[NL2-NL10] NL10SH AQo

    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      €0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
      iPoker
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG (€10.40) 104bb
      CO (€10) 100bb
      sirilidion (BTN) (€29.31) 293bb
      SB (€15.65) 157bb
      BB (€10.15) 102bb

      Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 5 players) sirilidion is BTN A:diamond: Q:club:
      2 folds, sirilidion raises to €0.30, SB calls €0.25, BB calls €0.20

      Flop: 5:club: Q:diamond: 9:diamond: (€0.90, 3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, sirilidion bets €0.67, SB raises to €2.18, BB folds, sirilidion goes all-in €29.01, SB goes all-in €13.17

      Turn: 6:heart: (€45.26, 2 players, 2 all-in)

      River: 2:spade: (€45.26, 2 players, 2 all-in)

      SB: hands 102 VPIP: 27 PFR: 20 AF: 2.5
  • 20 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello sirilidion,

      Nah, don't like it. You are also deep, pretty standard to Bet/Fold it. And shoving is very bad. From what do you get called which is worse?

      Best Regards.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      Didn't expect that answer. I did thought the shove might be overplayed since looking back at it I thought that am likely to own myself against better hands and probably he fold anything better. but bet/folding? he can easily have something like a worse K,JT of diamond or JT without diamonds and playing those aggressive.

      if you bet/fold top pair top kicker as standard play it seems to me that any aggressive players that is also deepstacked can just can call preflop with any2 and c/r you on any flop since you won't continue with 2 pair or better any way. If you are folding AQ to a raise because your deepstacked wouldn't it be better then just to c behind and play the hand for pot control?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sirilidion
      Didn't expect that answer. I did thought the shove might be overplayed since looking back at it I thought that am likely to own myself against better hands and probably he fold anything better. but bet/folding? he can easily have something like a worse K,JT of diamond or JT without diamonds and playing those aggressive.

      if you bet/fold top pair top kicker as standard play it seems to me that any aggressive players that is also deepstacked can just can call preflop with any2 and c/r you on any flop since you won't continue with 2 pair or better any way. If you are folding AQ to a raise because your deepstacked wouldn't it be better then just to c behind and play the hand for pot control?
      That's another leak of yours. :) Leveling and thinking that every aggressive player has always draws/very weak hands there. Or either watching wrong videos which give you wrong thoughts of understanding the game. If you are talking about balancing then on NL10 you don't need that, just cause you fold there TP nobody will recognize.

      No we can't Check behind there, we have to protect our hand and we have decent equity overall. After the raise we have to reevaluate our hand and the strength. Usually it's weak while the guy also raises in multiway pot. Definitely losing tons of money in those spots.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      I don't think he has always draws. I just think his range consist out of more then just sets when he reraises. For example here he had JdTd which by the advise you give you probably wouldn't have even put in his c/r range. Hands like QT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JT, JdTd, 55, 99, 5d4d, 5d6d, 5d7d and perhaps even JT seem to make sense to me the way he played it and where still ahead of most of that range. So I don't really see why we shouldn't at least bet/call and reevaluate the turn.

      P.S. what other leaks are you talking about?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sirilidion
      I don't think he has always draws. I just think his range consist out of more then just sets when he reraises. For example here he had JdTd which by the advise you give you probably wouldn't have even put in his c/r range. Hands like QT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JT, JdTd, 55, 99, 5d4d, 5d6d, 5d7d and perhaps even JT seem to make sense to me the way he played it and where still ahead of most of that range. So I don't really see why we shouldn't at least bet/call and reevaluate the turn.

      P.S. what other leaks are you talking about?
      Why wouldn't I put J:dT into his range? His hand is even ahead vs your TP there. Try to put it into equilab first. You just got lucky, super lucky. Should have said that the worst hand you going to see there is going to be a FD+SD or whatsoever hand. Anything else will have you hardly beat.

