, 55, 45s and AhJh, AhTh? I'd assume you get to the river with these as well (they all have better equity against Villains turnbettingrange than 77), so you could get to the river with a wider bluffingrange theoretically.
I'd also be interested to know how your flopplay would be overall vs Villain in the QQ hand. QQ is a great hand to bluffcatch, because you block so many valuebetting combinations (you mention this) - does this mean you would play a set of 3s differently against described villain (if you somehow happen to 3bet it, which doesn't seem to be the best of ideas)? Do you plan on check/deciding 3 streets with hands like AQ here as well (or AA if you wouldn't 3bet AQ)?

Great video, keep up the good work

please dont make any more videos. its just to good

I'd like to ask: if the highest stake ive ever played is NL200 (and im not even a reg. on that stake, im a reg at NL100-50), how could I try to think as a NL10k player?. Or it isn't thaaat much different?

Anyway my thoughts on one hand, ill post later the other:

99 hand: Preflop the guy has a wide range because of the fish limping. On that flop, he knows hero almost never hit the nuts and he can think about multi barrelling with bluffs and for value with almost all overpairs, I'm not sure if he would vbet A-high. About bluffs, he might try to bluff against another type of player but if he sees hero as a spewy player and he is a tight straight-forward one, I'm not that sure about him triple barreling much with bluffs on such a dry board. So his cbet for me means all pocket pairs, ofc 6x (A6, 76, 65), and Ax sometimes. I dont think he'd cbet K high or worse.

On the turn, i dont think he is going to c/f that 4 ever. He'd have given up on the flop if he was going to c/f, so the bet is kinda expected. With the nuts 44,22,6X (which is a tiny % of his range) I think he could prob. try a c/r and expect hero to do a move with a lot of hands. Even though im not so sure if the bet could also induce something from hero. He could also c/c with some of his weakest pairs-overpairs (33,55,77) but i don't think he would be comfortable playing oop with those hands losing initiave. So his turn range is almost the same that on the flop.

On the river, I think he can c/c some weak hands with showdown value, but also vbet thin. Being more than 200bbs deep, he should in theory fold anything that is not the nuts against a shove. And the nuts are only full houses which are too hard to have. I'm not so sure about trips, would he call a shove with hands like 76 or 65?. I think if he sees you as a creative-spewy player he should call a shove with those.

I gave him this range of triple barreling 22+, A6, 76, 65, AQ+ (not sure about AK,AQ,33,55,77)

Using the equilab with that range, he has the nuts (full house 4of a kind) only 8.7% of the time. About 20% of the time he has trips, and about 70% of the time 2pair and ace high.

If my math didnt fail :P, you are risking on the river 14.5k to win a 25.5k pot, so the river shove needs to work more than 56% of the time. If he calls with trips or better every time your play is EV+ (he'd fold 70% of the time)

Even if he doesnt have any A high on his range, but only 22+,6x, he has 60% of the time 2pair, 30% trips and 10% nuts, so ur shove would also be theoretically EV+ (he'd fold 60% of the time)

Even if the analysis makes the river shove EV+ im not sure if id do that move on the tables. What if one makes a mistake about his range and he wouldnt triple barrell some overpairs (wouldn't he c/c some overpairs on the river?), but only the nuts?. It would be a pretty big 144bb mistake

Volrath89 very cool analysis

I'm a 50nl player and I enjoyed the vid a lot.

My problem is I feel like there is no way I can think in this much depth during an actual hand.

How did you train yourself to incorporate this way of thought into your game? "Just try to do it" has not been working for me.

Good example of "better less but good" principle, could never imagine video consisting of 2 hand analyisis will be so interesting and useful.

First off, i just wanted to say brilliant 1st video. Been watching coaching/poker videos for years and i must say this video is top quality.

2nd hand: If QQ is ur 2nd strongest hand on this river given action from a game theory perspective, wouldnt it make sense for him to overbet with his straights as well, i dont see why his value range only consist of flushes here.

1st hand: I think the river maths is alittle off/confusing but it doesnt affect the results at all.

