[Closed] How to Calculate Your Odds of Winning in Percentages

Originally posted by Optroot
If you want it exactly it's:
%Win = 46*Outs/C(47,2)*100% = 2*Outs/47*100 = 200*Outs/47

%win =1- [(47-no. of outs)/47]*[(46- no. of outs)/46]

eg. 15 outs ->54% (The "rule of 4" tends to slightly overestimate your win% if you got a lotta outs.

%win =1- [(47-no. of outs)/47]*[(46- no. of outs)/46]

eg. 15 outs ->54% (The "rule of 4" tends to slightly overestimate your win% if you got a lotta outs.

Your right but multiplying by four is easier ;).

If you want the exact formula you can use your equation that simplifies to:

%win=Outs*(93-Outs)/21.62

(too complecated to do quickly)

In order to make the numbers easier you need to ignore the Outs^2 (too hard to do in your head) and round the numbers to 100 and 25, but then you'll wind up with the same formula. So, if you stilll want to keep it easy you can do:

4*Outs - Outs^2/20
which is about 3.75*Outs

But you're absolutely right as your outs get larger the Outs^2 gets larger and larger so we can't ignore them...

So unfortunately it works up until about 9 outs,

here is the table of values:

Outs | Multiply to get %
1 | 4.26
2 | 4.21
3 | 4.16
4 | 4.12
5 | 4.07
6 | 4.02
7 | 3.98
8 | 3.93
9 | 3.89
10 | 3.84
11 | 3.80
12 | 3.75
13 | 3.70
14 | 3.65
15 | 3.61

etc.

So, unfortunately if you have more than 10 outs the easiest thing I can think of now is to multiply by 3.75, or just use the original formula.