What's more important while 3betting, history or stats?

    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
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      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      I've been wondering a long time about this. We're in NL SH.

      I'm an avid 3better on the BU, I 3bet with a polarised range, meaning with my monsters QQ+ AK and my bluffs 78s A2s etc.

      Let's say we're in this situation: CO is a tight reg who opens quite a bit from the CO, folds a lot against 3bets (+85%) and 4bets unusually tight. So I'd 3bet the guy with a bunch of air and quickly get away if he 4bets me since it's most of the time KK+ AK, sometimes QQ. I call with all my hands that are in front of his range (any PP to JJ, QJs+, ATo+) except for my monsters.

      Let's say I've 3betted him 3 or 4 times over like 50 hands and he always folded. When I get QQ for instance I always wonder what's my best move. Should I think he knows that I'm 3bet bluffing a lot and expecting him to make a move right about now or do I think he's a robot that will fold again to my 3bet. Of course I will just call if it's the latter, or 3bet if I think he's going to make a move, but it's still an uncertain spot.

      So my question is: would you guys keep 3betting the guy and shove against his 4bet with QQ expecting him to make a move, would you guys 3bet/fold or just call in these situations? So overall question what's more important history or stats?
  • 7 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      What's his 4bet range? If he folds 85% to 3bets you should probably 3bet all bluffs and call everything else.

      No point in 3betting anything "for value" if you don't get any value from it.

      Depends what range he 4bets or calls but when he folds 85% it usually means he stacks off smth like KK+ or AK, QQ+ if he's seen you extremely (and I mean extremely) loose with 3betting him.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
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      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      What's his 4bet range? If he folds 85% to 3bets you should probably 3bet all bluffs and call everything else.

      No point in 3betting anything "for value" if you don't get any value from it.

      Depends what range he 4bets or calls but when he folds 85% it usually means he stacks off smth like KK+ or AK, QQ+ if he's seen you extremely (and I mean extremely) loose with 3betting him.
      Yes, but after the history he should probably widen his 4betrange to like AJs TT+ right? SO then it becomes profitable again to 3bet with QQ instead of calling. I don't think any reg will call a 3bet a lot OOP, but if he does with even a wider range, say KJs+ 88+ it becomes even more profitable.

      But then again there's the argument that he could as well not be thinking about all this and still just shove his AK KK+ which makes my 3bet with QQ very unprofitable.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      But then again there's the argument that he could as well not be thinking about all this and still just shove his AK KK+ which makes my 3bet with QQ very unprofitable.
      Bingo! It's your job to find out how he thinks and counter it.

      @Calling 3bets OOP: Definitely doable if you know what range your opponent does it with.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
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      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      But then again there's the argument that he could as well not be thinking about all this and still just shove his AK KK+ which makes my 3bet with QQ very unprofitable.
      Bingo! It's your job to find out how he thinks and counter it.

      @Calling 3bets OOP: Definitely doable if you know what range your opponent does it with.
      Ok thanks, could you elaborate on the calling 3bets OOP?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      But then again there's the argument that he could as well not be thinking about all this and still just shove his AK KK+ which makes my 3bet with QQ very unprofitable.
      Bingo! It's your job to find out how he thinks and counter it.

      @Calling 3bets OOP: Definitely doable if you know what range your opponent does it with.
      Ok thanks, could you elaborate on the calling 3bets OOP?
      If you know someone's 3betting range you know what boards you can play back on or what hands you can get good value with. Usually, if someone if polarised between air and QQ+, AK you can call OOP with a decent number of hands. The thing is you also need to know what his air looks like (suited connectors, suited high cards, suited Axs, raggy Ax, etc.). You would choose a range that will make him the second best hand a lot when he hits. If he has lots of low Ax hands, you can defend OOP with good aces, if he 3bets K7s, Q7s type hands you can add hands like KQs, KJs, QJs to defend.

      However, if you start calling 3bets OOP it's probably good to flat some of your premiums to have an uncapped range postflop. Uncapped range means you can have premiums. If you always 4bet them, you can never rep them postflop, but your opponent can. This could give him an advantage without him even knowing it. Apart from that, you could get some nice value when he can't fold K9 on K22r.

      That said, you can still find a good 4bet/fold strategy if you can't play well OOP in big pots but it's all relative to opponent and exploiting him.

      LE: If he is depolarised, it's harder to call OOP imo, because he 3bets only strong hands. Then you can make an argument for calling with suited connectors and pairs if you have reasonably deep stacks. The pairs for implied odds and the connectors for SOME implied odds but mostly to push him off marginal hands with equity.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Originally posted by Letsdothisish
      But then again there's the argument that he could as well not be thinking about all this and still just shove his AK KK+ which makes my 3bet with QQ very unprofitable.
      Bingo! It's your job to find out how he thinks and counter it.

      @Calling 3bets OOP: Definitely doable if you know what range your opponent does it with.
      Ok thanks, could you elaborate on the calling 3bets OOP?
      If you know someone's 3betting range you know what boards you can play back on or what hands you can get good value with. Usually, if someone if polarised between air and QQ+, AK you can call OOP with a decent number of hands. The thing is you also need to know what his air looks like (suited connectors, suited high cards, suited Axs, raggy Ax, etc.). You would choose a range that will make him the second best hand a lot when he hits. If he has lots of low Ax hands, you can defend OOP with good aces, if he 3bets K7s, Q7s type hands you can add hands like KQs, KJs, QJs to defend.

      However, if you start calling 3bets OOP it's probably good to flat some of your premiums to have an uncapped range postflop. Uncapped range means you can have premiums. If you always 4bet them, you can never rep them postflop, but your opponent can. This could give him an advantage without him even knowing it. Apart from that, you could get some nice value when he can't fold K9 on K22r.

      That said, you can still find a good 4bet/fold strategy if you can't play well OOP in big pots but it's all relative to opponent and exploiting him.

      LE: If he is depolarised, it's harder to call OOP imo, because he 3bets only strong hands. Then you can make an argument for calling with suited connectors and pairs if you have reasonably deep stacks. The pairs for implied odds and the connectors for SOME implied odds but mostly to push him off marginal hands with equity.
      Very interesting, thanks a lot for your advice! I always heard it's not that profitable to call 3bets OOP, so I mostly 4bet with QQ+ AK and my bluffs Ax Kx if he really 3bets a lot. If I had KJs for instance in the CO I would fold knowing that he 3bet bluffs a lot and I'm ahead of his range, but because it's so hard to play OOP. But I'm going to try this out so I'm not that exploitable (even though my fold to 3bet% is around 65%).
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      1. If you fold or 4bet he is right to 3bet a polarized range vs you.
      2. People that 3bet a polarized range are uncomfortable playing 3bet pots postflop because they expect 4bet/fold dynamics. This I can tell you from experience. Back when I had no idea of why I actually 3bet,whenever someone called, I was lost, even IP... :(

      LE: What I said is only my opinion so it doesn't mean it will just work for you. You should try it out, think about how your opponents react and their ranges, maybe do some equilating and figure out yourself what's best for you given what you know. :)