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[Closed] SH 0.25/0.50 - AJs Bluff

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Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;SB$5.55:33/61 /10 /1.1/30 /20 /50 /50 ;Hero$19.70:///////;[/tg]
0.25/0.5 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A♦, J♦
MP2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 7♠, 6♥, 8♥ (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T♥ (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K♦ (2 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back..

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Results:
SB shows three of a kind, kings (Kc Kh)

Is this turn a good spot to bluff or does this play have a negative EV at these limits?


4 replies

This should be a lot -EV as you are already way behind on this flop.
He might fold some better A-high hand (which have to be without a flushdraw) but this isn't enough to invest 2 BB in a 4,5BB pot.

I'll equilate that later as I think that folding the flop can be best here.


Board: 8h 7s 6h
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 23.033 % 15.835 % 14.397 % 69.769 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 76.967 % 69.769 % 14.397 % 15.835 % 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+

As he seems to become a bit tighter (PFR wise) opponent I gave him a slightly tighter range than a PS.com TAG.
23% is not enough to call this flop so folding directly is best here.

If this opponent would have been a PS.com TAG then calling the flop and reevaluation on the turn is possible (33% equity in this case but calling is not needed yet on these limits as continuing is pretty difficult).

But let's assume he is a PS.com TAG. This is our equity at the turn:

Board: Th 8h 7s 6h
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 24.110 % 20.291 % 7.638 % 72.071 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 75.890 % 72.071 % 7.638 % 20.291 % 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

It decreased by 9% but with a gutshot we can still continue.

Now the river:

Board: Kd Th 8h 7s 6h
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 4.598 % 0.000 % 9.195 % 90.805 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 95.402 % 90.805 % 9.195 % 0.000 % 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

Here we have a very clear fold. If we even remove the hands he wouldn't bet anymore we are even more behind.

But as we called on the flop with the intention to see a showdown we can look which rivercard would be good for us.

Board: Th 8h 7s 6h 3s
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 19.588 % 15.464 % 8.247 % 76.289 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 80.412 % 76.289 % 8.247 % 15.464 % 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

Board: Th 8h 8d 7s 6h
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 20.000 % 15.789 % 8.421 % 75.789 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 80.000 % 75.789 % 8.421 % 15.789 % 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

All cards lower than a 5 or board pairing cards are good for us so in these cases we could call if we bets still his prefloprange at the river.
I don't think that he willdo this very often so the reduced range should be:

Board: Th 8h 8d 7s 6h
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 0.000 % 0.000 % 0.000 % 100.000 % AdJd
Spieler 2: 100.000 % 100.000 % 0.000 % 0.000 % 66+, AKs, ATs, AKo, ATo

Note that I just removed AQs, AJs, KQs, AQo, AJo and KQo so hands that may very well just give up or check/call to induce a bluff.
This means that we have to fold in any case if we don't improve on the river.


OK thank you ciRith. Is there an article in the gold section or higher that thoroughly explains equity calculations and how to proceed with it?


These are platinum articles as they are quiet advanced and not needed very often on the lower stakes.

Here it is:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/fixed-limit/1049/

On the river it's very simple. You just look at the potsize and devide. If the potsize is 8 BB and you have to call 1 BB then 1/8 = 12,5% so you need 12,5%+ equity for a profitable call on the river.
The turn here can often be played by odds and outs and else folded.
And the flopequity should be 30% if it was 3-bet preflop and 37% is only raised. (That's in short what is written in there.)