[NL2-NL10] NL5 88, top set, mono board

    • koosMaras
      koosMaras
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 440
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.91)
      BB ($2.54)
      UTG ($2)
      UTG+1 ($5.04)
      UTG+2 ($7.68)
      MP1 ($2.51)
      Hero ($6.81)
      BTN ($6.57)

      Dealt to Hero 8:heart: 8:spade:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.05, MP1 calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, SB calls $0.28, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($1) 4:diamond: 7:diamond: 8:diamond:

      SB checks, UTG+2 bets $0.95, Hero calls $0.95, SB folds

      TURN ($2.90) 4:diamond: 7:diamond: 8:diamond: J:heart:

      UTG+2 bets $2.76, Hero calls $2.76

      RIVER ($8.42) 4:diamond: 7:diamond: 8:diamond: J:heart: T:diamond:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

      Opponent is 35/8/semi-aggressive postflop. Hands: 40.
      How played: I think it's bad, it was tilting call down.
      Now a fold on the turn looks good as played, but why not to raise flop? Lots of combos in his l/c preflop, donk flop range: 56s, KdXd, QdXd, AdXd, T9s, 44, 77. Actually, I'm not sure how to play this hand. UTG donks in MW pot, mono board, I have no reads on him so far. Against a range that I gave him, it's a flip. Maybe I should just raise/go broke here?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello koosMaras,

      Would also say that it's actually in those spots pretty much a flip if we are getting it in here. On such a board and according his limp/Call play it's way too strong for him to bet almost pot size on flop with very weak hand. It's even more likely that he has a hand here rather than not. Doubt that he even would bet with just FD here almost pot size.

      For given those reasons I guess I'd decide right on flop what I am gonna do against the opponent. Either I am raising and most likely planning to go broke. Or either way if I am calling then I guess we have to consider folding it on turn since we don't get the implied odds for a Call for our FH if we rather put him on a made hand.

      But obvious myself I guess I'd just raise it on flop and get it in:

      Board: 4:diamond: 7:diamond: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+2  47.80%  46.98%   0.82% { 77, 44, 87s, 65s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Kd7d, Qd7d, Jd7d, Td7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, Ad5d, Kd5d, Qd5d, Ad4d, Kd4d, Ad3d, Kd3d, Ad2d, 65o, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad6c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad4c }
      CO     52.20%  51.39%   0.82% { 8h8s }

      Still should do pretty great against some wider made hand range. Might even sometimes add some worse hands into his range. Like even 47.

      Best regards.