      Please post me his range which calls you with the equilab link. I am just curious.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      JdTd it is more like a coinflip with 52.63 % and with the dead money already in the pot that isn't that bad. Think he probably would call at least all pairs+ flushdraws, JdTd, all sets, 2 pair and when I pushed I thoughed he would call KQ and maybe QJ although I hardly doubt that now. Also what I didn't forget to say he can ofcourse also semi-bluff all other flushdraws (he probably will be folding the flushdraw + gutshot but will make a calcuation for that too) would be folding those and the JT (not diamond) against an shove.

      JdTd vs AQ

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 52.63% 52.63% 0.00% { JdTd }
      MP3 47.37% 47.37% 0.00% { AdQc }

      0.4737 * € 16.62 = € 7.87
      0.5263 * € 14.68 = -€ 7.73

      So in this case we still win € 0.14 on average

      Which is this range:

      99,55,AQs,KQs,QTs+,KdJd,KdTd,JdTd,Td8d,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,7d5d,6d5d,5d4d,AQo,KQo,QTo+,JTo which is 7.39%

      When he is folding the flushdraws + gutshot, QT and JT his range is: 6.56%

      4.75/7.39 * 100 % = 64.28 %. So he is folding 35.82 % of the time we shove

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 39.72% 30.47% 9.25% { 99, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, JdTd, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AQo, KQo, QJo }
      MP3 60.28% 51.03% 9.25% { AdQc }

      0.6428 * 0.6028(€ 15.65 + € 0.3 + € 0.67 = € 16.62) = € 6.44
      0.6428 * 0.3972 * € 14.68= - 3.75
      0.3582 * (€0.9+ €2.18 + €0.67 = €3.75) = € 1.34

      so in the longrun we make € 4.03 on average

      More likely that he is folding KQ,QJ and then ofcourse the shove is looking less nice.

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 65.09% 47.19% 17.90% { 99, 55, AQs, JdTd, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AQo }
      MP3 34.91% 17.02% 17.90% { AdQc }

      2.41/7.39 * 100%= 32.61 %. So in this case he is folding 67.39 % of hands

      0.3261 * 0.3491 * € 16.62 = € 1.89
      0.3261 * 0.6509 * € 14.68 = - € 3.11
      0.6739 * € 3.75 = € 2.10= € 2.53

      Soin the longrun we win € 1.31 on average

      If he is also folding TPTK

      1.21/7.39 * 100 % = 16.37 % so he would be folding 83.63 % of hands

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 75.50% 75.50% 0.00% { 99, 55, JdTd, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d }
      MP3 24.50% 24.50% 0.00% { AdQc }

      0.1637 * 0.2450 * € 16.62 = € 0.67
      0.1637 * 0.7550 * € 14.68 = - € 1.81
      0.8363 * € 3.75 = € 3.14

      So in the longrun we win € 2 on average


      If he is calling also with all flushdraw+ gutshot but folding QT,QJ,KQ,JT
      2.87/7.39 * 100 = 38.83 %. So he folds 61.17 % of his raising range on this flop

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 59.62% 46.59% 13.03% { 99, 55, AQs, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AQo }
      MP3 40.38% 27.36% 13.03% { AdQc }

      0.3883 * 0.4038 * € 16.62 = € 2.61
      0.3883 * 0.5962 * € 14.68 = - € 3.40
      0.6117 * € 3.75 = € 2.29

      So in the longrun we win € 2.29 on average

      The same as last but he is also foding AQ

      1.66/7.39 *100 = 22.46. So he is folding 77.54 of his raising range

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qd9d5c
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 64.06% 64.06% 0.00% { 99, 55, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d }
      MP3 35.94% 35.94% 0.00% { AdQc }


      0.2246 * 0.3594 *€ 16.62 = € 1.34
      0.2246 * 0.6406 * € 14.68 = - €2.05
      0.7784 * € 3.75 = € 2.92

      so in this case so win € 2.21 on average
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      None of the ranges are realistic there. Why should a guy with 150bb deep call you down with all the FDs there? You don't even need that much calculations to prove anything here. Not to talk about hands like QJ/KQ? Would you EVER yourself Call with them?

