[Closed] PLO$25 Fold/call-AI on flop 40 BB's deep

With that much of preflop action, you pretty much need a solid drawing hand. Straight draw with a flush draw; and obviously, if you have a 6. IT's a multiway pot though, and the fish has no real drawing hand (JJ and Q high flush draw?), so the call is bad. Never the mind that UTG+1 could have something like 8765, or even Hero.

What I think happened here, is that the UTG put you on aces. On the flop, he figured his flush draw might be live (AA hands tend to be just that, AA) and his jacks gave him few set outs. But even then, with 10 outs, that is a loose call, unless he was absolutelly positive that there was a clear chance Hero didn't have aces, but a broadway hand/medium pair and was just bluffing (which is rather unlikely on such flop for anyone else than purebred maniacs).

If I were in UTG's place, I'd call with wraps+flushdraw hands, or with any six, if I felt like gambling. But with UTG+1's existence in the pot though, I'd probably fold any hand that didn't have a six.

UTG's call is fine, because hero is so short. He knows Hero could also do this with AAxx no hearts so... Meanwhile, UTG+1 needs a very strong draw (read: wrap OR nut flush draw) to continue.

Even if Hero did do it with bare aces (a completely justifiable position), the call is still marginal. With 10 outs being the most profitable case (hero has no hearts), and 2 being the worst case (hero has the nut flush draw, or K high flushdraw), I think that in average, UTG is in fact drawing to 8-7 outs, making the call marginal (he is being offered 2:1 odds, which translates to 33%, unless I'm mistaken, and hero needs 8 outs to break even).

The probability that hero has one heart is very large. 1/4 for each card, in fact. That reduces UTG's outs to 9. The probability that at least two cards are hearts, is 1/4 * 1/4. That's 1/16. The probability that there are three hearts, is 1/64. So that gives us about 21/64, or 32 percent chance that UTG doesn't have a perfect draw when considering whether hero has his outs or not. This doesn't take in the consideration of the special case, that UTG is drawing to two outs, but we can assume that diminishes UTG's probabilities further. If hero has the 6 (very possible for bare aces hands), he also has killed few of UTG's outs.

That's why I suggest avoiding making calls in that spot with over pair and a weak flushdraw, unless you either have a wrap to go with, a six, or the nut flush draw.

If someone has something to complain about the maths, feel free to do so.

Originally posted by Jim9137
Even if Hero did do it with bare aces (a completely justifiable position), the call is still marginal. With 10 outs being the most profitable case (hero has no hearts), and 2 being the worst case (hero has the nut flush draw, or K high flushdraw), I think that in average, UTG is in fact drawing to 8-7 outs, making the call marginal (he is being offered 2:1 odds, which translates to 33%, unless I'm mistaken, and hero needs 8 outs to break even).

The probability that hero has one heart is very large. 1/4 for each card, in fact. That reduces UTG's outs to 9. The probability that at least two cards are hearts, is 1/4 * 1/4. That's 1/16. The probability that there are three hearts, is 1/64. So that gives us about 21/64, or 32 percent chance that UTG doesn't have a perfect draw when considering whether hero has his outs or not. This doesn't take in the consideration of the special case, that UTG is drawing to two outs, but we can assume that diminishes UTG's probabilities further. If hero has the 6 (very possible for bare aces hands), he also has killed few of UTG's outs.

That's why I suggest avoiding making calls in that spot with over pair and a weak flushdraw, unless you either have a wrap to go with, a six, or the nut flush draw.

If someone has something to complain about the maths, feel free to do so.

Not too keen on the maths but the conclusion seems solid. Your(and that of others) considered input Jim is always appreciated. BTW, which games are you currently playing.

I used to play Omaha and O/8 PL25 in cash, actually, just until recently. Nowadays I'm focusing on SNG side of things. Those PLO heads-up SNGs are pretty damn sick, but relatively easy if you can withstand the variance. I mean, this guy was called a push with weak flush draw, on the turn. That's what we call a bona fide fish, and surprisingly typical.

To return to OT, I would in most cases fold the bare nut flush draw on that spot. It's really too weak to call on its own (8 outs at best).

actually you're right jim, i retract. if it's heads up, it's a marginal call, but second to act in a 3-way pot, it's a snapfold.

Originally posted by Jim9137
With that much of preflop action, you pretty much need a solid drawing hand. Straight draw with a flush draw; and obviously, if you have a 6. IT's a multiway pot though, and the fish has no real drawing hand (JJ and Q high flush draw?), so the call is bad. Never the mind that UTG+1 could have something like 8765, or even Hero.

What I think happened here, is that the UTG put you on aces. On the flop, he figured his flush draw might be live (AA hands tend to be just that, AA) and his jacks gave him few set outs. But even then, with 10 outs, that is a loose call, unless he was absolutelly positive that there was a clear chance Hero didn't have aces, but a broadway hand/medium pair and was just bluffing (which is rather unlikely on such flop for anyone else than purebred maniacs).

If I were in UTG's place, I'd call with wraps+flushdraw hands, or with any six, if I felt like gambling. But with UTG+1's existence in the pot though, I'd probably fold any hand that didn't have a six.

nothing more to add. the thing is that hero prob. won't cbet this flop with bare aces, so he almost has to have the nutdraw due to pre-action.