[NL2-NL10] Ak

    • ThePirateSword
      ThePirateSword
      Global
      Joined: 08.07.2012 Posts: 541
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($29.85)
      BB ($11.56)
      UTG ($11.93)
      CO ($16.25)
      Hero ($11.03)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: K:heart:

      fold, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, CO calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.35) 7:diamond: A:diamond: 5:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO raises to $3.10, Hero raises to $10.43 (AI), CO calls $7.33

      TURN ($22.21) 7:diamond: A:diamond: 5:diamond: K:diamond:

      RIVER ($22.21) 7:diamond: A:diamond: 5:diamond: K:diamond: 4:spade:

      CO shows T:diamond: 9:diamond:
      (Pre 42%, Flop 97.2%, Turn 90.9%)

      Hero shows A:club: K:heart:
      (Pre 58%, Flop 2.8%, Turn 9.1%)

      CO wins $21.21

      20/16 very aggresive reg 25% raise cbet. i was thinking that he will be calling with flush draw
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Over what sample is that high raise cbet%?

      Preflop: Looks good, we can even make it a bit bigger with all of our 3-bet range.

      Flop: Villain is raising rather big so unless I've seen him raise/fold like this or raise/go with worse hands I am tempted to actually let my hand go.

      Let's look at some equities:

      I would say worse case scenario, based on preflop action and smaller open/3-bet, we could face a range like: 77,55,A7s,A5s,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,AhKd,AsKd,AcKd,AhQd,AsQd,AcQd,AhJd,AsJd,AcJd

      This range has about 83% equity versus our hand, so clearly not good.

      Now let's narrow that range down a bit, by taking out A7s, A5s, some flush combos and AJd:

      77,55,KdQd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,AhKd,AsKd,AcKd,AhQd,AsQd,AcQd

      No we only have 14% equity.

      So clearly he needs to be doing this with a LOT of garbage or Ax no draw for us to be profitable.

      Let's assume we add all AQ, then we go up to 35% but is it realistic to think he'd raise that big with AQ (no draw)?
    • ThePirateSword
      ThePirateSword
      Global
      Joined: 08.07.2012 Posts: 541
      ok but this player open range it's 16 and from the CO it's 20, and his fold to 3bet it's 66% so normaly can't have a wide range i was like OMG when i saw T9s ,so when i cbet and he raised so much i was thinking he have something JJ QQ AK with a spade AQ and that's it ,and in my head was that i have huge fold equity against this range.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by ThePirateSword
      ok but this player open range it's 16 and from the CO it's 20, and his fold to 3bet it's 66% so normaly can't have a wide range i was like OMG when i saw T9s ,so when i cbet and he raised so much i was thinking he have something JJ QQ AK with a spade AQ and that's it ,and in my head was that i have huge fold equity against this range.
      As mentioned above, considering that his open was just a min and your 3-bet wasn't larger I would give him a much wider range so T9s is not a surprise (to me).