[Closed] rl tournament, AA (from HOH)

Looks like the AA is beat to me.

I would definately call. Only thing that beats you here is a set, and I don't think he'd push all in with that directly. I think there is too much (TT-QQ) you beat here.

This is an easy problem, as there is no futher betting.

Put villain on a range, an look what your odds are against this.

You can use pokerstove for this;

Board: 9h 5c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.662% 57.51% 02.15% 81993 3061.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 40.338% 38.19% 02.15% 54444 3061.50 { QQ+, 99, 55, 22, A7s }

I didn't put TT, JJ in this range, because he won't do it with every overpair he has, so this evens out with all the QQ-KK that i assume he pushes here. So I assumed that he'll push 50% of his overpairs.
I included all sets, which is prolly a bit too pessimistic. This evens out with the 2pair hands which are very unlikely, but never impossible.
The chance that your opponent is bluffing is never zero, I picked a7s as a random hand he bluffs with. This consists of less than 10% of this range. (I believe Harrington suggests that the chance your opponent is bluffing is at least 10%).

Easy call i think.

If you're not convinced, like cannell555. You can work the other way around.

Start with the problem and a very tight range, add hands, and look when you have enough odds to call.

Odds needed:

Pot is .7 (blinds & antes) +1.2 *2 (preflop bet and call) + 3*2 (your flopbet, and his call) + his ai 15.8 k(you have the shortest stack, so it's your stack) This is 24.9k.

You need to call 20-1.2-3= 15.8k.

So you risk 15.8k to win 24.9k. This is 1:1.6. This is 1/(1+1.6)%=38.5% that you need for a call to be +ev.

If he only pushes all his sets, you're obviously a big dog to his range. But, if he also pushes only 1/4 of his overpairs, you have enough equity. And we even assumed that villain will never bluff.

Board: 9h 5c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.949% 42.95% 00.00% 38268 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 57.051% 57.05% 00.00% 50832 0.00 { KK, 99, 55, 22 }

(KK is one fourth of TT-KK overpairs)

You are looking purely at pot odds for this hands which harrington covered in book and they indicate "call" but they totaly skip idea of the fact that he called pref which indicate weaker hand (in this example he did hit set of 9) and made unusual play of going allin instead sucking all money maybe because he KNEW that other player got very strong hand and will call him ?
They both had solid image.

It really keeps me wondering because in this situation i got strong feeling to just fold the hand, set is quite possible and you must put your 10k buyin on the line to make this call.

I don't like following your gut feeling and putting him on just a set.

You need to evaluate each hand that villain can have, and give each holding a probability.

His preflop call makes it more likely that he had a weaker hand, so you give weaker hand a higher probability. You can't exclude just yet the other holdings.

In my last calculations there are 6 kings(overpairs) hands and 3*3 pocket pairs for sets. So i distributed 60% chance that i'm up against a set, and 40% against an overpair. (And he's never really bluffing with this distribution.)

Against a set normally all (or most) of the money would go in either way. When villain just calls with his set, the pot will be 12.1 and the remaining effective stack 15.8. Hero will at least either bet turn or river for at least 6k. This will make a pot op 24k and will leave Hero maximum with 9k if he folds.

You don't have an overpair often in a tournament, and you certainly don't have the time to wait for good hands. If this was a cashgame it could be a different spot. It's no shame at all to go broke with an overpair for only 66BBs. It doesn't make sense to fold you through the tournament in these spots. And then be left with 30 BB and need to shove it allin preflop with AK for a flip.

It doesn't matter if it's a 10k or 1c event.

Harrington was 'wrong' and in this spot villain had a set. Eventhough, he still thinks calling is best. This isn't without a reason. It's exactly why he put a hand like this in the book, and i hope my explenation will give you a better understanding of this way of thinking.

Also; consider this. If villain decides for whatever reason to 'slowplay' a big pair preflop like KK. This is not likely, but possible. What will he do on a harmless rainbow flop like this one, when Hero just makes what seems to be a continuation bet?

He comes in for a raise, and as a normal raise would make him comitted on this flop, he pushes.

Originally posted by Puciek
You are looking purely at pot odds for this hands which harrington covered in book and they indicate "call"

Odds is all it comes down to in poker. It is a game of maths and the one that makes better (mathematical) decisions will win in the long run, you can calculate your odds with bluffs, moves floats etc. but in the end you will never now, you only have chances and they might either be good or bad. And we are trying to take the good ones and avoid the bad ones.

Originally posted by Puciek
but they totaly skip idea of the fact that he called pref which indicate weaker hand (in this example he did hit set of 9) and made unusual play of going allin instead sucking all money maybe because he KNEW that other player got very strong hand and will call him ?
They both had solid image.

You aren't logical here, why if this player capable of making an unusual play with his set, but not with KK preflop or with AK or TT on this flop?
And if he knew the other guy is a solid thignt player and knows he is seen as one as well, then he can be sure the other player can't hold a set here, cause 99 isn't in his opening range and hence he can represent a set with any2 cards, cause the other player will have a tought call with TT-QQ and KK maybe and an easy fold with AK.
You see it again is how possible is it he is making a play the raiser? How good are the odds of this play to work?

Originally posted by Puciek
It really keeps m wondering because in this situation i got strong feeling to just fold the hand, set is quite possible and you must put your 10k buyin on the line to make this call.

Where will you stop listening to your feelings? When you feel he has AA preflop, will you fold KK or will you call with KK but fold QQ? And if you feel you won't get your oesd will you fold against the pot odds?

Once again poker is a game of maths, try to analyse the situations and do it in a mathematical way first in this progress you will have to think about many likelihoods and unlikelihoods and in the end when you still have a close decision then listen to your guts. But don't turn the thought process around first think of what you would like to do and then look if the maths might be done in a way that allows you to do your decision.

Hi everyone, the correct analysis here would be Phillipw's very thorough work-through. While his range is obviously not going to be very exact as villain's description was very generic, and we can't be sure what exactly his range is, the equilator paints a rough picture of where AA stands. As such, I make the call.

i am always loosing when have AA , damn ♦