      If we exclude the rake for break-even we would need ~48% equity which you will never-ever even get in that case unless the guy is some retarded maniac. :D Which obviously from the few stats you posted he isn't. So definitely a ------EV shove. Even with most of the ranges you even don't get the equity which means -EV.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      well your asuming he is good. Which is unlikely because then he would have likely just squeezed the JTs :) . don't think him going broke with a pair+ flushdraw,set is that unrealistic and a lot of players might not even fold a flushdraw let alone a flushdraw with a gutshot. Still ofcourse the calculations are depends on the range he is raising here.

      'Would you ever call yourself here' No, but I would probably sqeeuze with JTs pre against a loose openraise from the button ^^. I just put that calculation is because I made that assumption when I was pushing in the spot which looking back probably isn't likely. asuming the ranges what you would do to what your opponent don't seem to be the best way to go about things imo. I rather go about it what I think is most likely he would do and what for ranges he is likely to have in this spot. But flatting pre with suited connecters, suited onegappers, pairs doesn't seem like a stretch and there enough opponents that would flat some of the weak broadways. Still don't see why that wouldn't be in his range. If he had a Q he would want to protect so the c/r makes sense with a hand like QT,QJ,KQ,AQ. if he has JT not diamonds it isn't a great draw but he could turn it in to a semi bluff as I would have to fold if I didn't have a Q and even if I called he still has outs to make a straight. The flushdraws+ pairs or + open ended straightdraw just speak for themselves and ofcourse if he has a set he still want to protect against draws.

      He might not c/r JTo or he might just play the gutshots+ flushdraws passive. Still how he played the JdTd I think it is likely that he would have played the flushdraws+ pairs the same way and even if he is only getting it in with flushdraws+pair, sets, JdTd. The calculations at least show how that even in the worse case the push isn't that - EV even with the rake and when he is calling looser is even becoming + EV. I think that would be my 3rd calculation ( not counting the calculation JdTd vs AQ on that flop) where I have € 2 in the longrun well the rake here is only €2 so that would make it pretty neutral EV none of the calculations seem to be -----EV like you are saying even if you subtracked the € 2 of rake from them

      Still I think I would have rather gone for a bet/call. As I keep a lot of his (semi-) bluffing range in and I can then make evaluate the turn

      But maybe I misunderstand you. Do you mean his 3 betting range isn't realistic or do you think his range for calling the shove isn't realistic. Could you please be a bit more specific and tell me what ranges you think are realisic and why my ranges aren't realistic?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      well your asuming he is good. Which is unlikely because then he would have likely just squeezed the JTs. don't think him going broke with a pair+ flushdraw,set is that unrealistic and a lot of players might not even fold a flushdraw let alone a flushdraw with a gutshot. Still ofcourse the calculations are depends on the range he is raising here.

      So you assume that a good player always has to squeeze there? :) How do you rate a good player? So in that cause I would be a bad player for you if I wouldn't squeeze?

      Pair? No, he doesn't Call it vs your shove.
      FD? No, he doesn't get the odds and would be a maniac to Call you.
      So what's left? Only strong hands which have you hardly beat. To stop your argument, I will just point a strong range which he could have:

      Board: 5:club: Q:diamond: 9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    86.90%  86.85%   0.06% { 99, 55, Q9s, JdTd }
      UTG+1  13.10%  13.04%   0.06% { AdQc }

      so this is never-ever a profitable go-broke spot. Especially shoving like that.

      But flatting pre with suited connecters, suited onegappers, pairs doesn't seem like a stretch and there enough opponents that would flat some of the weak broadways.

      Why would you assume the opponent plays exactly like you? This is even kinda bad to assume that. Even I would for specific reason flat there a lot of those hands which you mentioned, included JTs. Both way is possible to play them. To be a good player you don't have to be 3betting or folding them only. That you only know this play doesn't mean it's not more profitable to flat there even.

