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NL100 Rush - Got donked into, made a baby flush, river pairs the board. Eeeeeeek!

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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Villain is 27/22, 11% 3bet, AFq 30% after 135 hands. It's a pretty small sample, and there doesn't seem to be anything particularly out of line in his stats.

Flop: I don't like folding my equity and I don't like just flatting, so I raise and expect him to fold quite often.

Turn: Now I'm very unsure. I can't fold, but I'm not very happy with my baby flush. Maybe I should just raise and commit myself. I don't expect him to be bluffing often here and he probably has a set quite often, but if he does, assuming he 3bets JJ preflop, he doesn't have a diamond. He could be semi-bluffing with a pair+fd, or ofc he could just have the better flush. I haven't counted combos, but I'm probably ahead.

River: Not a great river, although at least it's not the J :diamond: . I think he has too many boats and better flushes to call his river bet.

Help!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

jbpatzer (CO) ($109.55)
Button ($40.45)
SB ($128.80)
BB ($51.75)
UTG ($153.40)
MP ($125.80)

Preflop: jbpatzer is CO with 8♦, 6♦
2 folds, jbpatzer bets $2.50, 1 fold, SB calls $2, 1 fold

Flop: ($6) J♥, 4♦, K♦ (2 players)
SB bets $4, jbpatzer raises to $14, SB calls $10

Turn: ($34) 2♦ (2 players)
SB bets $24, jbpatzer calls $24

River: ($82) K♣ (2 players)
SB bets $88.30 (All-In), jbpatzer folds

Total pot: $82 | Rake: $3


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10 replies
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

in my recent and limited experience regs don't tend to donk/ fold. I would just call flop as then we can use position more effectively that way and maybe rep more straight draws and wrong the pot by bluffing on turn or river.

As played, I like turn and river. If river blanks I probably can't fold it.


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gadget51
Joined: 23.06.2008
Oldschool Grinder

I just can't see what villain would do this with that I beat, a bit sucky but a fold for me until I know more.
Blank river is easy game obv is obv, but I don't see much wrong with the play in my humblest opinion. Nh.


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jbpatzer Topic starter
jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by Tim64
in my recent and limited experience regs don't tend to donk/ fold. I would just call flop as then we can use position more effectively that way and maybe rep more straight draws and wrong the pot by bluffing on turn or river.

Well, if I really have no fold equity, it's ofc a bad raise on the flop.

How about this for a line of argument.

i) If he has a set, he's unlikely to call a raise OOP, so he probably has a flush draw.
ii) If he therefore has a flush on the turn, I can safely fold.
iii) When I call the turn, my hand looks mostly like a set, because raising probably just isolates me against flushes.
iv) If he has a flush, the river pairs the board and my hand now looks like a FH, so he won't jam. Therefore he doesn't have a flush either and must have a busted straight draw. Therefore I should call the river.

And thus do I level myself into spew, but fortunately, only after the fact. I guess it depends what level he's on, in particular whether he thinks my hand looks like a set on the turn.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

^^
Too many ifs, given imperfect reads on this villain. He can have QT and be repping the flush on the turn. Then he jams riv (even though a flush should be scared) cos he has air and hopes you can fold AK/KQ or your own missed str8 draw.

So, yes, you will be folding the best hand ocasionally OTR. But his value range has you so crushed given the action that I don't think that's a tragedy.

We also don't know whether he's even the type of guy who will even ship 88bb with pure air into a strongish range (you really shouldn't be folding much having called this turn). He might just ch/f his bluffs. If so, calling is a disaster.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008
BlackMember

Folding vs someone not capable of weird plays. U dont hav 30% equity on the river for sure.


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jbpatzer Topic starter
jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by Tim64
^^
Too many ifs, given imperfect reads on this villain. He can have QT and be repping the flush on the turn. Then he jams riv (even though a flush should be scared) cos he has air and hopes you can fold AK/KQ or your own missed str8 draw.

So, yes, you will be folding the best hand ocasionally OTR. But his value range has you so crushed given the action that I don't think that's a tragedy.

We also don't know whether he's even the type of guy who will even ship 88bb with pure air into a strongish range (you really shouldn't be folding much having called this turn). He might just ch/f his bluffs. If so, calling is a disaster.

^^ indeed. My tongue is out of my cheek now.


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jbpatzer Topic starter
jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by mbml
Folding vs someone not capable of weird plays. U dont hav 30% equity on the river for sure.

What about the flop raise and turn call?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008
BlackMember

Flop- i would dislike raising a better flush draw if its too weak to shove vs a 3bet like A5dd. But i am fine with raise/folding a baby flush draw bcos its not that strong in the first place.

Not folding turn for sure and never folding a blank non pairing river. Not thrilled abt it but you'll never know. It requires a really strong read to fold a flush here. And he has aggro general stats which could indicate that hes more likely to spazz than a nit.


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jbpatzer Topic starter
jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder
chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Originally posted by Tim64
in my recent and limited experience regs don't tend to donk/ fold. I would just call flop as then we can use position more effectively that way and maybe rep more straight draws and wrong the pot by bluffing on turn or river.

As played, I like turn and river. If river blanks I probably can't fold it.

THIS! Don't raise the turn please, we have only slightly stronger than a bluffcatcher here but he can have loads of bluffs!


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