Preflop effective stack was $22258. Minus Preflop/flop/turn bet is 22258-450-750-1850=19208 effective stack on river. Which means you are risking 19208 to win 11100. Fold equity needed = 19208/(19208+11100) = 63%

That was rly a very good vid with much effort inside - thx a lot:)
Questions @ the 99-hand:
1.) Was there any reasoning for it why you haven`t just clicked the all in Button on the river, but have made it only a little larger then it would need to put Villain All in?

2.) I obv. think that your riverline is very legit b/c indeed you have hardly air in your range (or weaker hand in your range which you could bluff).

I am only not sure if you have been a little too optimistic about his prefloprange?
The think is, even if he is more on the TAG-side, he will probably widen significantly his isoRaisingrange IP vs. a fish while being with the fish deep.
I am also not sure if he would rly 3barellbluff here random OCs.
So i have given him with AK only 12 combos which shall represent all random OCs in his riverbettingrange (AhKh doe not count here as the NutFD).

You need about 63,5% FEQ and this would be my range-suggestion:

his B/Callrange would be Trips+:
99, 88, 66, 44, 22, A6s/o, K6s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 64s

his B/F-range would be:
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AdKh, AdKc, AdKs, AsKh, AsKc, AsKd

As you can see it is even with my more pessimistic assumptions already pretty close and maybe he does not isoraise so often a hand like A6o and even could fold in Non-0% TripsNK-hands, so that it should be vs. many opponents +ev.

Calling is also regards to my range-assumptions out of question^^

A Hand 2 (QQ):
First. You said that you had a reason to 3bet so deep smaller than usual - I am just curious - what have been the reason ? Or have you maybe forgotten it and you can only remeber that you had one?

postflop:
When there is a good strong hand to take it pretty often into you C/Calldownrange, then it is obv. the Topset here.
I would play this hand honestly in the majority of the time exactly the same.
I would here almost never rly consider to C/R the turn b/c I think in such a spot Villains 3barellrange is much wider vs. our perceived range than his B/Call or B/Stack off_Range.

One thing i wanna to add: Actually flopzilla does consider the cardremovaleffect considering your Holecards.

Btw. I do not rly like Villain`s overbet on the river.
Reason: Overbetting is in theory a nice sizeing-tool that also allows you to include more bluffcombos into your bettingrange.
But on this rivercard he should not have the need to overbet as a bluff and also should not have too many bluffcombos in his range (if he barells somewhat reasonable) b/c the rivercard obv. improves his perceived barellingrange.

In such cases (when a card improves your bettingrange significantly), I think it is better for your whole range to bet a normal amount in Villain`s shoes - also in regard to his thinner valuehands b/c the C/Caller obv. cannnot bluffcatch so light anymore...
Hm, although given your read - when he likes to bluff in a higher Freq. with hardly EQ in certain spot (like for example vs. perceived weaker and mostly capped, potcontroled ranges), then it could indeed make some more sense for him to use even in such spots overbets and not only on blanks - not too sure about that, tbh.

btw.,
do you post in general a lot HHs on 2+2 or was this only for the vid?
I have read many comments regards to these 2 hands and most comments there are pretty lol tbh.
If i would post there regularly I would probabl get pretty soon too angry^^

Anyways,
as said, great 1st vid and keep on the very good work:)

Originally posted by IronPumper

his B/Callrange would be Trips+:
99, 88, 66, 44, 22, A6s/o, K6s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 64s

Very detail analysis/reply. Always nice to read how others break down the hand in this manner.

Just curious on your opinion, wouldnt 64s (or the weaker 6x hands) and AA/KK be the same in hand strength given we wont ever raise for value with worst? I mean, what is our perceive range for betting this river? I would think unless you have some crazy dynamic going on, it would be either the nuts/or nutted hands which are fullhouses/A6s or exactly what he have, a made hand that turns into a bluff. And i think 6x that isnt a FH and big overpairs does the same % wise vs that range, maybe K6s as an exception, but i feel 64/65/76 are the same as AA/KK here.

And on another note about QQ hand, if he does overbet river as part of his strategy, do u think he would include all straights as well? or only flushes?

Last question (OOT): How is the program combonator? Looks interesting. Worth the buy vs flopzilla/ stoxEV?

