[NL2-NL10] NL50 AKo DONK

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $59,97
      BB:
      $50,00
      UTG:
      $25,43
      UTG+1:
      $28,66
      UTG+2:
      $12,64
      MP1:
      $68,60
      Hero:
      $8,50
      MP3:
      $21,50
      CO:
      $46,52
      BU:
      $49,97

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:heart: , K:diamond:
      UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0,50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2,50, 3 folds, SB calls $2,25, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($6,00) T:spade: , 2:club: , 5:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $6,00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $12,00


      I sincerely am SURE he is bluffing with his high VPIP and AF. Nevertheless I only count 6 outs and thats insufficient with 2:1 calling odds.

      Any thoughts how to tackle these situations based on Stats VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS ??
  • 8 replies
    • heartburn13
      heartburn13
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.09.2008 Posts: 37
      first of all u only got 6 outs if he not bluffing, if he is bluffing you are ahead. so the stats say to you he is bluffing, what about old fashioned betting patterns have you a read there if so take the pot down, if you are not sure then 6 outs is right. imho
    • bogie
      bogie
      Global
      Joined: 23.09.2007 Posts: 109
      Add to the hud "donks flop" you will get a better READ on villian. :)
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      I'm sorry Gerv, but it's too oponent-rependent and you cannot read all information from stats.

      I mean, there's a time in every poker player's life when he realises it's not all about clicking but also observing and making notes. Here's a spot in which I'm definitely making a note and exploit it later...
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by 098799
      I mean, there's a time in every poker player's life when he realises it's not all about clicking but also observing and making notes. Here's a spot in which I'm definitely making a note and exploit it later...
      So you advise calling this one and see what he has so I can exploit it later? (Paying for information)
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      The hand itself does not look too encouraging for a call, but if you have any reads and want to find out if you're right, yes, it's paying for information probably.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Gerv
      [
      I sincerely am SURE he is bluffing with his high VPIP and AF.

      Then you must call if only to see if you are right. Paying for exploitable information is unlikely to be profitable in a game with a large enough pool of players.

      High AF is not such a good measure of "propensity to bluff" since it can easily be skewed by certain playing styles.

      Aggression frequency gives a better idea of how likely most villains are to be bluffing.

      Some stats programs have a "donkbet flop and fold to a raise" percentage.

      The raw "folds flop to a raise" may give a hint as to whether villain likes to lead weak.

      A quick approximate calculation:

      Villain limp calls half his limping range and on this flop bets JT+ and 22-66. He also bluffs 1/3 of the time . Our equity is either 20% or about 60%. This gives us a profit of just over $2 on our call given a whole bunch of possibly false assumptions. Our call would be neutral EV if villain bluffed 20% of the time.
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Hi Gerv

      After reading this thread (and all your others too) I can see you are playing the numbers quite well. Your mathematical understanding of the game is impressive. The judges (and a few subtle peers) may be hinting that you can improve your game by reading the villians actual gameplay within the context of the current game, and then using the stats to back-up your table reads, rather than the opposite. (its called "juxtoposition" and it can help you get out of the "past results" trap of reason. This trap can also be undone by applying the Hiesenberg Uncertainty Principle, but thats advanced quantum mathematics, beyond my abilities)
      Again, I do hope my mindless ramblings help you improve your game.
      Oh, and you said you just "knew" he was bluffing. Try this thread: Intuition
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Thanks for the reply, I will take more notice on how to deal with calling stations and sudden looseness of passive players :)

      And I will start learning it by reading the Gold article first =}

      - Gerv