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[NL2-NL10] NL2 AJo Top Pair, Shove?

    • diablik7
      Joined: 11.06.2008 Posts: 709
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (BB): $2.00
      UTG: $0.77
      UTG+1: $3.89
      MP: $2.41
      MP+1: $1.52
      CO: $1.44
      BTN: $0.73
      SB: $2.98

      SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A:spade: J:heart:

      fold, fold, MP calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.09, MP calls $0.07, SB calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.27, 3 players) 5:heart: 6:club: 8:spade:
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, MP calls $0.20, fold

      Turn: ($0.67, 2 players) A:club:
      Hero bets $0.40, MP calls $0.40

      River: ($1.47, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero bets $1.31 and is all-in


      32 hands
      VPIP 28 (9/32)
      Fold to flop bet 80 (4/5)

      no info

      My evaluation:

      Preflop: rather standard play, I think. I should have raise to 6 BB, though.

      Flop: I decided to contibet because I guessed that SB won't call me without a strong draw or made hand (which would make my decision later easy - check/fold). I think that MP could call with any pair and even gutshots.

      I put them both on the same range for simplicity:
      AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T9o
      AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s

      Should I c-bet here or not?
      Does the board qualify as "draw heavy"?

      I guess it is draw heavy so probably my fault. I'm still not sure what will be the calling range of average (unknown) players on these stakes.

      Turn: Nice card on turn. 1 opponent left. The problem is that I'm OOP. According to Equilab 20% of his range beats me. The rest are lower pairs and straight draws (20%).

      So I think my goal here should be value and protection. If I got a raise here I should fold.

      I bet. I think that most of the opponents will fold lower pairs here but they like drawing. He will fold 40% of his range here. On the river I'm scared of straights.

      What should I do if there is 4, 7 or 9 on the river?
      I would make a small bet (25 - 30% of the pot) and fold to raise.

      I'm not scared of flush draws.

      My equity on turn:

      Stół: 5:heart: 8:spade: 6:club: A:club:
      Equity Wygrana Podział
      MP1 29.93% 29.93% 0.00% { TT-99, 77, 44, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, 97s, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AcJc, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JsTs, JcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, Ac9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Ad8d, Ah8h, Ac8c, Td8d, Th8h, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9c8c, Ad7d, Ah7h, Ac7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, Ad6d, Ah6h, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 6d5d, 6s5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ac4c, 5d4d, 5s4s, 5c4c, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ah2h, Ac2c, T9o }
      BB 70.07% 70.07% 0.00% { AsJh }


      Stół: 5:heart: 8:spade: 6:club: A:club: K:club:
      Equity Wygrana Podział
      MP1 49.12% 49.12% 0.00% { 99, 77, TdTc, ThTc, TsTc, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, 97s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, AhTh, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ad8d, Ah8h, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ad7d, Ah7h, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, Ad6d, Ah6h, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, 6d5d, 6s5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, 5c4c, Ah3h, Ah2h }
      BB 50.88% 50.88% 0.00% { AsJh }

      What should I do?
      Is my range estimation good?

      If I push and he calls only with the winning hands it should be about breakeven.
      49% * 1,41$ - 51% * 1,31$ = 0,02$

      It's the worst case scenario though - I assume he knows my hand. In reality he would fold some better hands or call with some worse hands.

      High variance, low profit, anyway. Is there a better option?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello diablik7,

      Welcome to the English NL Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      About the hand while being in multiway pot I don't really see any reason to CB without having a made hand. I'd just Check/Fold it right away and leave the pot alone. But otherwise if you decide to CB then not much to comment, we are planning to Bet on turn & river ourselves. The only question is how much to Bet and how to get maximum value. If you think he is still capable of hero-calling with so many worse hands then sure ship it. But you must understand also that mainly Ax hands are going to Call you. :)

      Best Regards.