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[Closed] $16: AKs Bubble

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Poker Stars, $15 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 3,757
BTN: 2,948
SB: 3,975
CO: 2,820

Pre-Flop: (1,050) K♥ A♥ dealt to Hero (BB)
1 fold, BTN raises to 2,898 and is All-In, SB raises to 3,925 and is All-In, Hero ?

Nash says we call with TT+, AKs here but I'm not sure how we are for $EV and I don't think I would call with TT, JJ.


7 replies

I call this, you have to lose vs both oppenents in order to be bubbleboy. Just call, since we have a good hand, and we dont risk that much. Since I think sb will at least call with AT+ 77+ here, I will overcall AQ+ 99+. TT is a snapcall for me.

nash is weird. Ill think about this one, but I dont get it:

BU 37.3%, 22+ Ax+ K4s+ K9o+ Q6s+ QTo+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 76s 65s
SB 11.0%, 66+ A7s+ A9o+ KQs
BB 2.6%, TT+ AKs

Why in the name of everything that is sacred, I should call this uberloose sb range with such a tight range? I override nash here. Dont get it, so i call vs ranges, not what nash tells me to call with. There is very little icm tax, so little risk of bubbling out, and AQ is a good hand here imo. I overovercalled on the bubble today with QQ, despite the fact that I was 90% sure I was dominated by the small blind. The reason was, that if 3 players are already all in, and I was the big stack, the risk of bubbling out is absolutely minimal, especially because the sb shorty was most likely to hold two overcards (KK or AA), so my odds of losing vs the other big stacks with QQ is absolutly minimal. I find this nashrange very weird and nitty.


Ty nick, I hadn't realised that both villains need to beat me here for me to bubble out, this does make it easier to call. Generally i'm eager to fold in these spots as it is likely 3rd is guranteed or SB becomes crippled.

Tired now but going to re-read this in the morning for sure :)


chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi ManniXXX, so me and Nick cause we have no life and all, decided to run the calculations. It turns out that AKo is a fold here (we actually lose a big chunk of the prizepool for calling so wide there).

The gain in EV for calling AKs is 0.05% of the prizepool on average.


Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi ManniXXX, so me and Nick cause we have no life and all, decided to run the calculations. It turns out that AKo is a fold here (we actually lose a big chunk of the prizepool for calling so wide there).

The gain in EV for calling AKs is 0.05% of the prizepool on average.

...on these maybe too loose ranges, Im actually thinkin aks is a fold.


Ty both very much. I guess it's very marginal then.

Originally posted by helemaalnicks
I overovercalled on the bubble today with QQ, despite the fact that I was 90% sure I was dominated by the small blind. The reason was, that if 3 players are already all in, and I was the big stack, the risk of bubbling out is absolutely minimal, especially because the sb shorty was most likely to hold two overcards (KK or AA), so my odds of losing vs the other big stacks with QQ is absolutly minimal.

Poker Stars, $15 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 1,870
Hero (BB): 7,319
BTN: 4,311

Pre-Flop: (1,050) 8♠ 8♥ dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to 4,261 and is All-In, SB calls 1,520 and is All-In, Hero folds

Flop: (4,390) 3♠ 9♣ 4♠ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: (4,390) 2♠ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (4,390) 3♣ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 4,390 Pot
SB showed K♣ K♥ (two pair, Kings and Threes) and WON 4,390 (+2,520 NET)
BTN showed 9♦ 5♦ (two pair, Nines and Threes) and LOST (-1,870 NET)

Is this the kind of situation you mean nick? We obviously know SB has a hand here but BU is pushing so wide, I feel like I could knock him out here and we're past the bubble too so it feels like I should be calling...


it's not the same situation, since the sb guy has kings, but thats accidental. He would (or at least he should) also call with A9o for example, or with KJs. That would be the reason why I would call here, because im not surely dominated, and if i have a read on the BU that he pushes ultraloose, then sb could have that read too, which drastically improves your hands. It's still a tough spot I think. My QQ call was actually fairly easy tbh.

I found it:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t5230)
UTG (t1880)
Button (t4795)
SB (t1595)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q.
UTG raises to t455, Button raises to t4770, SB calls t1470 (All-In), Hero raises to t5205, UTG folds.

Flop: (t12075) 9, 4, J (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t12075) 2 (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t12075) 5 (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t11640

Results in white below:
Hero has Qc Qd (one pair, queens).
Button has Jh Ah (one pair, jacks).
SB has Kd Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins t6375. SB wins t5265.

We know BU doesnt push superloose here, b/c he pushes over a raise, however, with QQ we have an easy call. SB pushes here with QQ+, and possibly also with AK, so we're far behind, but the dead money in the pot, and my equity vs BU made me call anyway. He could easily push a relatively wide range here, since we're on the bubble, and the sb is rather short.


chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Originally posted by ManniXXX
Ty both very much. I guess it's very marginal then.

Originally posted by helemaalnicks
I overovercalled on the bubble today with QQ, despite the fact that I was 90% sure I was dominated by the small blind. The reason was, that if 3 players are already all in, and I was the big stack, the risk of bubbling out is absolutely minimal, especially because the sb shorty was most likely to hold two overcards (KK or AA), so my odds of losing vs the other big stacks with QQ is absolutly minimal.

Poker Stars, $15 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 1,870
Hero (BB): 7,319
BTN: 4,311

Pre-Flop: (1,050) 8♠ 8♥ dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to 4,261 and is All-In, SB calls 1,520 and is All-In, Hero folds

Flop: (4,390) 3♠ 9♣ 4♠ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: (4,390) 2♠ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (4,390) 3♣ (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 4,390 Pot
SB showed K♣ K♥ (two pair, Kings and Threes) and WON 4,390 (+2,520 NET)
BTN showed 9♦ 5♦ (two pair, Nines and Threes) and LOST (-1,870 NET)

Is this the kind of situation you mean nick? We obviously know SB has a hand here but BU is pushing so wide, I feel like I could knock him out here and we're past the bubble too so it feels like I should be calling...

i'd call this with 88. but it's a lot easier cause we're in the money here.

with nick's QQ, well... QQ is the nuts ;).