Originally posted by TiltedDonk

Originally posted by IronPumper

his B/Callrange would be Trips+:
99, 88, 66, 44, 22, A6s/o, K6s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 64s

Very detail analysis/reply. Always nice to read how others break down the hand in this manner.

Just curious on your opinion, wouldnt 64s (or the weaker 6x hands) and AA/KK be the same in hand strength given we wont ever raise for value with worst? I mean, what is our perceive range for betting this river? I would think unless you have some crazy dynamic going on, it would be either the nuts/or nutted hands which are fullhouses/A6s or exactly what he have, a made hand that turns into a bluff. And i think 6x that isnt a FH and big overpairs does the same % wise vs that range, maybe K6s as an exception, but i feel 64/65/76 are the same as AA/KK here.

Yes sure, TripsNK are from the relative handstrength the same like AA/KK, just a bluffcatcher.
But when you wanna to have a certain % of bluffcatchers in your range, you can just B/Call with the "Top of your Bluffcatcherrange" to set up your wished frequency.Alternatively you also could for example just use any other randomizer for your blufcatcher-hands (like a clock) - but I find it easier to estimate it with the mentioned way

And on another note about QQ hand, if he does overbet river as part of his strategy, do u think he would include all straights as well? or only flushes?

This depends on how much air he wanna bluff:If he overbets here this amount, then he can bluff in theory to play optimally ~37% of his range.The more bluffcombos he wanna add with this size, the thinner he of course should also val.bet using this size.In practice it should be no problem here to val.bet here his str8s b/c in Hero`s perceived range are hardly flushes - but Villain anyways does not have too many str8-combos here...

Last question (OOT): How is the program combonator? Looks interesting. Worth the buy vs flopzilla/ stoxEV?

stoxEV can of course do all the same things like combinator and much more.But for some quick range-consideration combonator might work better b/c it is a quicker procedure.I also use flopzilla, but only when I don`t need to consider certain suits (flopzilla is not able to only take for example AhKh in someone`s range instead of AKs).I think the combonator is an useful tool and also pretty cheap with a solid support.check out the homepage, if wished: http://combonator.com/

Very nice,

What I do find a bit odd, in the last hand, you do c/c, but you say he has 15 flush combo's, but this is almost the best hand you can have (The queens), and I think very very few players would actualy overbet the river with flushes, just because they expect you to be pretty weak to the board, and THEY just think you're gonna fold sooo much. Now it's certainly a possibility that he is a very good player who would actually overbet to rep so much bluffs, I certainly think he would think about it longer than 3 seconds, if he has a bluff he probably thought that this was the perfect bluff card, but to have a flush like 98dd he would probably think for like 6/7 seconds before he would think of to overbet the river to rep his bluffs and make you call light. (still assuming he's a very good player, which he might not even be, and wouldn't overbet the river with 98dd at all)

I have got a question about the hands. How do you convert the ranges you give to the villain to possible combo's. I can imagine you can't have analysis software always running next to the open tables. I really think this kind of math is very very usefull during hands I only don't know how to master it and what shortcuts to take. Really hope you can help me with this

Or is it kinda naturally developt while playing and studying alot?

Great vid btw ♦

Originally posted by RicoW
I have got a question about the hands. How do you convert the ranges you give to the villain to possible combo's. I can imagine you can't have analysis software always running next to the open tables. I really think this kind of math is very very usefull during hands I only don't know how to master it and what shortcuts to take. Really hope you can help me with this

Or is it kinda naturally developt while playing and studying alot?

Great vid btw ♦

When you will analyze spot X off-game pretty often, you will at some point remeber some analysis-outcome and that will help you to make more often in game the correct decision.

Your intuition will become also better regards to special spots.
Intuition is btw. no esoteric-bullshit, but basically just a function of memories.
-> which can help.

he guys, whoever is waiting for an answer: girah -as a poker celebrity- is busy atm with improving his game, coachings and accomodating press requests + it is summer in portugal - please have a little patience with him.

Originally posted by SvenBe
he guys, whoever is waiting for an answer: girah -as a poker celebrity- is busy atm with improving his game, coachings and accomodating press requests + it is summer in portugal - please have a little patience with him.

no problem and thx for the update^^