[Closed] NL100SH Stars AJo TPTK drawy

He seems to be fishy so i'm not sure between 4bet / fold and call the raise and fold on turn if he still shows strongness

TURN [9h Th Jc] [4♣]
BB : bets $21

fold turn then , even if he's a fish I don't think he would bet with less than tptk on such a drawy board

Call flop, Fold turn. nh.

Originally posted by sw0ldo
Call flop, Fold turn. nh.

#2

Don't want to risk my whole stack on such an ugly flop. If he is rasing more on the flop I fold there, but this small raise I call as well.

Best regards,
TribunCaesar

opponent with decent AF on a drawheavy board.. we have TPTK. is that not the nuts?

i 3bet/call here all day, expecting to see some very weird combinations, sometimes 2pair, often times naked draws and J-rags.

Its an interesting hand, as we often have the beste made hand, but its not easy to continue. Lets analyze our equity. Given his preflop stats, I'd assume he has a huge range including a lot of semibluffs.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,084 games 0.002 secs 3,542,000 games/sec

Board: 9h Th Jc 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.727% 51.86% 01.86% 3674 132.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 46.273% 44.41% 01.86% 3146 132.00 { JdJs, JhJs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, AhQh, AsQs, AJs-A9s, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, As3s, Ah2h, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 7h6h, 7s6s, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs, AJo-A8o, KJo+, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KdTh, KdTs, KhTs, QJo, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, JTo, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9s, T9o, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8s, 98o, 87o, 7c6d, 7c6h, 7c6s, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6s }

Given this range, we have a coin flip with dead money. However, we have to ask ourself whether when 4-bet/calling, we are beat: his WTS indicates a little bit solid play, while his preflop stats indicate a donkey.

The best line depends on our view on the opponent and his view on us:
- What's our image at the table? If we were very active, have bet/raised a lot, he will be more inclined to move on such a board and also call lighter, which makes 4-bet/calling a good option. If we played tight/nitty, I don't see much merrit in this line
- How does villain play? Is he semibluffing a lot? If so, how does he proceed with his semibluffs on the turn? Passive people sometimes try to take it down on the flop and give up when beeing called - a call flop, check/fold turn would be best here. If he second barrels all of his semi-draws, we should call the flop and also a safe turn like the 4:d.

Summarizing: even though we have TPTK, on such a coordinated board its sometimes fine to make a weak looking laydown if we don't have information on how our opponent plays. Its just hard to make a calldown here as there are so many bad cards; we need to play optimally against his range in order to be +EV, but we don't know his range well as we don't know his tendencies. A raise/call on the flop is the other alternative. If he goes broke lightly, its fine, if he plays very loose preflop but knows when he should fold, its not a +EV play as his strong draws flip with our hand, while we are behind against a decent part of his range.

Hence, I think its very close between the weak call flop, fold turn line suggested here, and the raise/call line. Personally, I'd get it in against this opponent as the stats make me think that I'm ahead more often and he may also call with donkish hands. However, folding to a turn bet is also not a big mistake and definitely the line which lowers variance.

I don't like calling to fold to a turnbet. I never see such a guy checking a turn even if he has a hand as weak as J7o or 45hh.