[NL2-NL10] playing AK as a draw post flop

    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
      6 players
      Converter

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $3.92
      UTG+1: $4.63
      CO: $19.75
      Button: $12.56
      SB: $16.34
      Hero: $23.41

      Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with K:diamond: A:diamond:
      UTG calls, [color:#cc0000]UTG+1 raises to $0.45[/color], CO calls, 2 folds, [color:#cc0000]Hero raises to $1.6[/color], UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

      Flop: T:diamond: 6:heart: 2:club: ($4.95, 3 players)
      Hero checks, [color:#cc0000]UTG+1 is all-in $3.03[/color], CO calls, Hero calls.

      Turn: K:heart: ($14.04, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $14.04)
      Hero checks, CO checks.

      River: 8:spade: ($14.04, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $14.04)
      [color:#cc0000]Hero bets $4[/color], CO folds.
      Uncalled bets: $4 returned to Hero.

      Results:
      Final pot: $14.04
      [color:#ffffff]Hero Shows Kd Ad[/color]
      [color:#ffffff]UTG+1 mucks Jc Js[/color]

      On the flop I didn't continuation bet since I was pretty sure one of them had an overpair. When UTG+1 bet I was going to fold but then CO called, so I called as well thinking that I had the odds to chase a K or an A. Is this ok, or should I just have folded.
  • 6 replies
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      I don't think you do, you're getting pot odds of 3:1.
    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      immediate odds on the call are- 3$:11$ = 1:3.7
      If I assume 6 cards help me (aces and kings) its about 1:7.8 on turn and 1:7.7 on river. If I assume the one active player will check many turns (which I believe is accurate since it's now a dry pot and he'll only bet very strong hands) then my odds to make my hand to the river are about 1:3.8 (I think...)

      I'd like to know if all my calculations are more or less accurate :D Based on them I think it's a very close decision, because they also depend on whether or not CO bets the turn, and whether I can get any extra money from CO when I hit.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by gggeorgio
      immediate odds on the call are- 3$:11$ = 1:3.7
      If I assume 6 cards help me (aces and kings) its about 1:7.8 on turn and 1:7.7 on river. If I assume the one active player will check many turns (which I believe is accurate since it's now a dry pot and he'll only bet very strong hands) then my odds to make my hand to the river are about 1:3.8 (I think...)

      I'd like to know if all my calculations are more or less accurate :D Based on them I think it's a very close decision, because they also depend on whether or not CO bets the turn, and whether I can get any extra money from CO when I hit.
      Yea I guess you can't presume that, donkeys do all kind of things.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      I think this is played very bad. You didn't bet the flop because you assumed they had an over and then you called!! This makes no sense.
      On top of that, you can't be sure that all aces and kings are clean outs.

      If you would call in this pot, than just bet/fold the flop instead(i would mostly do this). If you think they have an over check/fold.

      On the turn you hit your hand, start making money. Bet it now! Here you give CO all the cards (and possibilities to hit his outs) by checking and you don't make any money. If villain has an over like JJ there i no way he can easily assume that you hit the king on the turn and fold.

      If you want to calculate your outs against a range of hands against your opponents, there is a great program called pokerstove. Download it, and see how much equity you have (on flop and turn) against the range of hands you put your villains on and the board.

      I'm at my work now, so i don't have pokerstove here. I made a quick calculation against a realistic and optimistic choice of hand your opponents can have. I put them on one hands, according to your reads, with pokerstove you can give them a range, which is much much more accurate.

      Assume that the one who pushed had 99 and the caller had JJ, than your AK has 28% to win. Again FOLD now!


      Another problem is that you and CO are 200BB deep. You don't want to draw to a pair after the flop and then play an expensive pot if he flopped a set. This is a recipe for disaster. But even if CO was AI on the flop, you should fold.

      I hope everything is clear now and you're convinced that folding is the only way as played, if not, ask.
    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      I guess I see what you mean philip. I've really confused myself with this hand... :tongue:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      UTG could have anything.
      I would probably put him all-in on that board and see what CO does.