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[Closed] NL100: AQ / gutshot on the flop

2 Posts
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098799
Joined: 23.07.2007

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;MP3$102.15:969/30/6/0.3/25/33/9/45;Hero$20:///////;[/tg]
0.50/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A♠, Q♦
Hero raises to $4.00, 4 folds, MP3 calls $4.00, 4 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 3♠, 2♣, 5♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP3 raises to $27.00, Hero raises to $16.00 (All-In).

Turn: ($52.50) Q♣
River: ($52.50) 3♥

Final Pot: $52.50

MP3 liked to call many hands. On the flop I had A gutshot and two clean overs - thought so. And still he's raising, so he may have low pocket pair - yet an overpair at the moment. Probably if I wanted to call it was better to just push flop, but still I had decent odds on calling and with that many outs I was assuming myself on the lead.

Please, critisize my reasoning ;).

Edit: Oh, by the way, while looking at my hands after a session I often find some funny things like raising AQo from utg. Wrong. Fold preflop. I know.

Position_Stack:
hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;
MP3$102.15:969/30/6/0.3/25/33/9/45;
Hero$20:///////;


1 reply
xylere
Joined: 28.05.2007

you need 36% equity to call here. you can call profitable only against 77-99, and broadway suited cards. Other hands beat you (quite a big part of his range) 22-66, A2-A5 and some other possible combos

So even your gutshot outs are not always clean...
I would fold here.