[NL2-NL10] NL50 I have 9 outs here?

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      UTG+2: $30.55
      MP1: $30.45
      MP2: $8.50
      CO: $47.80
      BTN: $52.50
      SB: $24
      Hero (BB): $10
      UTG: $62.28
      UTG+1: $25.55

      Pre-Flop: 4:club: 2:diamond: dealt to Hero (BB)
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($1.75) 3:club: A:diamond: 4:diamond: (3 Players)
      Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $3.50, 2 folds

      Results: $1.75 Pot

      I'm thinking at first glance that a 4, a 2 or a 5 give me the best hand.

      2 + 3 + 4 = 9 outs.

      Do you think this is correct and should i have called this overbet? I think i would have called a 2/3 pot size but i just don't know what this overbet means. I'm thinking that i may actually have far worse outs than i originally saw at first glance....

      Oh, i havn't taken into account the flushdraw (oops) i'm thinking 6 outs now... (assuming the villain has FD)
  • 5 replies
    • larigpt
      Joined: 22.02.2008 Posts: 4
      I wouldnt count deuses as Outs
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Fold is a must in such situations :P or I am wrong? Lets see what judges advice.
    • 098799
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Hi DaPhunk, I'm glad you ask questions if you think you have leaks in some topic,

      and the answer on such flop is - you don't know. Why? Two things:

      a. Every deuce makes a one-card wheel possible. With their limping range they might be able to have one easily, so I'm not counting deuces (bet once at most if I hit my deuce, fold to a raise).

      b. Every diamond makes a flush, and still your oponents are likely to have a fd. So the same story - I don't like to invest whole stack on drawing dead hand, but a straight is a strong hand even on 3-suited board. It deserves a bet.

      c. Every four is imo clean out.

      But coming back to the actual hand, with such an overbet on the flop I'm not calling despite the number of my outs - 6 or 9, doesn't matter since I'm a dog :) .
    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      I would say UTG+2's range pre is all pps, SCs and Ax, with low AX and SC less frequent than pps and higher Ax.

      This means his flop range consists of FDs, sets and A3, A4 for two pair. So the 4 isn't always a clean out, but usually you have 4 outs vs set or 8 outs vs FD, unless villain has 65dd. A five is actually unlikely, as the only 5x hand in his range is 65dd.

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 31.641% 31.13% 00.51% 5547 91.50 { 4c2d }
      Hand 1: 68.359% 67.85% 00.51% 12090 91.50 { AA, 44-33, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 7d6d, 6d5d, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ah4c, Ac3s, Ad3c, Ah3s, As3d, 8d7s }
    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144