      He might not c/r JTo or he might just play the gutshots+ flushdraws passive. Still how he played the JdTd I think it is likely that he would have played the flushdraws+ pairs the same way and even if he is only getting it in with flushdraws+pair, sets, JdTd. The calculations at least show how that even in the worse case the push isn't that - EV even with the rake and when he is calling looser is even becoming + EV. I think that would be my 3rd calculation ( not counting the calculation JdTd vs AQ on that flop) where I have € 2 in the longrun well the rake here is only €2 so that would make it pretty neutral EV none of the calculations seem to be -----EV like you are saying even if you subtracked the € 2 of rake from them

      Well, if you even exclude from his range JTo then how you can ever consider go broke there? Even if he has such a range as you pointed, maybe some FD+GS/pair+FD:

      Board: 5:club: Q:diamond: 9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    79.70%  79.65%   0.05% { 99, 55, Q9s, KdJd, JdTd, 6d5d }
      UTG+1  20.30%  20.26%   0.05% { AdQc }

      Still equity the worst ever you could even imagine here. Not to talk about when people sometimes not even 3bet with QQ and he could have that in his range? What happens? The equity goes even more down.

      Still I think I would have rather gone for a bet/call. As I keep a lot of his (semi-) bluffing range in and I can then make evaluate the turn

      At last you get the point, Bet/Calling is the only option you could ever consider to play here. Bet/Shove is one of the worst and never going to be profitable. With Bet/Calling at least you also have backdoor FD. (Which although means we have to exclude nut-FD from his range)

      But maybe I misunderstand you. Do you mean his 3 betting range isn't realistic or do you think his range for calling the shove isn't realistic. Could you please be a bit more specific and tell me what ranges you think are realisic and why my ranges aren't realistic?

      Just look above, I can tell for sure that you will never-ever play this kind of play profitable. Just that you got lucky here isn't long run.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      So you assume that a good player always has to squeeze there? smile How do you rate a good player? So in that cause I would be a bad player for you if I wouldn't squeeze?


      Ok, you don't have to squeeze :p. I would do against an aggrasive openraiser from the button :p. Think you will take it down a ton and you can always adjust if they start 4 betting you light ^^. With do get decent odds for the call but you basicly his playing fit-or-fold oop without initiave which usely doesn't lead for the best pay-out with a drawing kind of hand like JTs against regs imo.

      Well, if you even exclude from his range JTo then how you can ever consider go broke there?


      I don't see any consideration in your calculations with fold equity. If you gone over the calculation why many of the ranges where so close was because he has to fold such a big part of his reraising range. So unless you think he is reraising tighter then the range I gave him and even if I include QQ ,and Q9s he still has a reraising range of QQ,99,55,Q9s,AQs,KQs,JTo,QTs+,KdJd,KdTd,JdTd,Td8d,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,7d5d,6d5d,5d4d,AQo,KQo,QTo+,JTo ( 7.92 %) he is only continuing Q9s,QQ,99,55 (1.66 %)

      1.66/7.92 * 100 = 20.96 so in this case he would be folding 79.04

      0.2096 * 0.0827 * € 16.62 = € 0.29
      0.2096* 0.9173 * € 14.68 = - € 2.82
      0.7904 * €3.75 = € 2.96

      even in this worse case scenario we win € 0.43

      The point things that I noticed through the calculations how much equity still comes from FE. Although ofcourse my equity will drop how smaller his c/r range is.

      At last you get the point, Bet/Calling is the only option you could ever consider to play here. Bet/Shove is one of the worst and never going to be profitable. With Bet/Calling at least you also have backdoor FD. (Which although means we have to exclude nut-FD from his range)


      the reason why I think the shove if so bad even if we were to assume I am correct about his reraising range is all the hands that he is folding I am ahead of and all the hands that have me beat are folding. That is why I myself think bet/calling is the best line since I am ahead of his range. With bet/folding I think we are often just folding the best hand, while only sometimes he has us beat
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Do you have any other questions? I commented already my view. :)
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      If you have nothing more to add on my last post. I think we pretty much gone over everything then.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,303
      I don't like the shove.

