[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 AA overpair vs turn donk when flush hits

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      UTG: $21.24 (42.5 bb)
      MP: $46.80 (93.6 bb)
      CO: $124.36 (248.7 bb)
      BTN: $20 (40 bb)
      SB: $49.12 (98.2 bb)
      Hero (BB): $50.75 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:diamond: A:heart:
      4 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.50

      Flop: ($9) 4:spade: K:club: 3:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB calls $7.50

      Turn: ($24) 5:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $12.50, Hero raises to $38.75 and is all-in, SB calls $24.62

      River: ($98.24) 2:heart: (2 players, 1 is all-in)


      I don't really see why villain would donk his flushes on the turn. I think this play makes sense with 2pair/sets/pair+draw/Kx. Since many most 2 pair combos and sets would likely x/r flop I think he is going to have a good percent of the time a hand worse than mine.
  • 5 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      No stats?

      Vs unknown I am not sure about call turn or fold turn. I mean, such a move - call oop and lead next street - is very strong inmy experience... Without any stats I'd call the turn and fold to a riverbet.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Nah, I wouldn't exclude flushes from his range there. He just tries to get full stack from you and avoid you Checking behind the turn. :) So unless he is super loose I wouldn't be shipping the turn but rather keeping his range wide and also bluffs in the pot and just Call and reevaluate the river.

      Best Regards.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      No stats but expected villain to be quite a weak player since he is not full stacked.

      If I call turn I end up facing a half pot size on the river which I would prolly call on any non :club: one. If this is my plan I see raising turn a little better since I make my opponent pay with all the draws he would just x/f on the river.

      Would you play river any different?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp
      No stats but expected villain to be quite a weak player since he is not full stacked.

      If I call turn I end up facing a half pot size on the river which I would prolly call on any non :club: one. If this is my plan I see raising turn a little better since I make my opponent pay with all the draws he would just x/f on the river.

      Would you play river any different?
      Well, I wouldn't say so. I doubt that the guy would even ship the river with total air. Would you really assuming him just overplaying Kx like that? Therefore I'd even plan to fold it on the river > calling without any information.

      I would assume the guy Checks almost all his weaker hands, missed draws and maybe even Kx.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      ^^ Yeah, makes more sense now.