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[Closed] 11$ JJ in SB

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Atoks
Joined: 01.06.2008

Seat 1: Naty_Kurd ($825 in chips)
Seat 2: John RAMBO31 ($1,825 in chips)
Seat 3: R0FLCoPT0R ($1,275 in chips)
Seat 4: r1lericain ($3,645 in chips)
Seat 5: Mriepl2 ($3,210 in chips)
Seat 8: Thornton59 ($1,380 in chips)
Seat 9: El Zipa ($1,460 in chips)
Seat 10: HERO ($1,380 in chips) HAND: JC JS

ANTES/BLINDS
HERO posts small blind ($25), Naty_Kurd posts big blind ($50).

PRE-FLOP
John RAMBO31 folds, R0FLCoPT0R folds, r1lericain folds, Mriepl2 calls $50, Thornton59 folds, El Zipa folds, HERO bets $175, Naty_Kurd folds, Mriepl2 calls $150.

FLOP [board cards: 9S,KS,TD ]
HERO bets $325, Mriepl2 bets $3,010 and is all-in, HERO?

OK here's some back ground, I didn't play with Mriepl2 much yet so can't tell what kind of a player he is. Was pretty tight at the table, however I did realize my mistake as soon as I clicked "bet" and I know I should've bet more (like raise to 250-300). Is it good to shove on this flop?


2 replies

Bet 200pref (150+50 for every limper) also get readable hand corverter, this one is horrible.
While for floop, this one is quite tought but lets try to figure out his hand.
He limped pref, and then called raise which is suspicious and indicates a fish (i doubt that he is floating because it's good players move). I would say that he most likely got pocketpair here, because fishes can't seem to let them go, also low ace is possible since it seems like a good hand for em. KJ/KQ/QJ is also possible, they can't fold face cards. I doubt that he got suited connectors, fishes don't value them.
So we got his aprox handrange: A-low, pocket pair, couple face cards.

Now to the floop, 9TK
So lets see what goes on with his hand, to simlyfy i will say that there is equal chance that he got any hand from his range:
30% time he got A-low, in best case he got pair of 9 or tens, otherwise he got nothing, here you win here 80% time.
30% time he got pocketpair, he either got pottom pair or a set of 99, with tens he would most likely raise pref, you win here 80% time.
30% time he got couple face cards, then you are 40% dog here.
Since he is playing tight, there is also 10% bluff chance.

You make standard c-bet and he reraises you allin, and knowing our chances and the fact that here we got 2:1 odds (you can't win more than you have) lets do the math.
60% time we got 80% chance to win which equals 48% chance to win.
30% of time we got 40% chance to win, which equals 12% chance to win.
Add to that 10% bluff chance, and you are 70% to win the hand (48%+12%+10%=70), with so great 2:1 odds, i would say its very easy call.

All these calculations are estimates, if you want play with them and equilator to get exact results :)


chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi all,

Preflop we should raise to 200

On the flop, after we bet and he shoves, with our 4 outs for the gutshot, 2 outs for the jack, and 1 out for the backdoor flushdraw, I prefer a call here. I think he's also bluffing a ton, so we sometimes have the best hand. If we were deeper I could find a fold, but even then I think he shows up with a spastic bluff more often here than he does with a king.