Discussion thread: Bubble strategy

NEW: Bubble strategy (2): Single Table SNGs
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NEW: Bubble strategy (3): Multi-Table SNGs Part 1
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I sucked at all the tests.

@Unam - lessons in this module are dedicated to specific types of SNGs, so the quizes here are less intuitive than they are in other modules - they're about to force us to make more icm-based calculations. Btw I sucked some of them even during the creation/feedbacking process ♦

Anyway, enjoy our latest lesson guys:

NEW: Bubble strategy (4): Multi-Table SNGs Part 2
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NEW: Bubble strategy (5): Satellites and DONs
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FOLD imo.

Depends how big are rewards

Steel blinds from weak players

Try to avaiod all-in without seeing flop. Its too risky.

In Bubble strategy (5): Satellites and DONs it says:

"ICM’s biggest flaw is that it does not account for positions. With stacks deep compared to the blinds, the effect is negligible. With shallow stacks, the order in which the players blind out is of the utmost importance. In the above example, it is clear that in reality, BU’s chances are much better than those of MP1, as it is the latter who will face a forced all-in sooner. Similarly, EP’s chances look better than those of BB because, if both short stacks survive, it is BB who will be forced to go all-in sooner. ICM does not account for these differences, but you should."

But isn't it what Future Game Simulation is doing?

That sounds right that this is about future game simulation

Cheers,
SDK1987

ICM tools like ICMIZER and SitnGo Wiz say to you to push with a range of Nearly 30 % Which is 22+ , Ax + , K5s + , K9o + , Q8s + , QTo + J9s + , JTo , T9s When short-stacked , this ftom UTG , and the article is saying That you should wait for a good spot to act , and to try to do this tight .

I don't know wich of the two I should follow, if you have any advices please tell me!

Many thanks.

Howdy, raasantos

it depends! What is the payout? How are the other stacks? Will the blinds soon go up? What is your exact stack size?
Pushing from UTG gives you Fold Equity and the guarantee to play at least for the BB+SB+Ante, while waiting for the next hand already automatically lets you post a BB without knowing what kind of hand you get.
So, if you could specify a scenario, it is easier to give an advice. Unfortunately in general i have to remain vague :-)

9 man SnG, blinds 100/200. 150/300, 200/400 would all have almost the same range, short stacked would be something about 1k chips, or less and the range would be 30% and a little looser in other positions.

To be more specific:

Blinds: 100/200, 25 Ante, 6 players

UTG - Hero (t1092)
HIJ (t3633)
CO (t1099)
BTN(1810)
SB(4357)
BB(1059)

If the blinds were higher I would have a looser range, I would say something about 35% to 38%.

Considering that we have loosers callers on the table, the ICM would tight up but I still think it would be a looser range than what the article said to be a good spot.

You will get a lot of calls from SB+BB

SB because he can afford it and wants to become monster CL, BB because he can not afford to give up his Fold Equity.
Please have a look at the detailled analysis at the HRC: HRC

So should I just shove with premiun hands or should I shove with the 30% range that icmizer told me?

It still depends:

For shoving with 30%:
- you play an unexploitable tactic, which mathematically cannot be abused

For shoving premiums:
- In a game where you have an edge over your opponents
- you exploit tendencies of your opponents (i.e. here "they call much too wide")

Nice!

In micro limits, as I have been playing, they usually call to much, and sometimes the board doesnt help, so I guess I have to get better at reading my opponents and then I can do the best action at each street...

By the way, I know this is not the right place to ask you that, but Im still not convinced... Is it possible to improve our bankroll playing micro limits in $0.50 9 Man SnG at PS? Or should I invest more money and play bigger buy-ins like 1,50?

Thank you so much!

I am not personally playing SNG (anymore... a long time ago :-)). My guess is that the games are similar on 50c and $1.50, but of course you have 3x the BI, which should mean 3x the bankroll.
It is hard to give a concrete advice and i will tell you why:
A) Imagine you are playing job next to your job as a IT-consultant, earning an imaginary $4.000 per month who plays sometimes in the local casino and you have a long experience in playing different games online (but now want to take it more serious). After expenses, you still have $2.500 left because you live very frugal. I would recommend you to start at least with the $1.50ies because you could very easily afford a re-deposit in the case it goes wrong. Plus if you are learning and reviewing hands etc, you will save yourself time in moving up.
B) Youare a student, living of the allowance of your parents. After rent etc. you have $50 for leisure per month and you need to split it across bars, poker, cinema. On top you are pretty new to poker and have just learned about ICM. Here my clear tip would be to invest more time into learning and gathering experience rather safely at the micro-micros. It also lowers your risk of ruin to play lower BI with the same BR.

Of course you will never be exactly category A or category B. A BRM is not a fixed thing, it is your personal adaption on how much risk you can afford and how you would cope with swings (in both directions).

tl,dr: up to you really, just don't do stupid things like 4 or 4.000 BuyIn BRM ...