      I like a bet/fold on the flop here.

      Average check/raising range at the micro-stakes is extremely different from average check-raising range at higher stakes. The average micro-stakes opponent is never check-raising a draw and rarely raising a TPTK. His range will be heavily weighted towards 2pair/sets. You also have to factor in that the SB is check/raising with the BB still to act behind which strengthens his range. (If he had a draw he should seriously consider flatting to let the BB overcall)



      Originally posted by sirilidion

      if you bet/fold top pair top kicker as standard play it seems to me that any aggressive players that is also deepstacked can just can call preflop with any2 and c/r you on any flop since you won't continue with 2 pair or better any way.
      Yes, you are correct. That's because more often than not you will be exploiting that opponent by folding to their check-raise at micro-stakes. You will be hero-folding TPTK when they have 2pair+. This is good poker.

      On the rare occasion you find an aggressive micro-stakes opponent who is check-raising wildly you can adjust your strategy accordingly. Vs unknown you should assume they are heavily weighted towards value.
    • NatRPheM
      NatRPheM
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 391
      I have a hard time seeing him show up with 9s here with the preflop action going the way it did.

      Also I think it's almost insane to go for a b/f on this flop against somebody I by this post have zero information on. b/c should be standard... people don't play the pure value poker line at 5/10c so with no reads there is absolutely no way I would b/f flop here. I would probably go into c/c mode unless board gets nasty. Can't see how you can ever even think of b/f this flop without specific information on the villain. Seeing as this is a raised pot preflop don't you think his range for C/R here can be a lot of random Q's? If it was a 3bet pot preflop ill agree you COULD consider b/f but I still think it's too weak against unknowns.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,303
      Originally posted by NatRPheM
      If it was a 3bet pot preflop ill agree you COULD consider b/f but I still think it's too weak against unknowns.
      You should obviously be folding LESS in a 3bet pot due to the lower SPR.

      I don't see why you think he can't have 99s. The majority of micro-stakes players don't value 3bet 99.

      Given he's an unknown you should assume he has the range that 85% of micro-stakes players have in this spot. Strong value and no draws.

      Flatting is the next best option over folding. The problem is the dramatic reverse implieds you have being deep-stacked. It'd be better to have a draw than TPTK.

      Btw, the majority of players won't fold TPTK here. It's an excellent spot to make a tight fold at the micros and really crush the games though.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      Given he's an unknown you should assume he has the range that 85% of micro-stakes players have in this spot. Strong value and no draws.


      but is isn't an unknown he has stats of : hands 102 VPIP: 27 PFR: 20 AF: 2.5

      that I posted in my first post making which are stats that a lot of the regs have and I see a reg easily capable making a lot of semi-bluffs in this spot as well as c/r for value
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,303
      c/r flop stat? (Not including this c/r ofc)

      Most of the microstakes "regs" don't c/r light either. His VPIP/PFR don't really prove much at all.

      If I was playing $5/$10, I would obviously not bet/fold on the flop. I think the stacks are still a bit deep to just 3bet jam though.

      Btw, I think it's important to acknolwedge that the BB is still left to act, because it's very likely to weight the c/r range of the SB towards made value hands.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      @ w34z3l: if you want to know his raise c-bet stat is 40 (5)
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,303
      Originally posted by sirilidion
      @ w34z3l: if you want to know his raise c-bet stat is 40 (5)
      Hmm, wanted to know c/r flop stat. Either way looks like the sample is inconclusive. I'm guessing raise cbet was 1/4 at the time of the hand.

      If you were going to continue with the hand I don't see why you'd not either flat or 3bet smaller. It would suck if he folded his draws/bluffs and only continued with his value range to your jam.

      I'd still give him the standard micro-stakes super strong check-raising range, especially with the BB still to act, and make the fold. Continuing with the hand is also made tougher by the deeper stacks and your reverse implied odds with a TPTK hand.
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