[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH AK top2 value rirejz on river?

    • wnbMG
      wnbMG
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      16/14/6.5
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($11.90)
      BB ($9.96)
      UTG ($11.05)
      CO ($14.67)
      BTN ($11.32)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: K:club:

      UTG raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) 8:club: A:club: 7:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

      TURN ($2) 8:club: A:club: 7:heart: J:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

      RIVER ($4.60) 8:club: A:club: 7:heart: J:heart: K:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $2.60, Hero raises to $5.20, UTG calls $2.60

      UTG shows A:spade: J:diamond:
      (Pre 25%, Flop 13.3%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero shows A:diamond: K:club:
      (Pre 75%, Flop 86.7%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero wins $14
  • 11 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello wnbMG,

      It's pretty close on turn. :( The problem is that we ain't gonna do very good in there. While I expect him to Check behind most of his draws and continue with made hands. For example against some reasonable range:

      Board: 8:club: A:club: 7:heart:  J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    62.32%  53.27%   9.06% { AA, JJ, 88-77, ATs+, AJo+ }
      UTG+1  37.68%  28.62%   9.06% { AdKc }

      You see you ain't doing very good, even behind. Plus we will be playing OOP. I might even sometimes make a crying fold while the only hand we might beat is something like AQ at the best maybe ATs if he even does have such a opening range while he seems to be pretty nitty.

      Of course we could remove the 77/88, although we would be still behind.

      As played if you decided even to raise it then just Check/Shove or either way just Check/Call it while it's pretty thin spot:

      Board: 8:club: A:club: 7:heart:  J:heart:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    46.67%  40.00%   6.67% { AA, JJ, 88-77, ATs+, AJo+ }
      UTG+1  53.33%  46.67%   6.67% { AdKc }

      Best regards.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      his Af is 6.5 don't you think he would bet bigger on turn whit all his sets myby 2pairs too, since board is very wet ? 65% kind of weak ?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sausage646
      his Af is 6.5 don't you think he would bet bigger on turn whit all his sets myby 2pairs too, since board is very wet ? 65% kind of weak ?
      Well as long I don't have any info about sample size, CBet flop/turn it's hard to say. It could as well mean that he is doing that with even with draw. But would he? If he just gets free card why didn't he take it.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello wnbMG,

      It's pretty close on turn. :( The problem is that we ain't gonna do very good in there. While I expect him to Check behind most of his draws and continue with made hands. For example against some reasonable range:

      Board: 8:club: A:club: 7:heart:  J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    62.32%  53.27%   9.06% { AA, JJ, 88-77, ATs+, AJo+ }
      UTG+1  37.68%  28.62%   9.06% { AdKc }

      You see you ain't doing very good, even behind. Plus we will be playing OOP. I might even sometimes make a crying fold while the only hand we might beat is something like AQ at the best maybe ATs if he even does have such a opening range while he seems to be pretty nitty.

      Of course we could remove the 77/88, although we would be still behind.

      As played if you decided even to raise it then just Check/Shove or either way just Check/Call it while it's pretty thin spot:

      Board: 8:club: A:club: 7:heart:  J:heart:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    46.67%  40.00%   6.67% { AA, JJ, 88-77, ATs+, AJo+ }
      UTG+1  53.33%  46.67%   6.67% { AdKc }

      Best regards.
      Yes but he'll have Ax much often than sets, the equity assumes there is an equal chance of him having a set than a pair.

      Wouldn't it be ok to c/c turn and c/f river on a blank?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, if you are going to Check/Call the turn then you should as well Check/Call the river. Since you pretty much beat the same range on turn which you Calling against him.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      yh but he probably would bet the turn whit ATs+ AJo+ but check back blank river since all draws busted , And he would probably value bet strong 2pair + ?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sausage646
      yh but he probably would bet the turn whit ATs+ AJo+ but check back blank river since all draws busted , And he would probably value bet strong 2pair + ?
      Yeah, well we can't even be sure if the guy does open something like AT from UTG. His overall PFR is pretty small, which could mean that from UTG it might be even a lot smaller. But I doubt that the guy is Checking behind the turn which I wouldn't do either. We rather bet it for protection and free showdown, plus of course AT has extra equity with GS on turn.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by veriz
      We rather bet it for protection and free showdown, plus of course AT has extra equity with GS on turn.
      what ? So check call flop , bet turn?
      If that so, He will most likely fold ATs and call whit AJo+ AJs+ and than we beat only AQ...

      I think his range is most likely ATs+ AJo+ just because of weak bet, but still we should cc turn because he would bet ATs+AJo+ for protection...

      even if he don't have ATs in his range... /on turn/
      AJs+, AJo+ 46,591%
      AdKc 53,409%
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I was talking about villain, not Hero. :) As you were talking in your previous post.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      So on the end your plan is call flop, check fold turn even if his bet is 65% ?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sausage646
      So on the end your plan is call flop, check fold turn even if his bet is 65% ?
      Well, if I do expect the opponent to 2nd barrel with draws then I'd Check/Call against him. If not then I am pretty easily just Check/Folding the turn to avoid us having trouble on river and having to hero-call again. Since doesn't make sense to Call the turn and then lay-down on river.