Discussion thread: Bubble strategy

  • Poll
    • What's your decision with AA here?

      • 60
        Call
        58%
      • 43
        Fold
        42%
      Total: 103 Votes
    • gaaish
      gaaish
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,258
      Imagine you are on the bubble in a satellite (7 players left, top 6 places paid with a ticket) and the SB goes all-in:



      In this hand you face the question about the prize for taking a risk. If you call and win the hand - which is very likely with your monster - you are almost guaranteed to cash in the satellite. On the other hand, you could also lose and bust, while folding still keeps you in a very safe position, since there are two very short stacks on the table who are about to be hit by the blinds pretty soon.

      What's your decision?

      Unsure? We have the solution for you!

      NEW: Bubble strategy (5): Satellites and DONs
      Article
      Video
      Quiz

      -----------

      Previous lessons:

      NEW: Bubble strategy (1): Introduction
      Article
      Video
      Quiz

      NEW: Bubble strategy (2): Single Table SNGs
      Article
      Video
      Quiz

      NEW: Bubble strategy (3): Multi-Table SNGs Part 1
      Article
      Video
      Quiz

      NEW: Bubble strategy (4): Multi-Table SNGs Part 2
      Article
      Video
      Quiz
  • 23 replies
    • gaaish
      gaaish
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,258
      NEW: Bubble strategy (2): Single Table SNGs
      Article
      Video
      Quiz
    • gaaish
      gaaish
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,258
      NEW: Bubble strategy (3): Multi-Table SNGs Part 1
      Article
      Video
      Quiz
    • Unam
      Unam
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      I sucked at all the tests. :(
    • gaaish
      gaaish
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,258
      @Unam - lessons in this module are dedicated to specific types of SNGs, so the quizes here are less intuitive than they are in other modules - they're about to force us to make more icm-based calculations. Btw I sucked some of them even during the creation/feedbacking process :D


      Anyway, enjoy our latest lesson guys:

      NEW: Bubble strategy (4): Multi-Table SNGs Part 2
      Article
      Video
      Quiz
    • gaaish
      gaaish
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,258
      NEW: Bubble strategy (5): Satellites and DONs
      Article
      Video
      Quiz
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      FOLD imo.
    • ZapOut
      ZapOut
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2011 Posts: 222
      Depends how big are rewards :)
    • WpIoNker
      WpIoNker
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2014 Posts: 11
      Steel blinds from weak players
    • WpIoNker
      WpIoNker
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2014 Posts: 11
      Try to avaiod all-in without seeing flop. Its too risky.
    • nikihunden
      nikihunden
      Gold
      Joined: 31.05.2015 Posts: 32
      In Bubble strategy (5): Satellites and DONs it says:

      "ICM’s biggest flaw is that it does not account for positions. With stacks deep compared to the blinds, the effect is negligible. With shallow stacks, the order in which the players blind out is of the utmost importance. In the above example, it is clear that in reality, BU’s chances are much better than those of MP1, as it is the latter who will face a forced all-in sooner. Similarly, EP’s chances look better than those of BB because, if both short stacks survive, it is BB who will be forced to go all-in sooner. ICM does not account for these differences, but you should."

      But isn't it what Future Game Simulation is doing?
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 27,100
      That sounds right that this is about future game simulation :f_thumbsup:

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • raasantos
      raasantos
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2016 Posts: 32
      ICM tools like ICMIZER and SitnGo Wiz say to you to push with a range of Nearly 30 % Which is 22+ , Ax + , K5s + , K9o + , Q8s + , QTo + J9s + , JTo , T9s When short-stacked , this ftom UTG , and the article is saying That you should wait for a good spot to act , and to try to do this tight .

      I don't know wich of the two I should follow, if you have any advices please tell me!

      Many thanks.
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,113
      Howdy, raasantos

      it depends! What is the payout? How are the other stacks? Will the blinds soon go up? What is your exact stack size?
      Pushing from UTG gives you Fold Equity and the guarantee to play at least for the BB+SB+Ante, while waiting for the next hand already automatically lets you post a BB without knowing what kind of hand you get.
      So, if you could specify a scenario, it is easier to give an advice. Unfortunately in general i have to remain vague :-)
    • raasantos
      raasantos
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2016 Posts: 32
      9 man SnG, blinds 100/200. 150/300, 200/400 would all have almost the same range, short stacked would be something about 1k chips, or less and the range would be 30% and a little looser in other positions.

      To be more specific:

      Blinds: 100/200, 25 Ante, 6 players

      UTG - Hero (t1092)
      HIJ (t3633)
      CO (t1099)
      BTN(1810)
      SB(4357)
      BB(1059)

      If the blinds were higher I would have a looser range, I would say something about 35% to 38%.

      Considering that we have loosers callers on the table, the ICM would tight up but I still think it would be a looser range than what the article said to be a good spot.
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,113
      You will get a lot of calls from SB+BB

      SB because he can afford it and wants to become monster CL, BB because he can not afford to give up his Fold Equity.
      Please have a look at the detailled analysis at the HRC: HRC
    • raasantos
      raasantos
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2016 Posts: 32
      So should I just shove with premiun hands or should I shove with the 30% range that icmizer told me?
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,113
      It still depends:

      For shoving with 30%:
      - you play an unexploitable tactic, which mathematically cannot be abused

      For shoving premiums:
      - In a game where you have an edge over your opponents
      - you exploit tendencies of your opponents (i.e. here "they call much too wide")
    • raasantos
      raasantos
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2016 Posts: 32
      Nice!

      In micro limits, as I have been playing, they usually call to much, and sometimes the board doesnt help, so I guess I have to get better at reading my opponents and then I can do the best action at each street...

      By the way, I know this is not the right place to ask you that, but Im still not convinced... Is it possible to improve our bankroll playing micro limits in $0.50 9 Man SnG at PS? Or should I invest more money and play bigger buy-ins like 1,50?

      Thank you so much!
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,113
      I am not personally playing SNG (anymore... a long time ago :-)). My guess is that the games are similar on 50c and $1.50, but of course you have 3x the BI, which should mean 3x the bankroll.
      It is hard to give a concrete advice and i will tell you why:
      A) Imagine you are playing job next to your job as a IT-consultant, earning an imaginary $4.000 per month who plays sometimes in the local casino and you have a long experience in playing different games online (but now want to take it more serious). After expenses, you still have $2.500 left because you live very frugal. I would recommend you to start at least with the $1.50ies because you could very easily afford a re-deposit in the case it goes wrong. Plus if you are learning and reviewing hands etc, you will save yourself time in moving up.
      B) Youare a student, living of the allowance of your parents. After rent etc. you have $50 for leisure per month and you need to split it across bars, poker, cinema. On top you are pretty new to poker and have just learned about ICM. Here my clear tip would be to invest more time into learning and gathering experience rather safely at the micro-micros. It also lowers your risk of ruin to play lower BI with the same BR.

      Of course you will never be exactly category A or category B. A BRM is not a fixed thing, it is your personal adaption on how much risk you can afford and how you would cope with swings (in both directions).

      tl,dr: up to you really, just don't do stupid things like 4 or 4.000 BuyIn BRM ...
    • 1
    • 2