[NL2-NL10] JTs FD + Pair oop - Turn play

    • XandreW36
      XandreW36
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1698059
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (CO): $16.68 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 3.1, Hands: 129107
      BTN: $18.85 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 2.2, Hands: 49
      SB: $6.24 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 25, 3B: 9, AF: 3.5, Hands: 18712
      BB: $11.13 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 2.6, Hands: 359
      UTG: $31.17 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.4, Hands: 1725

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is CO with J :spade: T :spade:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.48, BTN calls $0.48, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.20) K :spade: 6 :spade: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $2.17, Hero calls $1.37

      Turn: ($5.54) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $3.52, Hero calls $3.52

      River: ($12.58) Q :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $12.68, Hero folds

      My thought process was: On Turn we need between 25-30% equity for BE call and we should be there with our pair & fd + we might have some implied odds on R if we hit. And I don't think we have much fold equity against this player. But yeah, were oop and reverse implied odds might be high also?

      His estimated range on turn w/o bluffs?:

      Board: K:spade: 7:heart: 6:spade:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    35.45%  35.45%   0.00% { JsTs }
      MP3    64.55%  64.55%   0.00% { 77-66, KQs, K7s-K6s, 98s, 54s, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, KQo, 98o }
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello XandreW36,

      We can never be sure what kind of outs are even clean for us here. Therefore it's rather a standard Check/Fold on the turn I would say. The pair doesn't give us much add-on for the equity. You can't be even sure if you hit your 2pair/trips out either you are ahead or not.

      Best Regards.